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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#21

Post by laqq3 »

jiggawatts wrote: post #9

If a mutant strain of COVID-19 becomes twice as deadly, this "merely" doubles the pressure on hospitals. A constant factor like this can be dealt with. However, an increased rate of spread (R factor) is a change in the parameter of the exponential curve, and cannot be dealt with by any sub-exponential response. The only thing that could possibly work is to change the factor. Rapid vaccination or lockdown. It's imposs…

Good analysis but small nitpick: the use of "Θ" in Θ(a×exp(R×𝑡)) is slightly inaccurate (or is it the use of "a"?) because the set of functions Θ(a×exp(R×𝑡)) is the same for all positive a.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#22

Post by mfDjB »

simonbarker87 wrote: post #10
mfDjB wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lockdown was tightened for Christmas. [1] 1: https://nypost.com/2020/12/20/londons-covid-19-christmas-loc... EDIT: It's weird that people don't believe me. Here is a BBC article talking about the Tier 4 lockdown that occurred right before Christmas: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55380644 From the article: "Millions of people across England have been banned from meeting friends and family indoors ov…

Nope, December was pretty free and easy (comparatively speaking) and Christmas Day was not a lockdown. Boxing Day was (sort of) but I know plenty of people breached that and travelled home after Boxing Day. Source: am British also (and stayed home and saw no one at all over Christmas and new year, just sayin)

I am British and living in London. From the article:

"London saw wild scenes of a weekend mass exodus before the start of a Christmas lockdown and travel ban sparked by a new, more infectious mutation of COVID-19."

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#24

Post by callamdelaney »

>The NHS England presentation, seen by HSJ (see slides below story), showed that even if the number of covid patients grew at the lowest rate considered likely

Covid rates have consistently grown at the lowest rate considered likely.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#26

Post by core-questions »

mike00632 wrote: post #13

3478 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

~1700 people per day die of heart disease in America and have done so for decades. I think we should shut down the economy until we can get everyone's heart healthy.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#27

Post by d4mi3n »

core-questions wrote: post #26
mike00632 wrote: post #13

3478 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

~1700 people per day die of heart disease in America and have done so for decades. I think we should shut down the economy until we can get everyone's heart healthy.

That'd make more sense if heart disease had a significant chance of killing people breathing the same air as you.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#28

Post by stupidcar »

This article is confusing. It starts off by saying this is an analysis of "best" and "worst" case scenarios for continued growth in cases, but later it says:

> HSJ understands that the briefing was part of an attempt to get senior clinical leaders to focus on what they would have to do, if current growth trends were not surpressed by the tighter lockdown.

So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tighter lockdown, as seems likely? Will things then be better than the "best" case scenario?

It sounds like there's a bit of misreporting going on here. The leaked document forecasts demand based on pre-lockdown trends, to highlight the significant risks. But the article is reporting it as if running of beds is totally guaranteed in all circumstances, which doesn't appear to be the case, if the lockdown works.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#29

Post by mfDjB »

robtaylor wrote: post #4
mfDjB wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lockdown was tightened for Christmas. [1] 1: https://nypost.com/2020/12/20/londons-covid-19-christmas-loc... EDIT: It's weird that people don't believe me. Here is a BBC article talking about the Tier 4 lockdown that occurred right before Christmas: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55380644 From the article: "Millions of people across England have been banned from meeting friends and family indoors ov…

Nope. It was wide open for Christmas Day. Source: Being in UK.

No it wasn't. I live in London.

Also from the article:

"London saw wild scenes of a weekend mass exodus before the start of a Christmas lockdown and travel ban sparked by a new, more infectious mutation of COVID-19."

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