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Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

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Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#21
post #11
post #8

At some point people really have to stop trying to guess what is going on in real-time and adopt a more patient, evidence based approach. India is huge, the healthcare system is said to be collapsing and most of them don't speak English. We aren't going to get coherent reporting in the English press for a few months. On the other hand, if we're worried about variants then I hope there are some hard conversations happ…

I'm constantly reminded that I clearly live in something of a bubble. I think I know a few people who took a plane to ride out the pandemic somewhere they saw as safer and one person who took an international trip to do some business. But that's about it. And a lot of people I know, including myself, practically live in planes normally. Yet, while air travel is down significantly, it's not that far down. Certainly no…

What makes you say that? While it may be rebounding now, there was a long stretch where it was down 95%, if not more, as evident from, say, https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. I don't think other countries fared better.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#22
post #8

At some point people really have to stop trying to guess what is going on in real-time and adopt a more patient, evidence based approach. India is huge, the healthcare system is said to be collapsing and most of them don't speak English. We aren't going to get coherent reporting in the English press for a few months. On the other hand, if we're worried about variants then I hope there are some hard conversations happ…

> To be honest, I'm confused by the amount of air travel that is still going on. If locking down large swathes of most countries is on the cards, why is there any air travel happening?

I think essentially all the data we have indicates that there is a surprisingly low rate covid transmission on airplanes and airports. (You can be worried that the data is being provided by airline companies who are biased, but at this point I think you have to postulate a pretty big conspiracy in order to explain the consistent signal.) Assuming that's true, it means:

1. Your concern should be with any method of travel, not air travel per se.

2. Your concern should be with travel between areas with very different rates of covid (or of different variants), not travel in general. If an infected person in country A swaps places (through flight) with an infected person in country B, nothing has changed regarding covid transmission.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#23
post #21
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm constantly reminded that I clearly live in something of a bubble. I think I know a few people who took a plane to ride out the pandemic somewhere they saw as safer and one person who took an international trip to do some business. But that's about it. And a lot of people I know, including myself, practically live in planes normally. Yet, while air travel is down significantly, it's not that far down. Certainly no…

What makes you say that? While it may be rebounding now, there was a long stretch where it was down 95%, if not more, as evident from, say, https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput . I don't think other countries fared better.

There was a very dramatic slowdown last spring/early summer but those numbers show it's been slowly picking up since then. And, to a first approximation, no one I know is traveling yet. (Though that will probably change this summer as they're all vaccinated.)

ADDED: And there are still basically no in-person tech events. Maybe in the fall though I'm skeptical that will happen. And where I work, you basically need high-level exemptions to meet with anyone physically for work purposes.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#24
post #8

At some point people really have to stop trying to guess what is going on in real-time and adopt a more patient, evidence based approach. India is huge, the healthcare system is said to be collapsing and most of them don't speak English. We aren't going to get coherent reporting in the English press for a few months. On the other hand, if we're worried about variants then I hope there are some hard conversations happ…

> why are there still plane flights 12 months in to the pandemic? Someone fill me in on what I've missed; this seems to be not taking the situation seriously. Are these variants not going to be travelling between countries by plane and ship?

Because the virus is more than an order of magnitude less dangerous than initial estimates, but we are stuck with the legacy decisions made back then in a political environment where admitting you were wrong is seen as suicide. This is why each successive "lockdown" has basically been "do like last time, but more half assed." The reality of the situation is that the virus has a mortality rate of around 0.3% of which half are over 80. This is just not worth shutting down large swathes of the economy indefinitely for, but, politically, you can't say that. So here we are.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#25
As an indian, this Pandemic is an eye opener to me on the devastating impact that flawed government policies have on its citizen.

As the Pandemic began in India, most of the experts clearly said that all restrictions, like lockdowns, are just to slow down the spread of the disease temporarily, so that the healthcare infrastructure doesn't get overburdened. It was understood that India needed to upgrade existing hospitals with more ICU beds and hospitals or build temporary shelters that could house and treat the new cases. It was understood that till everyone is vaccinated, the government needs to prepare for "waves" of infected people to manage the pandemic resourcefully.

During the first wave, we had shortages of medical equipments, like ventilators, masks, medicines and PPE kits that needed to be urgently addressed. And it was, to some extent - the government procured these on a war-footing. India had the harshest lockdown in the world. It devastated our economy but on the plus side really reduced the impact of the first wave. Ventilator shortage did result in many death, but this was addressed.

Then, after the first wave subsided, a combination of government hubris and the psychological fatigue of being in lockdown / house arrest led to both the government and the people fooling themselves into believing the worst was over.

Elections were coming up in 5 states, and obviously selfish politicians want people to come to rallies and vote. So huge political rallies were allowed with restrictions (only on paper). The current right-wing power uses religious symbolism for politics, and thus also permitted the largest Hindu religious gathering - the kumbh mela. Again, social distancing and other restrictions were only on paper. Worse, unlike the Saudis who are only allowing vaccinated muslims to attend the religious Haj, there was no similar condition for the kumbh mela in India.

These two events - the huge political rallies and the Hindu religious gathering at the kumbh mela became super-spreader events as millions attended those.

