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The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

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Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#21

> This means [it eliminated] literally a third of the time allocated for the Census Bureau to knock on doors, to try to enumerate the hard-to-count individuals, which happen to be African Americans, Latinx populations, immigrants, people in heavily transitory situations, tribal lands, some Asians. Random question but why would some races have more trouble than others responding to the census? Is it more to do with po…

American blacks were more hit by corona virus for example.

American black are incarcerated more often which affects whole community. Ex prisoners and their families have unique housing stability problems.

Their family structure is different - more single women with or without children as males are not available. Also, more tight communities. Less of nuclear family more of extended family.

White people live more segregated per socioeconomic class, black mix more. Blacks and white are segregated anyway, so whatever you do you are not reaching both.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#22

From what I can tell, a second (third?) census extension is being denied. It’s not that the census is unusually being cut short. I got a different impression from this article.

The census bureau was original granted an extension that has been rolled back. It's not being cut "unusually" short, but the pandemic drastically impacted the census bureau's ability to do their work, and we are giving them less extra time than they say they need.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#23
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor people move around vastly more frequently and often end up temporarily sharing living spaces.

Sounds like it's not discrimination against race then, but of economic status. The disenfranchisement of poor people.

[deleted]

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#24
post #5

Trying to sidestep democracy is how you end up with armed revolt. I wish both sides would realizing their destroying people’s faith in the system and how quickly that can destabilize everything.

> I wish both sides would realizing their destroying people’s faith in the system And I wish people would stop saying 'both sides' when it's 95% only one side. That's the issue. One side is now against census so people aren't represented, restricting voting so people don't get a say, and people keep saying 'both sides'.

And I wish people would stop defending the other side in that 5% as if 5% was okay.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#25

From what I can tell, a second (third?) census extension is being denied. It’s not that the census is unusually being cut short. I got a different impression from this article.

It was significantly delayed in starting, because of the pandemic. Failing to extend a pre-pandemic deadline is leaving less time than usual.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of things you can "both sides" but only one side is undermining democracy because their positions are unpopular.

Exactly. I'm sick and tired of the Democratic Party using the judicial branch and SCOTUS to legislate from the bench because they can't get their agenda through in Congress like they are supposed to.

> Democratic Party using the judicial branch and SCOTUS to legislate from the bench because

Hasn't the supreme court been majority conservative for quite some time? Not majority liberal?

(unless your comment is sarcasm)

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#27

> This means [it eliminated] literally a third of the time allocated for the Census Bureau to knock on doors, to try to enumerate the hard-to-count individuals, which happen to be African Americans, Latinx populations, immigrants, people in heavily transitory situations, tribal lands, some Asians. Random question but why would some races have more trouble than others responding to the census? Is it more to do with po…

Statistician (but not a Census statistician) here with a few answers:

Black people have a higher than average non-response rate, even controlling for income, possibly due to a cultural mistrust of government institutions (for good reason).

Recent immigrants may not be able to read the language the census was mailed to them in, and may also be hesitant to respond due to fears of deportation- the point of the census isn’t to hunt down illegals, and people here legally shouldn’t be deported anyway, but the current administration hasn’t done much to reassure people. These effects will apply in differing amounts to Latino and Asian communities.

Finally, the bulk of the census is conducted by mail, and it takes a while to complete. Families without a permanent home might not be counted because they are only temporarily living with another family when the census arrives at that house, or they might be moving between addresses so that they aren’t counted in the response by any household at those addresses. This also disproportionately affects poor people and minorities.

And at least for me, I only received instructions in the mail telling me to do the census online. Not all families have easy access to the internet, and some just can’t be bothered to take the time to respond. This again disproportionately affects poor people and minorities.

To try to counteract these problems, the Census hires people to walk on foot and get responses from low coverage areas. But if you cut down on that effort, you’re going to miss some. One of the results of this could be that the census shows fewer poor people in some cities which will affect government funding decisions. But the tough part for a statistician is showing how much time is needed to walk around and get the coverage that you desire (and how many people you hire to do it). You can make some relatively small changes to your assumptions and get different answers. But cutting the time by a third is a pretty dramatic cut, so without looking at the details, I’m guessing that the coverage has decreased. That’s generally a bad thing since a census is supposed to be a full count of the population and not a sample.

Edit: I’ll also tack on a more nefarious interpretation than just using the Census to cut federal aid money to some cities. The Census is also used to portion electoral college votes for presidential elections. Because of the communities that are affected by this undercoverage, states that normally vote Democrat are more likely to lose votes than states that normally vote Republican. So this could make it easier for a Republican president to be elected in the next couple elections (the votes for the current election will not change however).

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#28
post #5

Trying to sidestep democracy is how you end up with armed revolt. I wish both sides would realizing their destroying people’s faith in the system and how quickly that can destabilize everything.

> I wish both sides would realizing their destroying people’s faith in the system And I wish people would stop saying 'both sides' when it's 95% only one side. That's the issue. One side is now against census so people aren't represented, restricting voting so people don't get a say, and people keep saying 'both sides'.

I don't understand the Democratic side here either. There's a question of citizenship, but census data is used to determine allocation of electoral college votes. The electoral college system being something that I support but that Democrats keep trying to undermine. Yeah if you come here undocumented, or illegally, there's pretty natural consequences. I don't think anyone should ignore that. And they seem to want undocumented immigrants to be treated at the same level as legally naturalized citizens, but they rarely take any opportunities for immigration reform and the state of immigration enforcement under Obama wasn't so much better than Trump's that I yearn for the return of a Democratic presidency. So yeah - both sides erode my faith in the system. Just because I think one candidate in this election is worse doesn't mean I'm not angry at the pathetic counter from the Democrats.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha be really clear dude in this case, in this article it is not both sides. It is solidly the current administration and no one else. Our current party in power has done this. So to retype what you said more correctly. "I wish the Republicans would realize they are destroying..."

Nobody is destroying anything. This sounds more like institutional interests being defended by those who work in the institution that is forced to be more efficient. Many will complain, and scream exaggerated warnings. But in the end, it will help to make things better.

Ending things early without warning isn’t being more efficient, it’s simply not finishing the job.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#30

From what I can tell, a second (third?) census extension is being denied. It’s not that the census is unusually being cut short. I got a different impression from this article.

An extension that is agreed and then revoked would completely ruin the plans of almost any project. It is unusually being cut short.
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