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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#21

Post by lastofthemojito »

maxerickson wrote: post #18
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

$10,000 buys a pretty good used ICE vehicle. How many decent electric vehicles are selling used for that price? The lower ongoing costs of electric can justify a higher upfront price, but then you are paying more up front.

Of the ~20k used electric cars listed on cars.com, ~3k are $10k or less. Mostly Nissan Leafs and Chevy Sparks, so it depends on your definition of decent :).

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#22

Post by m-ee »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

I think those average numbers get skewed by expensive SUVs and luxury cars. You don’t need to spend $30k to get something decent and new, I think my Mazda 3 was like $17k in 2016. I think we’ll need a combo of good used prices like you mention as well as new prices comparable to a Corolla to see mass adoption.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#23

Post by djrogers »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #9
DennisP wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Governments certainly have the power to screw things up, but also to accelerate things. If electrics take over so much of the market that gasoline gets super cheap, there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway. Besides that, it's not all about fuel costs. Electric vehicles are fun, and generally low-maintenance.

>there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway. So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some resistance. Cars from the early '00s are still on the road. It's gonna take another ~20yr for the fleet to turn over organically.

> So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some resistance.

Sadly, that (admittedly sound and good) argument will run headlong into the resounding cry of 'for the environment'. Since both sides of that fight vote for the same party (in the US) the option that brings more revenue into the government coffers is likely to win. See every fuel tax increase in the last 40 years in blue states as examples.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#24

Post by pkulak »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

I like your Miata example, mostly because I think it may illustrate that the problem won't exist for EVs. Range is king in EVs, new or used. I can't think of any EV feature quite like a stick shift in an ICE car.

I actually am seeing lots of used EVs here in Portland. Mostly Nissan Leafs. They are dirt cheap to buy and nearly free to operate (especially given their terrible range). If you have a commute under 20 miles, you can't do better than an EV that's 5+ years old.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#25

Post by duxup »

knoebber wrote: post #8
dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

California is banning sales of new internal combustion engines in 2035 as well. That should help incentivize the tech/infrastructure a bit.

I wonder what the yin and yang / success rate of such mandates are / how the response really goes.

I remember the light bulb rules at a national level had to be rolled back when there just wasn't enough capacity to replace them all with non incandescent options.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#26

Post by bwanab »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

That’s kind of funny to me. I’m old and I’ve got a manual transmission Saab. Young people who get in the car with me (back before COVID) have literally asked what that thing (the shifter) is.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#27

Post by gregkerzhner »

strict9 wrote: post #7

I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking. Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.

This. Curios to hear about people's experiences owning an EV without access to a charger at home.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#28

Post by Loughla »

djrogers wrote: post #19
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

> The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. One might think this to be the case, but the breakdown of new car buyers shows about the same % of buyers make 100k (roughly 1/3rd in each cohort, but varies based on vehicle type). Sadly, many of those buyers will take out out a 72-84mo loan that they probably can't afford in order to pay for that new car.

We priced out pickup trucks recently for shits and giggles (because we live in rural america and really have a decently often use for one).

They're so expensive. And the dealer pushes the 84+ month loan to bring the payment down. Like, I get that it's a $450/month payment, and that's supposed to sound reasonable (it isn't reasonable, at 3/4 the cost of our mortgage). But it's for 8 years! There's no way this truck is going to last that long. Who does this? Why?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#29

Post by ghaff »

bpodgursky wrote: post #11
dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

Given that the entire length of Britain is 600 miles, going ICE-free seems almost... easy, compared to the US. You really don't have the concerns about long-haul trips impacting range. Obviously there are point-charging concerns etc, but that's something you can throw small money at to fix. You don't really need to convince consumers they won't be stranded in the mountains and freeze to death.

There are areas of the US where electric will probably be a tough sell as someone's only vehicle for certain types of trips and driving. Is it a large percentage? Probably not. (And before someone says just rent a car for those times. For a lot of driving away from pavement, you can't rent vehicles even if you wanted to.)

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#30

Post by mywittyname »

bpodgursky wrote: post #11
dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

Given that the entire length of Britain is 600 miles, going ICE-free seems almost... easy, compared to the US. You really don't have the concerns about long-haul trips impacting range. Obviously there are point-charging concerns etc, but that's something you can throw small money at to fix. You don't really need to convince consumers they won't be stranded in the mountains and freeze to death.

Long haul trips were never the biggest concern for EV adoption, that's something that can largely be worked around through planning.

The biggest concern has always been charging infrastructure. EVs are great for people with garages, but not so much for the people in cities with no dedicated parking spot.

Banning ICEs is probably the best mechanism to get society to solve this problem. Otherwise, most city-dwellers will just sit back and continue to drive ICE cars waiting for someone else to solve the charging issue.

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