18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated • Hacker News Board

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#21

Post by SamBam » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:41 AM UTC

TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #7

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

Exactly. Fixating on the vaccination percentage is simply using a number that's two steps removed from what's actually important.

It's like trying to decide if it's too rainy to go out by figuring out how many people are watering their yards right now, when you could just look out and see if it's raining.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#22

Post by perardi » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:42 AM UTC

I had a bit of a frustrating experience getting my elderly parents signed up for a jab today.

They are patients of a local hospital conglomerate. (I realize that’s typical in the States, Kaiser et al., but I’ve been living in Ontario, where you’re not wedded to some particular chain.) The hospital system said they’d notify patients who qualify, which both of my parents do, in spades. Dad was just in the ICU, during the pandemic, thought not for COVID.

Now, how did they choose to notify people? Well, how would you choose to notify elderly patients? A phone call, right? Perhaps a letter in the mail? Maybe a text?

Ha. No. They are apparently notifying people…through their patient portal app. No push notifications. No email notifications. The message just appears in your inbox, and it’s up to you to find it.

Which is, you know, less than optimal for the patients in these 1a and 1b vaccine groups. You know what a lot of elderly people aren’t great at? Constantly checking an app to see if they got a message.

Of course, for all I know, they may have other methods to contact people. But do they communicate those methods anywhere? No.

Ugh. I know. This is all complicated and rolling out at record speed. I get it. The logistics of this whole mess are horrifying. But just the teeniest bit of information and UX design here would got a long ways.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#23

Post by cvcvc » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:43 AM UTC

tasty_freeze wrote: post #19

Bloomberg also has a vaccine tracker that has more information https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-glo...

Bloomberg gives number of shots given, not number of people vaccinated.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#24

Post by shouldiquitamzn » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:43 AM UTC

This whole thing is hopeless. Mutations will invalidate the vaccine, lockdowns will never fully stop the spread. Year after year, each reinfection you get damages your internals a little more, drastically lowering your life expectancy.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#25

Post by peytn » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:45 AM UTC

jeremiahhs wrote: post #6

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Probably once the testing positivity rate is well below 1%, things may return to normal. I'll be curious what criteria are used.

Doesn’t seem like that condition leads to termination. As things return to normal, fewer surveillance tests will be conducted by definition, so the test positivity rate will rise.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#26

Post by superkuh » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:45 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

It's not clear yet if arm injected vaccines will provide mucosal immunity. They'll prevent serious disease but epithelial cells in the nose, mouth, and so on can still be infected and shed virus. It's the same for flu vaccines. There are nasal vaccines which do provide mucosal immunity like flumist but during heavy flu seasons only the old and young have access.

So, even if you're the required 2 months post vaccinated you probably shouldn't stop wearing a mask or social distancing until 100% of the population around you has either also been vaccinated or been infected and recovered.

When will the entire population be vaccinated or already infected? At current rates it may be a year or two.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#27

Post by repsilat » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:46 AM UTC

randmeerkat wrote: post #4

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

According to this yahoo article about 65 - 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated until we can get back to normal. That said there still may be mutations or other complicating factors that could throw a wrench in things. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/around-65-75-of-the-populatio...

That number has been thrown around for here immunity. But I don't think it answers the GP's question because

* Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?"

* Age-related mortality and age-related vaccination rates are important. If we vaccinate all of the people who are at serious risk, the danger is mostly gone. There have obviously been deaths in populations not at serious risk, but not in proportion to the economic costs of locking down the economy.

And as an aside, vaccine immunity is estimated to be about as good as post-infection immunity. And most estimates of the actual infection rate put them several times (some estimate 8-10x, but that's looking unlikely IMO) the measured case rate.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#28

Post by dougmwne » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:46 AM UTC

I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population).

If we are able to reduce the severe case rate by 10x or 100x, do we even need to reach herd immunity or would to be best just to remove all social distancing controls and let it burn itself out, knowing that the negative impact from those infections would be small enough to not put a strain on healthcare resources?

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#29

Post by cthaeh » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:49 AM UTC

rmk wrote: post #17

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

When children are vaccinated. It's not clear if the vaccine confers sterilizing immunity, i.e., you are protected against the bug and also can't spread the disease, so most people who have children or are around children will ideally not take undue risks. I'm not sure if under-16 cohorts' trials are underway already. If they are, and if children are going to be vaccinated before their next school term starts, then so…

Children are almost immune from the virus. Everyone below 40 is also extremely extremely unlikely to die from the virus, just to a lesser extent.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#30

Post by jjoonathan » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:49 AM UTC

perardi wrote: post #22

I had a bit of a frustrating experience getting my elderly parents signed up for a jab today. They are patients of a local hospital conglomerate. (I realize that’s typical in the States, Kaiser et al., but I’ve been living in Ontario, where you’re not wedded to some particular chain.) The hospital system said they’d notify patients who qualify, which both of my parents do, in spades. Dad was just in the ICU, during t…

Kaiser is one of the good ones, too.

How can it be worse? Well, you can not have insurance, but you already knew that one. You can have an insurance company that's poorly integrated with providers, resulting in "edge cases" that somehow always involve you paying more. A lot more. Here's the one affecting me, though: insurance companies use pricing to ensure that my employer picks a new plan every year, which always has an extremely decrepit sign-up process every year, which no doubt shakes some fraction of the generally young and healthy workforce from going through it at all. It usually takes hours, even for someone of my technical aptitude, because you have to go on a scavenger hunt for the correct links, ID numbers, and codes.

It's not bad UX, it's brilliant UX, but the masters it servers are... not us.