Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high • Hacker News Board

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#21

Post by rolph » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #19

Volundr wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not horrible or shocking, but concerning. Mutation is expected but the more strains there are the more likely one turns out to be unaffected by the vaccine and we find ourselves back at square one.

I would hope that they could add coverage for new variants to the mRNA vaccines without having to go completely back to square one. Do they have to do full 3 phase testing on the flu vaccine every year?

first issue here is the differences in terminology regarding strains, vs variants.

strains are signifigantly different from each other, variants are a nuance on the same theme.

the virus strain that infects small mammals is separate from the trans specific strain that spilled over to humans.

the virus with small changes to the spike sequence altering spike structure or function is a variant.

under emergency conditions a 3phase trial is not mandatory , and would likely be a quick deliberation under normal conditions for small adjustments to the sequence, similar to seasonal influenza vaccines.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#22

Post by sigil » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

jsnell wrote: post #20

sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

What could we be doing differently beyond what we already should be doing? Are you referring to things like border closing?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#23

Post by skybrian » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:18 PM UTC

sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

It would be more accurate to say that we don't know yet whether it should be considered a new strain or not.

Any adjective like "strain" implies a binary distinction, but that doesn't mean you should round off "don't know" to false.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#24

Post by Lin99 » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

I can see very easily how Japan could be the first epicenter of this new Covid-19 mutation.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#25

Post by m-ee » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:26 PM UTC

jsnell wrote: post #20

sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

What evidence are you saying is “quite solid”. So far everything has just a been inferred from the epidemiology and the error bars are extremely wide. I wouldn’t call that solid at all.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#26

Post by SomeoneFromCA » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

jsnell wrote: post #20

sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

There is some other point I heard recently on Twitter - the appearance of new variants with increasingly faster speed of spread (BTW, if anyone remembers, there was a mutation in Australia, which had shorter incubation - 8 HOURS), may quite soon cause rise of true strains, and, it might potentially lead to the ADE, when suboptimal vaccines will make disease much worth instead of easing it.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#27

Post by ALittleLight » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

sigil wrote: post #22

jsnell wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

What could we be doing differently beyond what we already should be doing? Are you referring to things like border closing?

I feel we (US) should absolutely be closing the border to the UK, Japan, Italy and whoever else has the new strain/variant. Why would we wait on this when the evidence suggests the new version is more infectious?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#28

Post by jsnell » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

sigil wrote: post #22

jsnell wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

What could we be doing differently beyond what we already should be doing? Are you referring to things like border closing?

Concentrating contact tracing resources on cases of the new variant, where they'll do more good than applied randomly on all Covid cases. Targeted local shutdowns in locales where the new variant appears to have gotten a foothold. Enhanced screening of people with recent ties to the high risk areas. All the stuff we did, or should have done, for Covid itself when that pandemic was in its early stages, but with focus on the new variant.

And sure, border closures too. They're late in that the new variant is probably present at some level in most of Europe. But the fewer cases you have to start with, the longer it'll stay contained at low levels. You might even be able to contain it entirely for a while. All the cases of B.1.1.7 in Denmark (0.4% of their sequencing) appear to be part of the same cluster. They should be able to manage that much better than if the variant was being constantly reintroduced by travelers.

For the UK specifically, they're doing a bunch of things differently for their Tier 4 level vs. Tier 3, which was introduced specifically in response to B.1.1.7. Are you suggesting that all of those measures should have been done everywhere anyway?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#29

Post by SomeoneFromCA » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

ALittleLight wrote: post #27

sigil wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What could we be doing differently beyond what we already should be doing? Are you referring to things like border closing?

I feel we (US) should absolutely be closing the border to the UK, Japan, Italy and whoever else has the new strain/variant. Why would we wait on this when the evidence suggests the new version is more infectious?

There must be some very special political reason for keeping borders with UK open, so even Fauci seem to approve it. I wonder what is it?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#30

Post by SomeoneFromCA » Fri, Dec 25, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

m-ee wrote: post #25

jsnell wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

What evidence are you saying is “quite solid”. So far everything has just a been inferred from the epidemiology and the error bars are extremely wide. I wouldn’t call that solid at all.

What you consider a solid evidence?