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YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

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Re: YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

#21
I would love YouNoodle's startup predictor to work great.

Why not? It'd allow the cream to rise to the surface.

Despite the publicity surrounding startup investment, it can be really hard to secure a first meeting and at least this is another way to attract investors who would otherwise not know about, or look passed someone.

Re: YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

#22
100% gimmick. I wouldn't take investment from anyone who used my company's YouNoodle rating as a guide, and I doubt there are any legitimate investors who would ever do so. So what's the point? Entertainment?

Re: YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

#23
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey guys, Sam from YouNoodle here. The research and development project behind this was the biggest of its kind ever conducted. If you want to learn more about predictive analytics you can read some of the well-informed recent articles about Startup Predictor. Harvard Business Publishing: http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/anthony/2008/08/younoodle_i... The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/mo…

From the Harvard Business Publishing Article: > "Before the 1950s, lending depended on the wisdom and judgment of loan officers. Then, a company called Fair Isaac developed a way to use four simple variables to develop a credit score that reliably predicted the risk of lending to an individual." That is a very misleading analogy. YouNoodle is not the present-day analog of Fair Issac. This goes back to the idea that w…

I haven't used their site, and I don't have a startup to use with it (so if this is exactly what they do then I apologize), but a tool that states "20% of startups in your industry with similar circumstances succeeded. Here are some ways you can increase your percentage." and then shows different ways that a startup could increase its chances based on the statistical data would be interesting to me as a startup founder, and I think it would be helpful to VCs and others as a pre-screening tool for their investments.

Re: YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

#24
post #14
post #11

Even as a self-proclaimed math nerd, I'll be the first to admit that certain things just don't lend themselves well to predictive models. You can probably predict success in aggregate , but the individual cases are really tough to predict in situations where a lot of luck is involved (dating, starting a company, etc). Stop trying to find a mathematical formula for the success of a startup. It's hard to find a good on…

Aneesh, it's hard to provide an objective experience if you use fake data. Nevertheles, based on the data we analyzed, a 500k valuation was the most likely outcome for the profiles of entrepreneurs you entered, working on a startup for approx 2 hrs/week. Remember that this is a 3-year prediction and the hours is relevant to that initial timeframe pre-funding. Many of those teams will have increased their hours/week d…

This looks like the result from selection bias: did you include data from failed startups in your survey? If you tried to account for this, how did you do it?

Re: YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea

#25
post #10

I think that if it were this easy to predict the success of a startup, VCs would have figured this out a long time ago. Applying for funding would involve filling out a simple form of variables to be plugged into a magical equation. I don't think that this site accounts for the high probability of FAIL inherent in any startup. Probably just assumes that the company will continue along the growth path of previous SUCC…

One reason why it's not easy is levels of secrecy of all financial data. Nobody has access to enough unbiased quality data, big VCs have loads of data but it is self-selected and misses almost all early failures, who happen to be the most common kind of startups.

I don't really understand why financing information of all companies isn't public by law. Companies are not people, they don't have a right to privacy.

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