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The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

cacm.acm.org

21–30 of 228 posts

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#21

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

> Nowadays most people I see of that age group are happy with a YouTube video on their smartphones. General purpose of computers is simply not visible.

Have a look at GNU/Linux phones recently developed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Librem_5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PinePhone

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#22
post #11

it looks like we're going back to terminals (renting cloud resources), where owning your own computer will be an increasingly niche hobby

In some ways I don't mind that. If all the normal people are off using their terminals then perhaps workstations will shift back towards supporting advanced users.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#23
post #2

Fab numbers are astronomical. "TSMC recently announced plans for a $19.5B 3nm plant for 2022". How can the next computing paradigm even take off when all the oxygen is depleted in chasing "proven" technologies?

How is the "Cage of Birds" experiment going at TSMC?

Could you give some more search terms? Google isn’t returning anything.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#24

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

I hear people saying this a lot, and I admit I sometimes think it myself. But I'm not sure how true it is, as opposed to just a perception. > Not even to the level that I, a curious teenager, had experienced in those years I think therein lies the rub. Teenagers curious about computers aren't very common. And even back then (early 2000s), my experience in Europe was the same [0]. Most of the people in my school didn'…

> Most of the people in my school didn't really care about computers

When I was in university in the Netherlands studying CS in the early 90s, many (I would say most) didn't care about computers; they were there because 'money later' or 'making games'. By far most never wrote a line of code. It was frightening (to me) how much they had to catch up as the lectures were fast paced. Many changed to psychology or law in the first 2 years.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#25

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

Software is economically worthless without making it artificially scarce. A lot of "software innovation" is not about building better software, but building software you can charge for, which means "walled gardens", patents, DRM, license servers, anti-tampering mechanisms, and the like. In essence all content (music, movies, software, books, etc) follows the same pattern.

Note that profit-driven entities can give away software, but only if it supports another artificially scarce good. Google rents space on its search tool, as Facebook rents space on its social media tool. Ad space is scarce, and made more valuable the more Google and Facebook give away (which is proportional to the attention they capture).

But devs generally don't like artificial scarcity, so the platforms need a path in for them. I think Apple demonstrates this most clearly: the iPad and iPhone are software consumption devices, but the Mac is also a software creation device, and therefore is generally more open, free, and changeable.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#26

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

I hear people saying this a lot, and I admit I sometimes think it myself. But I'm not sure how true it is, as opposed to just a perception. > Not even to the level that I, a curious teenager, had experienced in those years I think therein lies the rub. Teenagers curious about computers aren't very common. And even back then (early 2000s), my experience in Europe was the same [0]. Most of the people in my school didn'…

You are right overall but the smartphone does not inspire tinkering at any level. It feels closer to the TV to me than the computer. Computers used to be boxes which, even non-developers, would open up and upgrade RAM, HDD, etc.

That encouraged tinkering to a high degree. I remember having lengthy talks about what components to use to build a PC with gamers or videgraphers. The more computers become a closed box which can not be opened, casual onlookers will have no reason to even configure them.

The industry is simply not giving people a box to open.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#27
What the authors have completely missed in their analysis is the rapidly-growing trend of specialising standard general-purpose CPUs -- that is adding special-purpose instructions to general purpose CPUs instead of adding special-purpose processors.

This process started a couple of decades ago, adding instructions to assist in the calculation of hashes and encryption, and relatively narrow SIMD parallel processing to assist multimedia.

Now virtually all high volume general purpose processors have such instructions.

If you count simple floating point add, subtract, multiple, divide as special purpose then this process started 50+ years ago.

The advantage of doing this is less added area and power consumption, and the ability to mix special purpose and general purpose operations at a much finer-grained level. Sometimes its worth copying a few MB of data across to a GPU's local RAM, downloading a special program to it, and then copying the results back.

The number of potential special purpose operations that are useful to someone is probably unbounded. But each one might be useful to only a small number of people. It's not feasible to just keep on adding everything someone thinks of to the volume leader mass-market processor.

Three related things are happening to help with this:

1) adding reconfigurable hardware to a general purpose processor or embedding the processor into reconfigurable hardware. Here we have Xilinx "Zynq" and MicroChip "PolarFire SoC" with ARM and RISC-V (respectively) hard CPU cores inside an FPGA. We also have Cypress PSoC which I believe is more like adding a small amount of reconfigurable hardware on the side of a conventional CPU core. If the performance needs of the general-purpose part of the processing are relatively low then you can use a "soft core" CPU built from the FPGA resources themselves. Each FPGA vendor has had their own custom instruction set and CPU core, but now people are moving more and more to instructions sets and cores they can use on any FPGA -- chiefly RISC-V.