This was one of the major policy failures of the Modi government.

Now, remember, the experts had pointed out that we need to use lockdowns, and lulls between waves, to upgrade our healthcare infrastructure, right? India didn't.

As the second wave rose, our hospitals again became overwhelmed and just couldn't handle the cases coming in. People were denied hospital admission and asked to wait for emergency beds till admitted patients were deemed fit to go home or died. Worse, a huge shortage of Oxygen in hospitals arose and thousands of people died due to lack of Oxygen. So people were not only being denied treatment but also died during treatment.

The depressing irony - India is the largest producer of Oxygen and vaccine in the world!

So how did India get in to such a situation of facing shortage of both!? The reason is the complete apathy of the government in planning and preparation.

While we are the largest producers of Oxygen in the world, we only have 2000 trucks to transport them. Failure to plan and improve the logistics is one of the reason why many of the hospitals are now facing Oxygen scarcity, even though we have a surplus of it! Big Hospitals weren't also upgraded with oxygen plants.

Our vaccination policy also wasn't well thought out. According to an opposition leader, we exported 60 million vaccines between January and March of this year, while we had only vaccinated around 30 to 40 million of our own people! Our vaccine plans also hit a hurdle when a US vaccine by Novavax, that has been licensed for production in India, is facing hurdles of getting the raw material for the vaccine from US (that has obviously prioritized it for its own needs). The government also had thoughtlessly blocked other foreign vaccines from being available in India, for political gains ("India is self-reliant").

We also exported around 1.1 million doses of Remdesivir to other countries. And our media is showing people desperate to buy Remdesivir from anywhere at any price.

Yes, the pandemic is a natural disaster, but the disaster that is unfolding in India is largely man-made and will be a case study in the future in all colleges on what happens when proper planning isn't done and resources aren't utilised properly.

Summary: We had all the resources. But apathy and poor planning screwed up India's fight against COVID.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#26
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing all the rich people saved us here in the US.

Not for lack of trying, to be perfectly honest. The US mitigation response kept the virus just barely under the disaster threshold, despite major figures in the federal government actively opposing most of those measures at one time or another. But the vaccines worked, so those rich people got it done. mRNA was a gamble, but it paid off with first trials starting just weeks after the virus was sequenced and first dos…

So I see people always pointing out SK and NZ and Australia as great examples of handling the virus but it seems to me that naturally controlling travel through an island* would be much easier to do anyway, also an island is unlikely to end up as a major throughfare? Could this factor into the difference at all?

*I know SK isn't technically an island but for all practical purposes it is.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#27
post #8

At some point people really have to stop trying to guess what is going on in real-time and adopt a more patient, evidence based approach. India is huge, the healthcare system is said to be collapsing and most of them don't speak English. We aren't going to get coherent reporting in the English press for a few months. On the other hand, if we're worried about variants then I hope there are some hard conversations happ…

> Part of what went wrong at the start of COVID around March 2020 was the reactive approach waiting for hard proof that the disease would slip through the borders before cancelling flights. This approach runs a risk that any action will be taken too late.

Humanity has been underestimating and downplaying the disease from the very start. We closed too late, re-opened (multiple times) too early, timidly agonized over every little decision, failed to enforce decisions once made, and then collectively acted shocked, SHOCKED! that it went out of control.

We've had a year to learn what's effective, and have learned a lot. The problem isn't knowledge about the virus, it's lack of political will to actually do anything about it. We know stopping flights and closing borders helps. Why are we so slow to do it?

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#28
post #9

I visited India in Dec 2020, so here's my personal take on this based on what I saw. The first lockdown in India was very severe and it basically made the second lockdown pretty unpopular in the business community, at least initially. The dithering contributed to even bigger second wave. The reasons behind the lull between the first and the second waves were not entirely clear, and some people assumed that the herd i…

While the first lockdown may not have been popular, the top 3 reasons for the second wave were 1) muddled message from the top with massive election rallies and no one wearing masks, 2) the religious kumbh congregation was allowed to proceed as normal while a similar (in comparison, a smaller muslim congregation was demonized last year to the extent of jailing some folks), and 3) total lack of preparation of vaccines…

Why this latching onto election rallies and kumbh. Cases are exploding in Karnataka. No election or Kumbh here. Same for Maharastra.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#29
post #6

The wave isn't primarily due to loosening of restrictions or slack in behaviour. It's due to, for a lack of a better term, environmental factors. Look at the countries in the vicinity of India; they all show similar rise at around the same time. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/#... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coun…

Well, if you look at a comparison graph of the countries directly adjoining India, the differences are pretty stark. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#30
post #17

A combination of triumphalism and Stupidity. The govt there thought that they'd seen off the worst of pandemic and that they'd achieved herd immunity, so they didnt bother preparing for a second wave. Then politicans decided to hold massive election rallies, allow the largest religious festival in the world to go ahead and open up stadiums for sporting events.

How come their second wave comes so late?

What if it's early and we just don't know yet? Everyone acts as though "COVID is almost behind us" which is part of why we keep seeing these new waves. We are in such a rush to get back to normal at all costs, and keep doing it too early.
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