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US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

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21–30 of 68 posts

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#21

I think TSMC over estimates how state sponsored fabs would look like. I can predict now that it will be a disaster and many billions will be funnelled to bureaucrat friends through questionable procurement. If there is going to be a miracle and they actually build a fab, it will be lacking as they will not find specialists willing to work for EU wages and level of taxation.

I think Intel will do a good job of it. They have no choice if they get this expansion wrong they are done.

My expectations for Europe though, are sadly much lower.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#22
post #8

Is Liu misunderstanding the Western plans or am I? I was under the impression that the US and Europe intended to get some onshore fab capacity as a second-source and backup in case Taiwan is blockaded or worse. If the plan was to replace TSMC entirely, well, I'd think he was justifiably concerned as (a) a threat to his business and (b) evidence that the US was decoupling from Taiwan. But I don't think that's the case…

Arguably US and Europe absolutely intend to get some onshore fab capacity as a backup, and the choice for TSMC is to either do that (perhaps demanding some subsidies as enticement) or refuse with the expectation that this will inevitably cause attempts to decouple from TSMC even if it's not economically viable, purely for strategic reasons.

IMHO there are some similar trends with EU agricultural policy, where arguably one of the reasons (not much discussed to general public, but obvious if you look at what's being done) for sustaining farming subsidies in sectors where EU would be uncompetitive (due to climatic reasons and labor costs) is the strategic goal to ensure that EU does not become reliant on imported food even if it can be farmed cheaper elsewhere, so that in case of major geopolitical disturbances in coming decades (e.g. caused by climate change) there's local farmers, farmland, skills and infrastructure for that. The costs seem huge, but in proportion to the whole economy they're affordable - the same would apply for on-shore chip fab capacity that's needed for strategic self-sufficiency of key resources.

On the other hand, I fully agree with the TSMC statement that it would be economically unrealistic for EU to expand semiconductor fab capacity to fully satisfy their own needs - it's feasible to expand fab capacity so that you have some onshore supply of modern chips, but it's impractical (and IMHO not within plans of any politician) to ensure that there would be enough fab capacity to supply all the consumer consumption, the expectation is that most of the volume would still be supplied from Taiwan and elsewhere.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#23
post #14
post #9

It may be true that TSMC and Samsung can meet demand during normal times, but it completely misses the point that NA and EU want significant production capacity locally not to reduce costs, but to secure a critical supply chain. Is this a situation where he may be concerned that significant expansion of production capability away from Taiwan and SK will reduce the West’s reliance on TSMC, which may be a security risk…

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard. I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as b…

[deleted]

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unrealistic given how much fab facotiries cost. Your tariff method would work for say mining copper or say iron screws but not for a fab factory as it can't really be scaled halfway

What's the US military budget? Let's say DOD decides it wants onshore chips. $10B is peanuts; $100B is easily doable if they say it's important enough- which it is.

the DoD budget was around 700 billion, no one is going to spend around 1/10th of their entire military budget on semi conductors at cost. They're going to assume some returns on these fab factories.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#25
post #8

Is Liu misunderstanding the Western plans or am I? I was under the impression that the US and Europe intended to get some onshore fab capacity as a second-source and backup in case Taiwan is blockaded or worse. If the plan was to replace TSMC entirely, well, I'd think he was justifiably concerned as (a) a threat to his business and (b) evidence that the US was decoupling from Taiwan. But I don't think that's the case…

The goals aren't mutually exclusive, they just depend on time-frame and how well things go.

Regardless, even if it is the former goal, it is still a potential threat to TSMC profits. Personally, I would not look at it in terms of Liu (mis)understanding, but acting in his own self interest to maximize his profits.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#26
post #3

Doesn't this imply that it would be unrealistic to create large amounts of new supply to satisfy local strategic needs in a global economy? for a large market like the US/Europe couldn't they choose to not participate in the global market for chips? or tip the scales such that local competitors are favored? I don't see any reason why certain products couldn't be on a sliding tariff scale dependent on how much is impo…

Tariffs like that can backfire and prop up non-innovative companies. The US steel industry is a good example. It’s still based on WWII technology, and there’s guaranteed income regardless of whether it’s competitive.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#28
post #14
post #9

It may be true that TSMC and Samsung can meet demand during normal times, but it completely misses the point that NA and EU want significant production capacity locally not to reduce costs, but to secure a critical supply chain. Is this a situation where he may be concerned that significant expansion of production capability away from Taiwan and SK will reduce the West’s reliance on TSMC, which may be a security risk…

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard. I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as b…

You don’t become a leader in this industry by being naive. HN readers are being naive believing that TSMC really meant what they said. Anyone with a brain knows that the US wants to reduce reliance on TSMC

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#29
post #14
post #9

It may be true that TSMC and Samsung can meet demand during normal times, but it completely misses the point that NA and EU want significant production capacity locally not to reduce costs, but to secure a critical supply chain. Is this a situation where he may be concerned that significant expansion of production capability away from Taiwan and SK will reduce the West’s reliance on TSMC, which may be a security risk…

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard. I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as b…

Yeah. It's not just supply chain, it's also national security.

> I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as bright a picture as possible of their long-term prospects.

It could be two things:

1. Some arrogance, "hah, this is harder than you think"

2. They're trying to discourage the competition because they know it will hurt their bottom line.

Even if they only lost 10% of their revenue, that can still hurt a lot. They could go from being a growing business to stagnating or shrinking.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#30
TSMC is probably completely accurate. Their contention is that moving the supply chain would create "non-profitable capacity". However, national supplies do not need to be profitable if they are subsidized or fully funded by a state.

The state is free to, and often does, engage in non-profitable production to ensure essential domestic needs can be satisfied.

This doesn't make sense from a market perspective, but it can often make sense from a needs based perspective.

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