Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science • Hacker News Board

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#21

Post by bleah1000 » Fri, Nov 06, 2020, 5:24 AM UTC

I think it's way too early to declare victory. In fact, Australia was doing really well, then one of the provinces messed everything up, possibly due to some government corruption. We need to wait and see if this time, things work out.

Remember when everyone thought the US was doing so poorly and Europe was doing great, then suddenly there is a huge spike in cases in many European countries.

I don't think we will be able to do a proper post-mortem on the best strategy to handle covid until we reach herd immunity or a vaccine has been distributed.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#22

Post by brnt » Fri, Nov 06, 2020, 8:28 AM UTC

hedora wrote: post #15

brnt wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked.

How so? Every pandemic in history was brought under control using herd immunity, including prior outbreaks of coronavirus. The only exception I know of is the eradication of smallpox, but that is a very different disease. However, the impact it had on the Native American population when the (then benefiting from herd immunity) Europeans brought it to the Americas is a stark example of how well herd immunity works. Ev…

'Bringing under control' needs to be qualified. ATM it isn't brought under our control, but nature's. And that is a very low. It simply means letting things run its course, which means letting people die and get complications that may last for long.

The common meaning of bringing a pandemic under control refers to having active methods to deal with it and limit effects, people affected and certainly people dieing.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#23

Post by tinus_hn » Fri, Nov 06, 2020, 10:11 AM UTC

reitzensteinm wrote: post #19

tinus_hn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice 30 degrees C weather you’re having in the winter. Must be global warming.

The lockdown is over now. It started in the winter and that is when the majority of reduction from the peak occurred. The temperature did not hit 30 degrees at any point before we had a day with zero cases.

So the point is that there is a clear relation to spring and summer occurring and cases dropping.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#24

Post by reitzensteinm » Fri, Nov 06, 2020, 10:45 AM UTC

tinus_hn wrote: post #23

reitzensteinm wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lockdown is over now. It started in the winter and that is when the majority of reduction from the peak occurred. The temperature did not hit 30 degrees at any point before we had a day with zero cases.

So the point is that there is a clear relation to spring and summer occurring and cases dropping.

Our best R0 was in August, very much in winter. I'm sure weather makes a difference, but it's in the noise compared to measures taken under the lockdown.

If you think there's a "clear" relation it makes me think you're not following Australia at all.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#25

Post by dang » Fri, Nov 06, 2020, 9:17 PM UTC

redis_mlc wrote: post #12

brnt wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked.

> The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked. No, that's actually what the US is doing. Besides that, there' hasn't been any science evident in either the WHO or CDC advice. Wishing something was true doesn't make it reality. Can you construct a logical argument?

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