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Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

forbes.com

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Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#21

Post by claudeganon »

option wrote: post #14
claudeganon wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are coasting on tiny savings, eviction freezes, not paying bills, and moving in with their friends or families. Or at least my friends anyway. The fall/winter is going to be an absolute disaster because you can’t fix anything about the economy without getting the pandemic under control, which a large percentage of our leaders in the US have decided they have no obligation to do.

Please remember to vote based on candidates’ record not FB/Youtube ads

I don’t know what this is supposed to mean, but this failure extends across both parties in the United States. The refusal by politicians to take on Capital owners is pushing people into homelessness, loss of healthcare, or danger in low wage jobs, all of which further exacerbate the pandemic.

The mainstream of the Democratic Party has advanced little that would address any of this, mostly quibbling over means testing income supports and lurching right. And we can just look at that state of the pandemic in the US to know what the other side thinks we should be doing.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#22

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

kiplkipl wrote: post #6
llamataboot wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would guess that most unemployed people don't have money in individual stocks in the market. In fact, 85% of all stock is owned by the richest 10% of Americans. While it is true that a slim majority of Americans have some stock, the vast majority of that is in retirement plans, not brokerage accounts.

I've heard the following theory: Most trading volume is algorithmic, so it only takes a small number of real humans doing unusual trading activity for markets to move. I've phrased it like this because I don't have expertise.

The theory's going around, but it doesn't ultimately make much sense. Algorithmic trading is still set up and managed by humans on a day-to-day basis, so it can't by itself explain persistent market highs.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#23

Post by conception »

nickthegreek wrote: post #15
ethanwillis wrote: post #2

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

I know several people who had been furloughed, including my 69 yr old mother and the extra $600 has been a godsend to them. I dont even understand where we would be as a country if that legislation had not passed considering 1 in 3 homeowner/renters missed their payments last month.

Not discounting what you said but the 30% thing is bad but a bit of a poor statistic in that usually the number is about 20%. This is because it’s not 30% can’t pay rent but 30% didn’t pay on time. By the end of the month the number who had paid was like 92% vs 96% a year ago.

So yes bad but less bad with context and certainly something that is a leading indicator of something very very bad.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#24

Post by raziel2701 »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #10
NiekvdMaas wrote: post #3

Meanwhile the S&P 500 is 5% away from an ATH record. Unemployed people = gambling with stocks + FOMO?

No. The government is injecting tons of cash into the market. This props prices up and causes inflation, or at very least avoids deflation.

The economic data (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h...) where we can see falling numbers in consumer loans and credit cards.

I think people have rushed into stocks because they think that that's the safe haven for their money against inflation as they think the Fed is "printing money" and causing inflation, but the data is showing deflation. If deflation continues, bonds would be the safer place to be.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#25

Post by JohnTHaller »

alexpetralia wrote: post #8
ethanwillis wrote: post #2

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

Do you have any sense of how people are managing? I sort of assumed that people _must_ be receiving money because there's no way Americans in the lower deciles of savings would be able to pay their bills consistently without work or stimulus. If there's no stimulus and no work, how are they paying bills? Is it on credit? Was there actually some savings?

25% of folks in NYC, the largest rental market in the US, haven't made rent payments since March. NYC has put a hold on evictions, but their owed rent is still building up. The majority of Americans weren't able to cover an unexpected $500 expense before the pandemic hit. The full depth of how bad this is going to get hasn't hit most people nor has it hit the markets.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#28

Post by wronglebowski »

ethanwillis wrote: post #16
alexpetralia wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sense of how people are managing? I sort of assumed that people _must_ be receiving money because there's no way Americans in the lower deciles of savings would be able to pay their bills consistently without work or stimulus. If there's no stimulus and no work, how are they paying bills? Is it on credit? Was there actually some savings?

I can really only give my personal viewpoint of it. But for me personally I just have not been paying my mortgage only because I was lucky enough to have a government backed mortgage loan where I could tell the bank "tough shit" until the end of the year. Also there have been temporary measures in place for things like utilities, ISPs, mobile phone plans etc. where people will keep accruing obligations on their bills…

In my experience access to credit besides credit cards has been extremely limited.

My wife and I looked into several different personal or short term loan options for our upcoming IVF cycle(approx 30k$). Most banks have either stopped offering them completely or made the requirements much harder. The two of us with credit scores of 750+, combined 200k annual income and little existing debt couldn't get approved for a simple 5k$ loan.

I fear for those that have a more dire need for the cash than we do.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#29

Post by _wldu »

paulmd wrote: post #20
alexpetralia wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sense of how people are managing? I sort of assumed that people _must_ be receiving money because there's no way Americans in the lower deciles of savings would be able to pay their bills consistently without work or stimulus. If there's no stimulus and no work, how are they paying bills? Is it on credit? Was there actually some savings?

Roughly 1 in 3 american households are behind on their housing payments. Most states (and all federally backed mortgages) have temporarily suspended evictions so the short answer is that people in financial distress dropped that expense, which is usually the single largest on most people's budgets (for low-income people this can often be 50% or more of take-home depending on the city - yes, the rule of thumb is that…

Almost 40% of homes in America are owned free and clear (no mortgage). https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nea...
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