Yahoo Groups is closing down

Yahoo and AOL are kept on life support only to give Verizon MAU and DAU metrics. They add to the numbers of “total active users” for the corporation as a whole. Email keeps them around. Interestingly Yahoo had a large engineering army it inherited from the offshoring to India movement of 2000s. Much of that engineering capital was left idle as the services wound down. The amount of redundant Drupal layers built to justify their presence was shocking to hear about. Whole families had moved to Sunnyvale banking on long careers at Yahoo. Many are returning now. I picked all this up anecdotally as a contractor there a few years ago. The Yahoo story will make an interesting book someday.

It will only happen if competitors rise up and take over to be honest. I do believe that's doable for most of their services (they're losing a lot of market share to Office365 for their mail and office offerings), but services like search, advertising and translate, and purchases like youtube and android will take a lot longer. Not sure about Maps, I think that's still going strong even though I don't know about their income model. That one's mainly getting gnawed at due to Apple Maps and probably Microsoft's offering being defaults on a lot of devices.

But it'll be slow attrition, it felt a lot quicker for Yahoo once Google caught traction in search.

Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about them (and several others like Apple, but we'll focus on google in this comment).

I'm baffled at how google fell into this trap, because it really seems like Larry/Sergey "got it" but the thing that basically crowned google king was that unlike almost all other major tech companies, they were willing to do R&D as a massive loss-leader.

And when I say R&D, most people think of just boffins in the lab, cooking up some crazy new thing - and they don't realize that the beefiest part of R&D happens in the market. You build a giant new thing, and only when it's actually in the hands of tons of people do you really figure out what the hell it's "for". When the web first came out it was useless. Things like webmail, wikipedia, online video - these made the web useful. But these took another 20-30 years to build! MULTIPLE DECADES! People don't realize how insanely slow technology develops - everyone thinks tech is moving really fast, but it's actually a very slow industry.

What's scared me about Google - and the first really "black mark" was Wave, was them starting to pull the life support on these fundamentally viable products years, even decades, before the world had a chance to figure out what the hell they were for. Google was uniquely suited to try these things, in a way almost no other companies can, because they, uniquely, had an almost evergreen fountainhead of revenue. Ads are not going away, and if Google ever lost its hegemony over them, no amount of cost-control would save the company. So cost-control is completely useless for them - it cannot help them if they're in trouble, and it's only a negative if they're not in trouble. The only sensible behavior is to fanatically defend that revenue stream, but then to also be completely, ludicrously promiscuous with the cash they've got. To spend money in ways that would give business management schools heartattacks. Because that is something they, alone, can do.

There's a similar tragedy with Glass - and that one, at least, I can clearly see what it was for, but google axed it because decision-makers in the company thought it was another useless toy. Glass would have been a godsend for a ton of working, specialist professions, to essentially have a pilot-like HUD giving them critical information. Imagine a surgeon using glass to get live vitals on the patient - hell - imagine a surgeon using glass with an adaptive machine-learning program that matches prior CAT scans to the living tissues the surgeon is operating on, and helps guide them to the site of i.e. a cancerous tumor, or a foreign object in a wound.

Or imagine a construction worker using Glass to place pieces of the wooden framework of a house they're building - guiding themselves with an AR projection of the blueprint.

The possibilities are absolutely wild.

But then, before the proverbial plane was even allowed to do its first flight, they cut the funding and just chopped everything. Glass was just, gone.

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That's the thing that scares me about Google right now - as long as they're tight-fisted (or really: not promiscuous) about money like this, they've lost their ability to meaningfully innovate. At the rate things are going, nothing weird enough to be game-changing is gonna get a chance. That aspect of having a "useless toy" phase isn't an accident - it pretty much is absolutely mandatory for every product that's been a civilization changer.

We don't know what they're for, because we haven't "changed our culture" yet. For example - people had no analogous behavior to "making a quick phone call" before it existed. Phones had to be out there - and be in the hands of enough people you'd want to call, before the average person reflexively thought "oh, gosh, I could just call that person!". Before teenagers could kill half-hours sitting by the window with a phone to their ear; the time-cost of walking, beforehand, just made casual conversations like that impossible (unless the person was literally in your neighborhood). It changed our culture; just like cars did. Or TV. This, by the way, is why all those old-timey predictions of the future are always comedically inaccurate - it's because they're blind to a change in future culture.

The other thing is we haven't "built the infrastructure" - if you build something like Glass, if it's gonna be worth a damn you have to wait the full decade or two that it takes to build out all those pipe-dream apps like Surgery AR. They just take a long time to build. (Analogy: cars were useless until you could reasonably expect to be able to buy gasoline at, and have flat roads leading to, your destination).

And furthermore - you've gotta build the "economic ecosystem" so that all the people making those apps believe that your platform - your google glass - is going to be a firm "bedrock" to build what's basically going to be their entire career, on. If they're building a serious, professional tool like that hypothetical Surgeon's AR, it's as deep of a rabbit-hole dive as something like ProTools or Photoshop. It's like getting married. If you start an app like that you're gonna be building that for the rest of your life, if it's going to be any good. So the platform vendor has to convince you and everybody that this platform is going to be around "forever".

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And that trust - that trust of "support something forever" is something Google's torpedoed. If they come up with something genuinely cool, you'll get some kooky startups messing around with it but you're going to scare away all the lifers. And as a result, you're never going to get the god-tier professional tools that create a new industry. You'll never get the equivalent of ProTools, or Photoshop, or Blender.

Which means they're doomed to stay toys, fizzle out after a few years, and quietly get put out to pasture.

It's very similar to what happened to Xerox. Crazy stuff getting built in the labs, but a company struggling to understand it needs that product to be artificially spoon-fed to the public for multiple years before humanity understands what the hell they're supposed to do with it.

It bugs me partly because I don't want them to have the same sort of business troubles Xerox had, but it also bugs me because this sort of behavior stagnates the human race's tech development. Because if google isn't doing these sorts of "grand experiments" - nobody else can. Nobody else can operate on that scale.

It is I think, my mom still uses it and still has a yahoo email address. I'm guessing there's a lot of older users for whom yahoo was good enough and is still good enough given their usage.

I mean it’s Oath now is it not