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Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

academia.edu

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Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#21

Post by sadness3 »

errantmind wrote: post #5
QuadrupleA wrote: post #2

Heartened to see Taleb taking a skeptical stance on Bitcoin and crypto - last time I looked into it he was a proponent due to its decentralization and existence outside the monoculture of mainstream finance. The sooner we can move past these staggeringly inefficient environment-destroying pump-and-dump schemes the better off we'll all be.

Something can be overvalued without being worthless. Also, the environment argument is inconclusive. Using a lot of power isn't the problem, it is how the power was generated and whether or not it was excess capacity

It's also about the systems it's replacing, which all the careful studies I've seen have rated as even less efficient. It also doesn't take into account future improvements in energy efficiency, which in the case of Ethereum are near and profound.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#22

Post by sadness3 »

There seems to be a real under-appreciation by the Hacker News crowd of how profound the use case of cryptocurrencies as simple money is.

Perhaps because we have a sample bias towards people who are served adequately by traditional financial infrastructure, and people who are disproportionately preoccupied with blockchain as a potential component of software systems.

As an example, most kids in starting school today will probably have years of experience being their own banker, using apps on their phones, before they ever step foot in place which employs bankers. At that point they may not bother, since the cryptocurrency ecosystem will already provide all the same facilities. This is profoundly disruptive.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#23

Post by sadness3 »

esens wrote: post #19
xiphias2 wrote: post #17

I’m pleased that Taleb doesn’t want to own bitcoin. He’s a millionaire already, and he already has a bank account for a long time, and enjoyed US dominance for all his life. Meanwhile finally El Salvadorian US immigrants will able to pay the rent and food for their parents stuck in El Salvador without a 20% markup 3 months for now.

I understand the money transfer problem. Cryptocurrency seems like a good idea in that case. I question though why choose Bitcoin? I guess a lot of people support it. But it is far from stable, so no one in the right mind, especially poor people should hold significant Bitcoins because it is speculative rather than stable. I guess stable coins do not have the wide acceptance that bitcoin has? Why not USDC or similar…

Network effects. No better option which is universally agreed as the _next_ best option. It will get easier and faster to send. Email used to need a C compiler and 2 days to send.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#24

Post by IfOnlyYouKnew »

errantmind wrote: post #5
QuadrupleA wrote: post #2

Heartened to see Taleb taking a skeptical stance on Bitcoin and crypto - last time I looked into it he was a proponent due to its decentralization and existence outside the monoculture of mainstream finance. The sooner we can move past these staggeringly inefficient environment-destroying pump-and-dump schemes the better off we'll all be.

Something can be overvalued without being worthless. Also, the environment argument is inconclusive. Using a lot of power isn't the problem, it is how the power was generated and whether or not it was excess capacity

> it is how the power was generated and whether or not it was excess capacity

Coal and no, because that's the marginal production mode in China.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#25

Post by x4e »

esens wrote: post #19
xiphias2 wrote: post #17

I’m pleased that Taleb doesn’t want to own bitcoin. He’s a millionaire already, and he already has a bank account for a long time, and enjoyed US dominance for all his life. Meanwhile finally El Salvadorian US immigrants will able to pay the rent and food for their parents stuck in El Salvador without a 20% markup 3 months for now.

I understand the money transfer problem. Cryptocurrency seems like a good idea in that case. I question though why choose Bitcoin? I guess a lot of people support it. But it is far from stable, so no one in the right mind, especially poor people should hold significant Bitcoins because it is speculative rather than stable. I guess stable coins do not have the wide acceptance that bitcoin has? Why not USDC or similar…

Bitcoin is more just used to refer to cryptocurrency in general. I think most people seriously using cryptocurrency these days do not use bitcoin.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#26

Post by sadness3 »

sadness3 wrote: post #22

There seems to be a real under-appreciation by the Hacker News crowd of how profound the use case of cryptocurrencies as simple money is. Perhaps because we have a sample bias towards people who are served adequately by traditional financial infrastructure, and people who are disproportionately preoccupied with blockchain as a potential component of software systems. As an example, most kids in starting school today…

