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Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

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Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#21

Post by shantara »

caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit...

And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled.

To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#22

Post by wtallis »

caiobegotti wrote: post #7
akreal wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't have to launch on BO, they can use any launch provider.

You're right, but the article suggests otherwise. Their deadline to put half of the satellites in orbit is 2026 so it's plenty of time for BO to have launch capability but until they put ONE object in orbit it's all vaporware, unless Amazon says right now Kuiper is open to other launch providers, which I have not seen in any news source yet.

Half the satellites is still a lot of satellites. BO would need to ramp up to at least monthly launches sometime in the next two years. SpaceX is only doing a little better than that, and they started sending the Falcon 9 to orbit in 2010.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#24

Post by cwhiz »

halfFact wrote: post #5

SpaceX is a private military contractor that gets tax money from citizens. Amazon is a public company that needs to disclose their revenue sources and comes from private/voluntary sources. They aren't even comparable.

>They aren't even comparable.

It is true. SpaceX has delivered astronauts to and from the space station, whereas Blue Origin has yet to achieve a single orbital flight. They are not comparable at all.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#25

Post by jncraton »

caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days.

We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succeeded in launching payloads to orbit?

They appear to be making steady progress, both on reusability and on their BE-4 engine. There doesn't appear to be any real insurmountable obstacles between where they are today and orbital flight.

I'm not saying they will absolutely succeed, but their success feels more like a when than an if unless Bezos decides to pull the plug for some reason. Whether they can do this by 2026 is of course a different matter.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#26

Post by newsclues »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

Because they haven’t done “the hard thing” yet.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#27

Post by bhupy »

newsclues wrote: post #26
jncraton wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

Because they haven’t done “the hard thing” yet.

Sure, but there doesn't appear to be anything intrinsic to BO that lends itself a particular disadvantage to doing "the hard thing".

They appear to have the requisite resources & staff, so predicting that they will never do "the hard thing" seems a bit like spiking the football after the first quarter.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#28

Post by NikolaeVarius »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

BO doesn't have a PR campaign since they haven't done anything to campaign about.

The Falcon 9, started design in 2005, first launched in 2010 and rapidly improved to the state we have now.

Meanwhile, the New Glenn started in 2012 and has yet to produce anything but engine tests videos, which are cool, but its not a vehicle.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#29

Post by [deleted] »

wtallis wrote: post #22
caiobegotti wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, but the article suggests otherwise. Their deadline to put half of the satellites in orbit is 2026 so it's plenty of time for BO to have launch capability but until they put ONE object in orbit it's all vaporware, unless Amazon says right now Kuiper is open to other launch providers, which I have not seen in any news source yet.

Half the satellites is still a lot of satellites . BO would need to ramp up to at least monthly launches sometime in the next two years. SpaceX is only doing a little better than that, and they started sending the Falcon 9 to orbit in 2010.

[deleted]

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#30

Post by [deleted] »

iso1210 wrote: post #12
halfFact wrote: post #5

SpaceX is a private military contractor that gets tax money from citizens. Amazon is a public company that needs to disclose their revenue sources and comes from private/voluntary sources. They aren't even comparable.

Amazon opened an entire data centre to deal with the governemnt

[deleted]
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