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The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

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Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#21

Post by samatman »

Loughla wrote: post #16
marcell wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think looking at the last 20 years is pretty reasonable. All the years are within my lifetime. I agree we should not zoom out for the last 200 years. If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.

What problems have had advancements in treatment in the last 20 years? HIV/AIDS, cancer, diabetes. Those are just three things off the top of my head that I know have improved, even without data to support me. I'm not sure, with the speed of technological improvements in the last decade, that 20 years is appropriate.

Over the last two decades, life expectancy has either peaked in the developed world, or has even declined for some demographics.

Seems appropriate to me.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#22

Post by pmiller2 »

marcell wrote: post #9
pnutjam wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize the year ain't over yet.

The data is linearly adjusted to fill out the 2020 data. You are right though, that we don't have the full year's data.

Does it take into account that more people tend to die in December, January, and February than other months? In other words, did they adjust December properly?

https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/07/10/more-people-die-winter-...

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#23

Post by bryanlarsen »

marcell wrote: post #2

This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.

Looks like 10 normal months and a large spike in April and May to me.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#24

Post by jansan »

carlob wrote: post #17
dragonwriter wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As with other types of flu. COVID-19 is not a type of the flu, in the same way that a human is not a type of bat.

Probably a better analogy would be a bat is not a type of bird.

Fun fact:

The Bible counts bats as birds.

Leviticus 11: 19

“And these you shall detest among the birds;a they shall not be eaten; they are detestable: the eagle, the bearded vulture, the black vulture, the kite, the falcon of any kind, every raven of any kind, the ostrich, the nighthawk, the sea gull, the hawk of any kind, the little owl, the cormorant, the short-eared owl, the barn owl, the tawny owl, the carrion vulture, the stork, the heron of any kind, the hoopoe, and the bat."

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#25

Post by gabereiser »

sokoloff wrote: post #12
CogentHedgehog wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the long-haulers and COVID-19 heart damage are particularly concerning. Also there is some evidence suggesting that a large fraction hospitalized for COVID-19 end up with mental health issues even if they did not have them before. Some of that might be down to the traumatic experience but there's some reason to think COVID-19 infections cause neurological impacts.

IMO, there's reason to think that COVID-19 has negative mental health effects even on people who never get the disease.

For sure, this needs study too. There have been studies of those who were given treatment though and it shows a correlation. We don’t know, for sure, that COVID-19 is the direct cause of mental issues or a side effect but it’s been recorded in a sample.

I think a study of a general population sample for mental health issues with or without a prior COVID-19 diagnosis would show how varying the COVID-19 patients experiences are vs how everyone else is fairing.

I’m not a scientist or a therapist so I don’t know the exact approach to use to do the comparison but I suspect it could be done.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#26

Post by Spare_account »

marcell wrote: post #20
Loughla wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What problems have had advancements in treatment in the last 20 years? HIV/AIDS, cancer, diabetes. Those are just three things off the top of my head that I know have improved, even without data to support me. I'm not sure, with the speed of technological improvements in the last decade, that 20 years is appropriate.

Curious if you looked at the underlying data. Aside from 2018, this year does not even look like much of an outlier: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269505984344... . 2012 seems to have been deadlier, for Sweden, than 2020, which was 8 years ago.

What about other countries?

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#27

Post by pmiller2 »

anoncake wrote: post #19
mmastrac wrote: post #4

And don't forget the long-term health impacts for those that survive. This will have implications for years to come.

There is no evidence that these kinds of impacts are even remotely common.

Are you sure? From https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... :

> In this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.

Note that this study includes a group of COVID survivors who have recently recovered, and 2 control groups: healthy, age-matched participants, and a group of risk-factor matched control patients. It is published in JAMA Cardiology.

Obviously, this study doesn't say anything about truly long-term consequences of COVID, but that, IMO, is more because we haven't had time to reach "long-term" status yet. I would give it at least another 6 months to a year before making up my mind about the incidence of long-term consequences.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#28

Post by samatman »

The interesting question, to me, is whether we will see a visible spike in all-cause mortality for, let's say, 2020-2025.

COVID-19 is particularly hard on the elderly, which is by no means an inevitable fact about epidemics. Every person who dies of this disease would have lived longer, which makes their death a tragedy: but how much longer?

Cards on the table: my suspicion is that we won't. I could be wrong, particularly if recovering from the disease shortens lifespans for an appreciable number of patients. We'll know when we know.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#29

Post by gabereiser »

dragonwriter wrote: post #10
thdrdt wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As with other types of viruses. Nerve damage is very common.

> As with other types of flu. COVID-19 is not a type of the flu, in the same way that a human is not a type of bat.

Unless you’re Bruce Wayne. Sorry, couldn’t resist...

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#30

Post by CogentHedgehog »

sokoloff wrote: post #12
CogentHedgehog wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the long-haulers and COVID-19 heart damage are particularly concerning. Also there is some evidence suggesting that a large fraction hospitalized for COVID-19 end up with mental health issues even if they did not have them before. Some of that might be down to the traumatic experience but there's some reason to think COVID-19 infections cause neurological impacts.

IMO, there's reason to think that COVID-19 has negative mental health effects even on people who never get the disease.

That's definitely true too -- the rates of mental illness are something like doubled in the base population. But the frequency for people who have been sick is much higher than the general population, even accounting for the spike in overall mental illness.
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