The Big Lessons from History • Hacker News Board

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#21

Post by _4gzn » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 1:25 PM UTC

_4gzn wrote: post #5

Let me copy a previous comment of mine [0]. One quasi-actionable lesson of history the governments can try to remember is: do not sacrifice your strategic goals for a short-term gain, or "avoid hotfixes in production". Example 1: Septimius Severus raised the legionary's yearly pay from 300 to 400 denarii while decreasing the amount of silver in a denarius by a half. The upset Roman economy would never fully recover.…

Oh, and another example from Ukraine, this time in 2020: threatened by the International Monetary Fund with being denied loans in the midst of the pandemic, the Ukrainian parliament allowed the sale of the largest asset they are left with, the agricultural land, to foreign entities [0]. Who thinks this will end well for Ukraine, raise your hand.

[0] https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/international-monetary-fund...

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#22

Post by op03 » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

ceilingcorner wrote: post #10

op03 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That said most people, i.e. the non revolutionaries (which is the HN crowd), survive and will survive just fine not knowing anything about revolution or revolutionaries. My favourite example of such a survivor is Joseph Marie Jacquard inventor of the Jacquard Loom (that which inspired Charles Babbage). Jacquards town would be taken over by revolutionaries on one day, counter revolutionaries on another, local royalty…

That strategy works until the power-of-the-day decides that your race/class/religion is the Enemy. Good luck being Jewish in 1940s Germany, or a Kulak in 1930s Soviet Union, or a Christian during the Cultural Revolution, etc.

In history you can find any story you want.

Some guy says well Lavoisier lost his head. Well Legrange didn't.

And here is a quote from him - "I believe that, in general, one of the first principles of every wise man is to conform strictly to the laws of the country in which he is living, even when they are unreasonable"

He lived a pretty good life.

Not everyone is a revolutionary (that should be obvious looking at what modern psychology tells us about human nature)

Nor does everyone care about what revolutionaries care about (which should be obvious if you look at what marketing depts reveal about ppl).

And if you are not interested in psychology or marketing, history will show you thousands of such people, famous people and ordinary people, survived comfortably and happily through every revolution and war and how to do it.

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#23

Post by johnr2 » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 2:10 PM UTC

soniman wrote: post #20

The Morgen Housel posts always get on the front page of HN and they are always full of pablum. You can take anything he says and turn it around, say the exact opposite, and it would also make you nod your head. For instance "Important things rarely have one cause." Or you could say "Important things usually have one cause." The pandemic has one cause, the virus. Or "People believe what they want to believe" is litera…

> tripe-filled posts

I enjoyed the article and found it thought provoking. Maybe I have tripe for brains.

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#24

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 2:30 PM UTC

johnr2 wrote: post #23

soniman wrote: post #20

The Morgen Housel posts always get on the front page of HN and they are always full of pablum. You can take anything he says and turn it around, say the exact opposite, and it would also make you nod your head. For instance "Important things rarely have one cause." Or you could say "Important things usually have one cause." The pandemic has one cause, the virus. Or "People believe what they want to believe" is litera…

> tripe-filled posts I enjoyed the article and found it thought provoking. Maybe I have tripe for brains.

[deleted]

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#25

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 3:07 PM UTC

johnr2 wrote: post #23

soniman wrote: post #20

The Morgen Housel posts always get on the front page of HN and they are always full of pablum. You can take anything he says and turn it around, say the exact opposite, and it would also make you nod your head. For instance "Important things rarely have one cause." Or you could say "Important things usually have one cause." The pandemic has one cause, the virus. Or "People believe what they want to believe" is litera…

> tripe-filled posts I enjoyed the article and found it thought provoking. Maybe I have tripe for brains.

[deleted]

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#26

Post by sbdmmg » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

soniman wrote: post #20

The Morgen Housel posts always get on the front page of HN and they are always full of pablum. You can take anything he says and turn it around, say the exact opposite, and it would also make you nod your head. For instance "Important things rarely have one cause." Or you could say "Important things usually have one cause." The pandemic has one cause, the virus. Or "People believe what they want to believe" is litera…

Very much agree. I prefer"The Lessons of History" by Durant [1], more focused and less "fluffy" IMHO.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lessons_of_History

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#27

Post by michaelbrave » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 3:41 PM UTC

whytaka wrote: post #15

The 2nd lesson resonates with me a lot. Particularly the bit about being a pessimistic saver and an optimistic investor. I'm 34. It's dawning on me that I have been a pessimist all of my life. I have saved and saved, cut expenses here, minimized consumption there. I have known a bit of poverty in my earlier days and while my minimalism may reflect an on-going poverty, I have done ok for myself by two metrics: I own a…

I think part of the optimism (in investing) is finding the opportunity in the bad. For example the best time to buy is after a crash kind of thinking.

Also I would argue that most of us are more optimistic than we think, why else would we buy workout equipment or get gym memberships over and over when our past history would prove pretty solidly that what we think will happen likely won't. It's because we are secretly optimistic that it can/will happen this time. Granted this isn't true for everyone but the point that we are more optimistic than we think is in broad strokes true.

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#28

Post by TT3351 » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 4:32 PM UTC

Surprised to see Oliver Stone's documentary (Untold History) mentioned. It's very approachable, generally accurate stuff. Far better fare than most History Channel stuff. There is a companion text with comprehensive footnotes, with an audiobook narrated by Stone.

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#29

Post by TT3351 » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 4:36 PM UTC

soniman wrote: post #20

The Morgen Housel posts always get on the front page of HN and they are always full of pablum. You can take anything he says and turn it around, say the exact opposite, and it would also make you nod your head. For instance "Important things rarely have one cause." Or you could say "Important things usually have one cause." The pandemic has one cause, the virus. Or "People believe what they want to believe" is litera…

I would reach a different conclusion than you based on the flaws you identified, namely that argumentation and language is a flexible instrument in the first place. If I was reading a (peer reviewed) history text and the author suggested something like the Great Depression had one cause, frankly I would put the book down.

Re: The Big Lessons from History

#30

Post by throwaway98797 » Sat, Nov 14, 2020, 4:44 PM UTC

whytaka wrote: post #15

The 2nd lesson resonates with me a lot. Particularly the bit about being a pessimistic saver and an optimistic investor. I'm 34. It's dawning on me that I have been a pessimist all of my life. I have saved and saved, cut expenses here, minimized consumption there. I have known a bit of poverty in my earlier days and while my minimalism may reflect an on-going poverty, I have done ok for myself by two metrics: I own a…

I hear you.

Once you change your beliefs about what is required to achieve something. It’s not cold hard “facts”, but belief.

You must believe to see. Not see to believe. I stole this from a devote religious man and it has helped me greatly to take more risks and thus become more optimistic.

(I’m not religious)