21–30 of 48 posts
So, sure there is value, but feet to the ground
He's been given far too much credit for being a 'nice guy' whilst most operationalising the foundations left for him. He has not done anything fundamental for the company, other than changed the tone of the leadership of the company. He's a good steward.
TikTok is completely out of MS cultural reach, and in that way it's a poor fit. Remember Skype? How about IE that ruled the world and MS couldn't figure it out either.
To boot, TikTok is a fad. It's just a bigger vine, and teenager will quickly move on to something more substantial over time.
FB is truly a social network and has a degree of lock-in and therefore staying power, but younger people have largely fled it as well. Snapchat and Twitter both have baseline utility for communicating.
I'm not sure TikTok is any of that - it has the faddish appeal, but none of the underlying utility.
I can't believe I'm the first to point this out, but this article is kind of obviously wrong. The analysis in the article is like looking at Tesla on an earnings per share basis, when it's actually heavily priced on forward projected earning potential. Like Tesla, Tiktok is a growth stock. This valuation doesn't reflect its current value per user - it's baking in an implied doubling or trebling of its user base in so…
I can't believe I'm the first to point this out, but this article is kind of obviously wrong. The analysis in the article is like looking at Tesla on an earnings per share basis, when it's actually heavily priced on forward projected earning potential. Like Tesla, Tiktok is a growth stock. This valuation doesn't reflect its current value per user - it's baking in an implied doubling or trebling of its user base in so…
They go on to acknowledge the growth profile and valuation multiples vs competitors based off projected profits ...which is probably the more useful way to look at it -
There have been reports of investors valuing TikTok around $50 billion in the takeover bid, this is approximately 50 times its projected revenue for 2020. Many publications have compared this to SnapChat’s market capitalization which sits around $33 billion at the moment (15 times its 2020 projected revenue). While Snapchat exists within the same social media ecosystem the comparison has to account for two factors.
1) TikTok vs Snapchat’s position in the growth cycle 2) TikTok vs Snapchat’s core proposition
The most interesting thing about this deal outside the obvious political drama in my opinion is that this will change Big Tech landscape overnight. Microsoft has done enterprise so well for so long but has always struggled on 'consumer tech' outside of its Windows OS. Acquiring a social media platform is going to catapault it into the heart of consumer tech. Question is will TikTok be a parallell arm or will it help…
Who created this lie that Microsoft struggled with consumer? Xbox was always consumer and is massive. A huge chunk of the Windows line was always about consumers. The office line straddled both. Hotmail was consumer first.
MS has what I call the 6 versions rule. v1 do not get, v2 interesting toy, v3 hey kinda usable, v4 get this thing it is cool, v5 they manage to mess it up badly, v6 just kinda put that back but not quite. They then toggle between v5 and v6.
Does $588/user include _future growth of new users_?
The only thing is, TikTok will be an amazing advertising platform for the up and coming Gen Z. I do believe its an absurd price though, Facebook is around $288 per user vs $588 here. If a platform that is very good at making money from Millenials, Gen X and even Boomers (all of these generations are established in their careers, and have far more money than Gen Z) is $288 per user how is this ever going to pay off?
I guess one thing to consider is that Facebook MAU is declining while TikTok is on the growth track. Also, the 85m users of TikTok considered here are all U.S. users, who on average must be (potentially) more valuable than the average Facebook user.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I guess one thing to consider is that Facebook MAU is declining while TikTok is on the growth track. Also, the 85m users of TikTok considered here are all U.S. users, who on average must be (potentially) more valuable than the average Facebook user.
Facebook MAU grew from 2.3B to 2.6B monthly active users between 2019 and 2020. What do you mean by 'declining'?
The most interesting thing about this deal outside the obvious political drama in my opinion is that this will change Big Tech landscape overnight. Microsoft has done enterprise so well for so long but has always struggled on 'consumer tech' outside of its Windows OS. Acquiring a social media platform is going to catapault it into the heart of consumer tech. Question is will TikTok be a parallell arm or will it help…