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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

21–30 of 1001 posts

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#21
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Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

This take seems a little short-shrift to me. This is a highly unusual situation insofar as phase III monitoring is far from complete and there is no 'phase IV' (confirmatory) trial data at all yet. In the normal course of research, this is how we'd catch rare but consistent adverse effects. So, if we had complete trials on a normal timeframe, then obviously there's a different calculus to apply. But given what we kno…

>For people in the low-risk tier

I don't disagree. But I will observe that many people in the low(er) risk tier are going to be traveling, eating out, having parties, etc. sooner rather than later--vaccine or not. In my very Blue state people are very obviously relaxing a whole lot more. So the question isn't whether things open up or not. It's whether people are vaccinated when they do. (Which doesn't mean all vaccines are equally safe.)

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#23
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Seriously I can't believe this is that simple. There is no way public health bureaucrats don't understand this common sense logic. Otherwise they would all become vaccine deniers.

Healthcare is extremely weak on science. The profession existed before the scientific method so there is a tendency to value authority over science.

Even today Physicians still think the body is Art, or a combination of Art and Science.

And the only reason we don't have a science based alternative to the Physician cartel is that they spent literally $400,000,000 on lobbying/bribery in the last 30 years.

Edit- for further reading look up "evidence based medicine debate"

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#24
post #12
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

This is kneejerk statistics 101 reaction. * Hormonal birth control - years of research. Years of evidence and practice. Knowing what to do when this and that happens. Recommendations for women with known conditions not to take this and that hormonal birth control. * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. I'm fine with anyone to make a decision o…

> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet.

That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#25
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Being obese also causes deep vein thrombosis at a rate of 1/1000, but we're perfectly okay with people eating their way to blood clots.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#26
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

I agree that on the surface these numbers are not alarming. That said I trust that the government agencies know what they are doing here. If anything there is tremendous political pressure to NOT scrutinize the vaccines. There is enough anti-vaccine & Covid rhetoric that we should all cool it a little bit and let the experts do their jobs.

> That said I trust that the government agencies know what they are doing here.

I’m the opposite. Covid caused my trust in them to plummet. Perhaps made with the best of intentions, but all the noble lies have eroded my trust.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#27
post #12
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

This is kneejerk statistics 101 reaction. * Hormonal birth control - years of research. Years of evidence and practice. Knowing what to do when this and that happens. Recommendations for women with known conditions not to take this and that hormonal birth control. * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. I'm fine with anyone to make a decision o…

Factor V Leiden gang represent. Afaik AZ clotting is caused through a different mechanism though. Have there been any official recommendations for us thick-blooded folk?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#28
post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

There's lots of other things to compare it to as well. It's a roughly 1 in a million chance of dying - which is called a Micromort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

We 'spend' about one micromort of risk per day of being alive. Or you can spend one walking for 6 hours, or driving 250 miles (or 6 miles on a motorbike)

I just made a website to show all the other stuff we do all the time without worrying with the same (extremely low) level of risk

https://whatoneinamillionmeans.com

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#29

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool"

This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#30

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

That's a good website. I had a chuckle at some of those.
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