2) making custom chips with a standard CPU core augmented with a few custom instructions / execution units. Again, much of this activity is centred around RISC-V though ARM has announced support for this with one or two of their standard CPU cores, initially the Cortex A35. Going into full production of a chip like this has costs in the low millions of dollars, with incremental unit costs as low as $1 to $10. Small numbers of custom chips (100+) can be made for $5 to $500 each depending on the size of the chip and the process node -- bigger, slower nodes are cheaper.

3) adding special purpose instructions that can be more flexibly applied to a larger range of problems. The main contender here is support for "Cray-style" processing of (possibly) long vectors of flexible length. If appropriately designed the same program can run at peak efficiency (for that chip) on CPUs with vastly different vector register lengths. This is in contrast to traditional SIMD where the program has to be rewritten every time a CPU is made with longer vector registers -- and it is very inconvenient to deal with data set sizes that are not a multiple of the vector length.

If suitable primitives are included for predication of vector elements and divergent and convergent calculations then such a vector processor can run the same algorithms as GPUs (e.g. directly compiling CUDA and OpenCL to them). CPUs with sufficiently long vector registers can then compete directly in performance with GPUs on GPU-style code. All while staying tightly integrated with general purpose computations.

ARM SVE and the RISC-V V extension are the examples of this, with I think the RISC-V version being the more flexible and forward-looking.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#28
There's no doubt that we're getting an ever-widening variety of clients, but this "general purpose" notion is a bit slippery. I remember when "general purpose" meant that not only did computers crunch numbers for science and engineering, but they could finally handle more general business computing such as accounting and text-heavy business data processing, which was much larger than number crunching--more general purpose.

Then we got microcomputers, and we added consumers and individual employees to "general purpose", and "word processing, word processing, word processing, and spreadsheets" became the new definition of general purpose computing, dwarfing big iron data processing. Then laser printers and desktop publishing, then Photoshop, CDs and "multimedia", and then The Internet (meaning the web) exploded and general purpose computing suddenly meant email, instant messaging, and so many new home pages that Yahoo could hardly list them all.

In the Internet Boom, nobody defined general purpose computing as mostly word processing, much less business data processing, and forget about scientific calculating.

Fast forward a couple more decades, and general purpose computing is streaming YouTube celebs, texting, binge watching streaming "TV", getting most of your news managed by Big Tech censors so you can't "misunderstand", keeping up with ever-streaming timelines of your 900 closest friends, going to work or school via Zoom, doing most of your shopping....

And where is word processing in this general purpose computing? Probably bigger than ever, but now buried in the "other" category because newer components of general purpose computing dwarf it.

So if some of this is done with a laptop, and some with a "phone", and some with a flat screen in your car, and some with your TV remote, and some with an iPad...I suspect that "computers" could easily be described as either declining or growing for general purposes depending on which of many reasonable definitions you employed.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#29

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

From my perspective I think it might feel that way because back then it was mostly tech curious people who used the internet. Now it’s mainstream and everyone is connected which means most of the content is produced for massconsumation. Back when I got my first computer and got online, in around 1996 I think, the computers were still quite expensive and I would have killes to have access to the information and tinker…

I clearly remember my friends' parents being scared of me since I used to open up PCs and see what components were in them.

I have been using laptops that can not be easily opened/upgraded for the last 4-5 years. Devices are being made mainly for people to consume media and that's it. I think computers of the earlier era and now are not at all comparable. The devices now are not really "computers" as they used to be. They are opaque all-soldered-and-sealed boxes. How will you inspire anyone to tinker with them?

Adding a graphics card to a box was such a cool thing for all of my gamer pals. Video cards, audio cards, or any upgrades would naturally involve casual talks about tech. Who does that these days, unless you own and upgrade a desktop?

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology

#30

This is what I personally feel is just missing these days. I was never part of the leading edge of hobby computing. I was very far off, geographically, growing up a teenager in India. But back then, 1998 - 2006 ish, I feel the Internet was a lot more about experiments. I would read up on some software or hardware group all the time. LUGs were way popular. I used to be on chat rooms from MIT or other unis every other…

Classic PC and even some laptops especially with open operating systems are still fantastic tool for learning and tinkering. There's just more options now for people that simply wants to consume media without thinking too much about everything else. PC enthusiast scene is getting bigger every year.
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