Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

While I'd love to believe that herd immunity is almost here or the vaccine is effectively stopping the spread already, I think the biggest reason for the drop in new cases as well as the drop in active cases can be summed up in a single word. Christmas. Or more broadly the holiday season.

It's absolutely true that new cases are dropping and active cases are dropping as well but if you look at active cases everything peaked about a month after Christmas to the end of Jan before starting to decline this month. Easter is coming up on April 4th. If enough people have the vaccine + enough people have gotten it to cause herd immunity then active cases will continue to drop throughout March and April. But if the holidays are the main cause for this to spread (as in people ignore the "rules" and intermingle with non-household members as the holidays encourage) I predict another wave in April. The wave hopefully will at least be less severe then the Christmas wave was, but I do think the planet isn't out of the water yet.

Excess deaths are measurably up from this pathology, and we can continue working on those problems too. Unfortunately, there’s little overlap between preventions or treatments for drug addiction and infectious disease.

> Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection.

What, the linked study proves the opposite. A massive amount of death in Manaus in 2021, despite 'herd immunity' measured in October 2020. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

> Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth.

Does he hear himself? You can't really liken wild guesses that lead to complacency/death as hiding the truth. It sounds like this guy should really stick to surgery.

At least in the US St. Patrick’s Day would be the obvious next bar crawly, hangout type event, before Easter.

> “In the UK infections are decreasing because we are in a harsh lockdown. The vaccine show little to no effect _yet_”

UK data does suggest that the vaccination campaign is having an effect: hospital admission rates have been dropping more sharply than infection rates.

No doubt the lockdown has reduced infection rates, but there are also seasonal factors. As the weather warms up, people spend more time outdoors, windows are opened for better ventilation, etc. Covid rates will naturally drop in spring for the same reasons that cold and flu do.