Here's a contemporary example: We can, right now, hold USD equivalents in kava.io . It operates on a system which is analogous to fractional reserve banking, except with no middlemen, so your effective interest rate is better by an order of magnitude. It's relatively simple to use. Giving a bank your trust a and a big cut of your returns is going to be a hard sell when that's your normal as a kid.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#27

Post by acdha »

sadness3 wrote: post #22

There seems to be a real under-appreciation by the Hacker News crowd of how profound the use case of cryptocurrencies as simple money is. Perhaps because we have a sample bias towards people who are served adequately by traditional financial infrastructure, and people who are disproportionately preoccupied with blockchain as a potential component of software systems. As an example, most kids in starting school today…

Alternatively, people who are good at analyzing systems and have a sense of ethics refuse to promote a faulty narrative even if they could personally profit from pumping and dumping.

For example, the disruptive experience you describe happens to statistically nobody. The kids you describe are not being their own bankers - almost all of them are using credit card-backed apps, and even if you only look at the few who use cryptocurrencies at all there’s a very small percentage who aren’t reliant on exchanges which are banks for all intents and purposes.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#28

Post by frankbreetz »

bko wrote: post #20
johnnycerberus wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peter McCormack could start by providing evidence for why the paper was wrong, instead was trying to bait Taleb into a Twitter thread that would have done no good to anyone. Good thing for Taleb that he didn't engage.

He did engage by calling him a "fucking idiot"

>>I generally like abrasive style and his calling out of intellectual class.

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#29

Post by xiphias2 »

esens wrote: post #19
xiphias2 wrote: post #17

I’m pleased that Taleb doesn’t want to own bitcoin. He’s a millionaire already, and he already has a bank account for a long time, and enjoyed US dominance for all his life. Meanwhile finally El Salvadorian US immigrants will able to pay the rent and food for their parents stuck in El Salvador without a 20% markup 3 months for now.

I understand the money transfer problem. Cryptocurrency seems like a good idea in that case. I question though why choose Bitcoin? I guess a lot of people support it. But it is far from stable, so no one in the right mind, especially poor people should hold significant Bitcoins because it is speculative rather than stable. I guess stable coins do not have the wide acceptance that bitcoin has? Why not USDC or similar…

USDC is controlled by US, which has been playing geopolitical games with El Salvador (and other countries) already.

People El Salvador didn't get the $1200 checks that US citizens got from printing more USD, even though they both use USD in theory. The president tried to get a deal with the IMF, but they couldn't agree on the terms, so he decided to give a choice to the people between a safe but inflating currency and a volatile / experimental but deflating currency.

Luckily there are enough market makers in both countries that transferring USD and recieving USD through the Bitcoin / Lightning network is cheaper and faster than using the traditional banking infrastructure.

I have a girlfriend in Colombia, and in addition to the 10% remittance fee she always has to go to the city from her village (1 hour bus ride) just to get money. I wish I could just send her money through Lightning network (she has internet + iPhone, so installing an app is not a problem).

Re: Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

#30

Post by mempko »

sadness3 wrote: post #26
sadness3 wrote: post #22

There seems to be a real under-appreciation by the Hacker News crowd of how profound the use case of cryptocurrencies as simple money is. Perhaps because we have a sample bias towards people who are served adequately by traditional financial infrastructure, and people who are disproportionately preoccupied with blockchain as a potential component of software systems. As an example, most kids in starting school today…

Here's a contemporary example: We can, right now, hold USD equivalents in kava.io . It operates on a system which is analogous to fractional reserve banking, except with no middlemen, so your effective interest rate is better by an order of magnitude. It's relatively simple to use. Giving a bank your trust a and a big cut of your returns is going to be a hard sell when that's your normal as a kid.

Fractional reserve banking isn't a real thing though...
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