The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May • Hacker News Board

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#21

Post by zozbot234 » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:11 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

The "very low fatality risk" thing only applies to people who can get proper treatment for the disease. If healthcare resources get overwhelmed, the fatality risk will get a lot higher, for the younger population also.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#22

Post by smallgovt » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:11 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> How is it moral to order people to shelter in place when their risk of death is 0.01% for 18-45 year olds

The data from your second source indicates that the case fatality rate in New York for 18-45 yr olds is 0.833% (14 deaths in 1705 confirmed cases). Where are you getting 0.01% from?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#23

Post by AnotherGoodName » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

I assume you're in agreement that a complete re-opening would be stupid? If so what things specifically would you like to see re-opened specifically?

I think asking to re-open some specific low risk businesses would be reasonable.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#24

Post by vanniv » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

killion wrote: post #2

We are down 50% from the peak of Covid deaths in California. It seems likely we will have one or more days of zero Covid deaths before the end of May. That is the measure I assume they are going for at this point. Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/cali...

California has no intent to ever end the lockdowns.

On February 26th, 2077, the Mayor of San Francisco and the Governor of California will sign an extension of the temporary emergency lockdown until "at least April 1st"

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#25

Post by quotemstr » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

In circumstances such as these, widespread civil disobedience is justifiable.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#26

Post by timerol » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> The new order will include limited easing of specific restrictions for a small number of lower-risk activities.

It appears that this will be the slow start of ending the lockdown.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#27

Post by BurningFrog » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

gotoeleven wrote: post #9

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

Hopefully this will be the impetus we need to finally start living underground like mole people.

How well do we know mole viruses?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#28

Post by 0x8BADF00D » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

hombre_fatal wrote: post #4

I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…

They will do the same thing homeowners will do; not pay. I hope nobody on here owns munis or bank stocks. Or REITs.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#29

Post by scott_s » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#30

Post by Uhhrrr » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 9:13 PM UTC

San Francisco has only had 18 COVID-19 deaths in the last 30 days, and only 2 in the last week. [0] That seems amazingly low to me.

I'm leaning towards thinking non-essential businesses should be opened up there, provided they function under the same restrictions as grocery stores etc.

[0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_...