Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin • Hacker News Board

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#21

Post by splistud » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:13 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #7

sleavey wrote: post #6

It's worth noting that the risk of death stated for AstraZenica in this article, one in two million, surely relies on proper and rigorous reporting of the causes of deaths. As a thought experiment, let's say someone aged 65 happens to die one month after having received the first dose of the vaccine. Are we sure that the local coroner will check whether the vaccine had anything to do with their death if there is some…

Yes it is very true that not very many people understand risk enough to effectively compare it amongst other risks.

And it is also true that no one can effectively compare risks when the assumptions can not yet be relied upon

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#22

Post by IdontRememberIt » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:14 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #18

IdontRememberIt wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife has a "light" autoimmune condition. She is very sensitive to this topic. She was strongly recommended by several doctors to not be vaccinated. Not because of the short term possible effects but because of the unknown possible undocumented side effect which could be "triggered" in a distant future.

That doesn't sound grounded in science?

If she were 70, it would not be a conversation topic (she would have been vaccinated as the benefits would considerably outweigh the probability of risks short, medium and long term). But as she is young, there is a big question mark. And as it is not an exact science and nobody knows...

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#23

Post by gfodor » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:14 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #17

gfodor wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False. It could very well turn out that mRNA vaccines specifically have long term side effects with other medications or underlying conditions we do not yet understand, which would, for example, warrant the choice of not using them in children, who present low risk to COVID. This may not mean not vaccinating overall, but it could determine which vaccine to choose from the selection of mechanisms. Not mRNA vaccines in…

We know that the disease itself has long term effects and they are showing up. We don't have any evidence yet that there are any long-term side effects to any of the vaccines. There have been some that of course have had heart problems or death, but those are rare, and are heavily outweighed by the benefits of the vaccine. I guess I hear your point that we should defer to knowledge as it is gained, and that's a good…

The issue becomes clearly in focus if you consider the question of what to do about children. They do not have the same risks of COVID, nor its long term effects, in its current form. If they did, we'd be in a much deeper crisis and (valid) panic about COVID than we already are.

Under those assumptions, and the ones I've stated, it becomes clear at the very least this is a difficult question. This doesn't mean we can't form good priors, but it does mean that anyone discounting that process by claiming it is self-evident beyond a reasonable doubt is the kind of behavior we should push back against given it will ultimately cause more problems than it solves.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#24

Post by sleavey » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:15 PM UTC

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #14

sleavey wrote: post #6

It's worth noting that the risk of death stated for AstraZenica in this article, one in two million, surely relies on proper and rigorous reporting of the causes of deaths. As a thought experiment, let's say someone aged 65 happens to die one month after having received the first dose of the vaccine. Are we sure that the local coroner will check whether the vaccine had anything to do with their death if there is some…

And what about the other way around? What is the chance that a 65 year old randomly dies of something that could be misattributed to the covid vaccine. It would only take 2 misattributions for the risk to be zero.

Indeed, and that doesn't change my point (though I'm not accusing you of saying that it should). Do we believe accuracy in such accounting - at least in Australia - is error-proof to at least one in a million? Could it be 10x better or worse? 100x? Where's the line? I actually have no idea where you would even begin to work out the accuracy of such a number. For aspirin too, for that matter.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#25

Post by th0ma5 » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:15 PM UTC

cortic wrote: post #19

th0ma5 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short-term reaction side effects are not the same as any potential long-term side effects. The long-term effects of being infected with the disease are definitely known to be worse than any unknown potential long term side effects that are suspected so far of the vaccine.

>The long-term effects of being infected with the disease are definitely known to be worse than any unknown.. Seems an indefensible statement. You can't possibly know how 'bad' the unknown is, its unknown.

I guess I was speaking to all of the guesses that people have so far as to what any long-term effects may be... I haven't heard anything that seems plausible that is worse than the organ failure that the disease itself can produce. There's a lot of Cronenberg style ideas about what could potentially happen across generations but I think all of that comes from just a complete misunderstanding of what mRNA is. But I haven't heard any long-term side effects of the vaccine that seem plausible so far.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#26

Post by gfodor » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:17 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #25

cortic wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The long-term effects of being infected with the disease are definitely known to be worse than any unknown.. Seems an indefensible statement. You can't possibly know how 'bad' the unknown is, its unknown.

I guess I was speaking to all of the guesses that people have so far as to what any long-term effects may be... I haven't heard anything that seems plausible that is worse than the organ failure that the disease itself can produce. There's a lot of Cronenberg style ideas about what could potentially happen across generations but I think all of that comes from just a complete misunderstanding of what mRNA is. But I ha…

The people talking about mRNA are largely confused except those who are talking about the potential cytotoxicity of the spike protein, it leaking into the bloodstream, and the potential short and long term consequences if that is happening with any non-zero probability (given the scale of the deployment.)

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#27

Post by th0ma5 » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:17 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #23

th0ma5 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know that the disease itself has long term effects and they are showing up. We don't have any evidence yet that there are any long-term side effects to any of the vaccines. There have been some that of course have had heart problems or death, but those are rare, and are heavily outweighed by the benefits of the vaccine. I guess I hear your point that we should defer to knowledge as it is gained, and that's a good…

The issue becomes clearly in focus if you consider the question of what to do about children. They do not have the same risks of COVID, nor its long term effects, in its current form. If they did, we'd be in a much deeper crisis and (valid) panic about COVID than we already are. Under those assumptions, and the ones I've stated, it becomes clear at the very least this is a difficult question. This doesn't mean we can…

I haven't heard that children are any less susceptible to long-term effects of covid-19. In fact I've mostly heard the opposite that they are just as at risk of long-term side effects of the disease as anyone else.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#28

Post by gfodor » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:18 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #27

gfodor wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue becomes clearly in focus if you consider the question of what to do about children. They do not have the same risks of COVID, nor its long term effects, in its current form. If they did, we'd be in a much deeper crisis and (valid) panic about COVID than we already are. Under those assumptions, and the ones I've stated, it becomes clear at the very least this is a difficult question. This doesn't mean we can…

I haven't heard that children are any less susceptible to long-term effects of covid-19. In fact I've mostly heard the opposite that they are just as at risk of long-term side effects of the disease as anyone else.

I would be curious in any good research on this subject since it may affect my own decision making.

Note: not dumb articles like the one this post is about but published papers.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#29

Post by th0ma5 » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:20 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #28

th0ma5 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard that children are any less susceptible to long-term effects of covid-19. In fact I've mostly heard the opposite that they are just as at risk of long-term side effects of the disease as anyone else.

I would be curious in any good research on this subject since it may affect my own decision making. Note: not dumb articles like the one this post is about but published papers.

Yes yes the /r/COVID19 catalogs preprint articles as they appear with some discussion, and while that isn't of course peer-reviewed it's still something to monitor.

Re: Getting a Covid jab is safer than taking aspirin

#30

Post by adventured » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 7:20 PM UTC

th0ma5 wrote: post #5

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #3

Well, at least I'm consistent - I avoid taking aspiring needlessly just as I avoid pointless vaccination. The mental circuitry feels the same in both cases - Strong belief that the body will successfully defend itself. I mean, what was the point of all that evolution if it couldn't?

The fact that your immune system will overreact to the virus is probably the main reason to be vaccinated.

> The fact that your immune system will overreact to the virus

It's not a fact, first of all. Second, the vast majority do not suffer that reaction or anything remotely close to it.

For the majority Covid is equivalent to getting a mild cold, or less. Now that's actually a fact, derived from the rather enormous trove of data we have on outcomes at this point.