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Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
21–30 of 449 posts
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#22That "article" doesn't add anything beyond the fact that "this guy wrote a tweet and here's what it said".
Why is such low quality filler getting traction on HN? Is it because anti-crypto posts push people's buttons? Every day there is something like this posted, and like clockwork the comments are full of the same arguments both on the pro and anti crypto sides.
Am I an idiot for expecting better from HN?
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#23Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#24Stocks:
* You buy them because they increase earnings and eventually produce dividends at a very high yield to your initial investment.
* The company can issue shares suppressing the price.
* The company can do stock buybacks, increasing the price.
* Brokers can naked short, suppressing the price.
Fiat currency
* You need it to pay taxes and debts.
* Endless Printing.
Gold
* Bought because of limited supply.
* Supply can be increased by settling futures in fiat, or more gold mining or naked shorting.
* Very few have custody.
Bitcoin
* You buy it not for dividends.
* No naked shorting. No stock buybacks because there is no company. Limited new issuance because code=law.
Bitcoin's use case is a reliable means of calculating reciprocation for value provided that can't be interfered with by 3rd parties to the transaction via dilution unless they expend meaningful effort by mining.
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#25I’ve read most of Taleb’s books. And follow his contrarian investment advice. Being anti-fragile makes a lot of sense.
Looking beyond his typical ad-hominem attacks. i.e. ‘Questioned by the user ‘Ultra_Mega_BTC’, who said that “the market is saying the opposite”, Nassim Taleb called him an “imbecile”.’
I wonder, if there’s something more to this. As in, what is he selling? He’s got the spotlight... more books? Or a drop in bitcoin... buying bitcoin on a down cycle.
These supposed problems, are not what bitcoin is supposed to solve. His trading advice is 90% of your money in riskless assets (T-bills). The rest in the riskiest investments one can find. He must’ve not bought into bitcoin ;)
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#26Wait, isn't this the guy with the whole shpeel about having skin in the game? And, didn't he also sell most of his BTC in February? If so, then I guess he would want us to just ignore him.
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Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#27Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#28What's more concerning to me is the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Perhaps there is an argument to Bitcoin being a kind of "digital gold" even if it is all but useless as a currency. But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. I used to take part in "Dogecoin Socks for the Homeless" events. It was wonderful, everyone was trying to make something good out of what we all knew to be…
This is more a mania with dogecoin. Of course set off by robinhood traders and elon musk tweets.
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#29An honest question, understanding crypto and its true viability as a non-fiat currency or an anti-inflationary digital gold is simply above my pay-grade.
I'm wondering if there are any smart plays out there to take advantage of the volatility and/or the inefficiencies in the blockchain that has zero directional delta exposure to the underlying crypto-market.
I'm talking about the exploiting the inefficiency of some crypto-proxies like GBTC or MSTR that had 40-150% premium over their stated market value of their BTC holding at one point. Or similarly, doing some kind of long black swan tail trade (on both 500K and 5K BTC scenario) that minimizes the theta burn as much as possible to 0. Or even sympathy trades involving other physical commodities/precious metals. These are my current vague ideas. Would love to hear more from much smarter folks than me!
Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme
#30As many have argued before me. Bitcoin will probably not be useful as a every day currency, but more useful as a store of value and long term investment. There are other cryptocurrencies that are faster, have lower transaction fees, provide anonymity and are just as easy to use.
> Bitcoin will probably not be useful as a every day currency, but more useful as a store of value and long term investment.
March 2020: "Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge"
* https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/bitcoin-loses-half-of-its-va...
March 2021: "Bitcoin surpasses $60,000 in record high as rally accelerates"
* https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/13/bitcoin-surpasses-60000-in-r...
Do you want the adjective "stable" in there perhaps? Store of value:
> A store of value is essentially an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without deteriorating in value. In other words, to enter this category, the item acquired should, over time, either be worth the same or more.
* https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/storeofvalue.asp
Well, at least it hasn't gone down (yet?).