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Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

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Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#21

Post by whatshisface »

ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

>It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

Dichotomous choices almost never exist. It is very easy to be wrong on most issues, simply by speaking out random opinions every time you see a situation with more than two possible truths. Never miss an opportunity to call the outcome of a d20 roll and you'll be well on your way to being an anti-oracle.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#22

Post by ncmncm »

whatshisface wrote: post #21
ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

> It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. Dichotomous choices almost never exist. It is very easy to be wrong on most issues, simply by speaking out random opinions every time you see a situation with more than two possible truths. Never miss an opportunity to call the outcome of a d20 roll and you'll be well on y…

Those are not the choices where Oracles of Wrong are useful.

When the number of choices is narrowed down to two, somebody who is only randomly wrong is just as likely to be right. But our Oracle can be counted upon to choose wrong with overwhelmingly greater than 50% accuracy.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#24

Post by davesque »

ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

Sounds like George Costanza.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#25

Post by csunbird »

dragontamer wrote: post #14

Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950. Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years... I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche. ------ At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

The Lumia 950 was really nice, you are not alone.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#26

Post by canofbars »

pram wrote: post #3

I’m not convinced. They describe it as the result of having a “preference for risk” but maybe they’re just seeking novel experiences? If they’re trying new things simply because they’re new, then their behavior offers no predictive power. There’s very little risk associated with buying a different flavor of soda :V

Established brands thrive on this as well. Frequently releasing unusual but ultimately not very good flavour variations because many people will buy it just to find out what vegemite flavoured chocolate tastes like.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#27

Post by klyrs »

Animats wrote: post #11

I wonder if this correlates with consuming less advertising. People who don't watch many ads may not buy mainstream products.

Yeah, I rarely learn of products before they're quite old; I only see a couple of banner ads a week and that's always jarring

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#28

Post by smadge »

georgewsinger wrote: post #4

They're called early adopters. Thank God they exist to try out/put up with our early form products :]

I think this is describing early adopters who consistently chose products that eventually fail. Perhaps there is another subgroup of early adopters who consistently choose new products that eventually persist, “harbingers of success.”

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#29

Post by mszcz »

dragontamer wrote: post #14

Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950. Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years... I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche. ------ At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

I have no idea why there still isn't another eink smartwatch. It was such a wonderful piece of tech. Worked wonderfully, had days of battery life and, most importantly, non trivial and loyal customer base.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#30

Post by Null-Set »

ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

There is, of course, an xkcd on this topic. https://xkcd.com/2270/
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