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Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

coronavirus.ohio.gov

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Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#21

Post by centimeter »

slg wrote: post #19
centimeter wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-onl…

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.

If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#24

Post by davidw »

GloriousKoji wrote: post #10
whycombagator wrote: post #7

I'd also be interested in how many have detrimental side effects from the virus, after recovery. Mostly all I see from covid numbers are black & white: died/recovered. There was an article recently on HN that talked about the possible lasting effects of the virus[0]. I am interested to know how frequently lasting effects occur [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23127167

The National Geographic article from a few months ago covers the lasting effects much better. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-w...

Given all we're learning, and how fast things are happening, a couple of months ago is a long time.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#25

Post by cbarrick »

burgreblast wrote: post #2

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…

The number of "inmates currently Positive for COVID-19" is 1,112, not 4,439.

I think you're counting tests, not people. Those numbers double count inmates who receive multiple tests, and it's likely that those who have tested positive will receive frequent retests.

FYI there's just under 40k total inmates.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#26

Post by paulgb »

centimeter wrote: post #21
slg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.

If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.

Any recommendations?

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#27

Post by npunt »

burgreblast wrote: post #2

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…

There have been other state prisons that have released prisoners that were severe cases, so as to lower their death numbers. Look for that.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#28

Post by sirsar »

burgreblast wrote: post #2

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…

> total 49 deaths (.01)

If you're going to report other ratios as percentages, could you please be consistent? I initially erroneously read this as 0.01% deaths, which would be an absolutely enormous update, but 1% isn't surprising at all.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#29

Post by kiba »

burgreblast wrote: post #2

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamo…

Don't forget we can't really acquire complete mortality data until the coronavirus run their courses in infected individual.

Re: Ohio Prison Death Updates [pdf]

#30

Post by sdenton4 »

centimeter wrote: post #16
sdenton4 wrote: post #11

Just as an extra wrench in the works, an unknown number of prisoners have been released or transferred, probably after being deemed higher risk: https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/regulation/court-ba... So death rates may still be reduced by interventions. Take care, arm chair statisticians.

> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-onl…

The remark is mainly directed to the pile of comments already in this thread trying to naively divide column sums to get a death rate...
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