A more common scenario I see is that people start with a monolith that ends up inheriting all the conceptual debt that accumulates as a project evolves. All this debt builds up a great desire for change in the maintaining team. A champion will rise with a clean architecture and design in microservice form that addresses all high visibility pain points, attributing forecasted benefits to the perceived strengths of mic…
Some of this is driven by well documented cognitive biases, such as the availabily heuristic which you've identified, but there are so many.
This is a good video on it https://birgitta.info/redefining-confidence/