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The media's lab leak fiasco

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Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#21

Post by fastball »

dbt00 wrote: post #11
partiallypro wrote: post #4

To me what gives me credence to the "lab leak theory" more than anything, was China's behavior during and initially after the outbreak. Where they thwarted any investigations from WHO or anyone else and arrested journalists even attempting to cover it. Now we have additional information of lab workers being sick back in November...I genuinely wonder why people immediately jumped in to defend China's actions through t…

The problem with this thinking is assuming the government of China actually knows the truth and is acting to protect itself from a dangerous reveal. They might not have known then (or now!) and are simply acting based on some probability it could be true, default secrecy, and organizational fear.

This seems less plausible. Presumably the PRC knows exactly what kind of research was happening in Wuhan. It should be fairly clear to anyone who worked in that lab if COVID-19 came from there.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#22

Post by Empact »

As for policy consequences, how about this one:

The United States directly and indirectly funded the Wuhan laboratory, and so bears some responsibility for the virus. It also appears Fauci and others were aware of the deficiencies of the institution. The US should end its support for dangerous research in institutions outside of its purview.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#23

Post by cheeseomlit »

danboarder wrote: post #12

One problem with politically charged issues is that one's bias can significantly color unresolved factual issues. In the article the early 'red flags' pointed out in the January 2020 study by The Lancet left clear open questions regarding the Seafood Market hypothesis, but many in the media glossed over these red flags. Now that additional facts are coming to light including the fact that multiple scientists at the l…

>I think this will result in a rethink of how we tag unresolved topics as "False Information" or before enough facts are gathered.

Wishful thinking perhaps, somehow I doubt most of the media/gov't figures who dismissed these claims did so in good faith to begin with.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#24

Post by noofen »

generalizations wrote: post #13
andybak wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm generally in favour of the actions taken against misinformation but this situation surprises me. Lab leak always seemed plausible and non-crazy even if you think the odds are against it. I don't envy the task of making a call on any of this stuff.

If we accept that taking action against misinformation is good, then this sort of mistake will inevitably happen. If you're in favor of taking action against misinformation, then you should be willing to accept this situation as an acceptable failure. I'm not willing to accept that.

Who would've thought that letting billionaires with international business interests censor scientific inquiry would end badly...

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#25

Post by aazaa »

> ... Evidence in favor of leak theory lowers the status of the media and raises the status of Tom Cotton but doesn’t drastically alter the policy landscape.

That's a very peculiar statement coming from someone who just admitted to missing the 21st century's biggest story to date. And I suspect he's now being too quick to discount the effect on not only the political landscape, but the journalistic landscape as well.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#26

Post by hogFeast »

partiallypro wrote: post #4

To me what gives me credence to the "lab leak theory" more than anything, was China's behavior during and initially after the outbreak. Where they thwarted any investigations from WHO or anyone else and arrested journalists even attempting to cover it. Now we have additional information of lab workers being sick back in November...I genuinely wonder why people immediately jumped in to defend China's actions through t…

It is generally very hard to read too much into what the Chinese govt does because govt behaviour is typically a function of domestic situation, and their domestic situation is very different to ours. The Chinese govt tends to over-react, there is a weird tug of war between local and national politicians, authority in Chinese politics (to me) seems very situational and freewheeling in a way that US politics isn't (an odd point given Chinese criticism of democracy)...it is tricky to read anything into their behaviour.

As an example, it is possible that this was a lab leak but that this fact was suppressed by the local govt, and no-one in the central govt is any the wiser.

Defending China was because Trump was anti-China. I don't think money was anything to do with it, there is always going to be a section of the media (on both sides) that defines their view as the opposite of what "the other side" believes. There is nothing complicated about this, it is just a terrible idea to think this way and it will almost always backfire. Trump, in particular, brought out this characteristic to an unprecedented level...if Trump had said that grass was green, some sections of the media would have had pundits on an hour later expressing how dangerous that sentiment was and that, whilst grass appears green to the laymen, it is actually a very, very, very subtle shade of brown (even Obama didn't trigger this kind of neuralgia on the right).

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#28

Post by HappySweeney »

partiallypro wrote: post #4

To me what gives me credence to the "lab leak theory" more than anything, was China's behavior during and initially after the outbreak. Where they thwarted any investigations from WHO or anyone else and arrested journalists even attempting to cover it. Now we have additional information of lab workers being sick back in November...I genuinely wonder why people immediately jumped in to defend China's actions through t…

I think, like me, many dismissed the lab-leak theory because it sounded like yet-another attempt to push the blame for all the unnecessary death from Trump to China, as well as the cavalcade of doctors stating that the DNA of the virus was clearly not artificially constructed.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#29

Post by cratermoon »

"If the question is “are both hypotheses possible?” the answer is yes. Both are possible. If the question is “are they equally likely?” the answer is absolutely not. One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year. The other requires only for biology to behave as it always has, for a family of viruses that have done this before to do it again. The zoonotic spillover hypothesis is simple and explains everything. It’s scientific malpractice to pretend that one idea is equally as meritorious as the other. The lab-leak hypothesis is a scientific deus ex machina, a narrative shortcut that points a finger at a specific set of bad actors. I would be embarrassed to stand up in front of a room of scientists, lay out both hypotheses, and then pretend that one isn’t clearly, obviously better than the other"

https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19...

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#30

Post by bsder »

tristanj wrote: post #8
partiallypro wrote: post #4

To me what gives me credence to the "lab leak theory" more than anything, was China's behavior during and initially after the outbreak. Where they thwarted any investigations from WHO or anyone else and arrested journalists even attempting to cover it. Now we have additional information of lab workers being sick back in November...I genuinely wonder why people immediately jumped in to defend China's actions through t…

The biggest sign for me is how the Chinese government threatened to charge medical workers with espionage if they speak about what happened during the early stages of the outbreak. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/11/9833532bb925-chin... Consider the following: How can a medical worker speaking about their own experience working at a hospital in any way constitute espionage? If found guilty of espionage, by la…

The problem is that this is Standard Operating Procedure(tm) for China for anything which might upset the hoi-polloi.

Trying to predict what China will execute people for is like reading entrails.

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