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U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

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Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#21

Post by armenarmen »

throwlaplace wrote: post #14
hpoe wrote: post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

>Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. i'm not a vegetarian but if the choice is between people living and me having access to pork i choose the former.

good for you!

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#22

Post by mlyle »

IIAOPSW wrote: post #17

One pet peeve I have with this article is that it doesn't explicitly state the cause of the shutdowns are Corona virus infected employees until half way through. I was 90% sure, but there was still a chance of coincidence. Anyway the meat industry isn't special. The whole economy needs to run on stocked up supplies and skeleton crews for a while. That's why its so important to get this right the first time. If the lo…

That's not how it's going to work. There's no reasonable way to extinguish this in one swell foop.

We need to move (ASAP) in jurisdictions where the virus is largely under control, to half-measures that are hopefully sufficient to prevent another large incident wave and that provide economic output/lets us "stock up again". This will allow a slow reduction in population susceptibility. And we need to be ready to tighten again if it looks like we're going to run out of ICU capacity.

As bad as New York's response has been, treading right next to disaster/health care overload, they may have attained a magical proportion of the population where Rt is greatly reduced. I'm betting that when we have the serology study, we'll find 15-30%, or even more-- of the population of NYC has antibodies-- a good chunk of the way to herd immunity and enough to greatly reduce the amount of control measures needed to control the virus.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#23

Post by ZainRiz »

More stories about how covid19 is really screwing up other parts of the supply chain

Farmers being forced to pour milk down the drain:

https://twitter.com/freshairfarmer/status/124787620556452659...

Retail toilet paper manufacturers not setup to handle load from people pooping at home instead of work (and corporate TP factories don't know how to sell to grocery stores):

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about...

Covid testing blocked because of equipment regulations:

https://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1249115887413743616

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#24

Post by throwlaplace »

armenarmen wrote: post #21
throwlaplace wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. i'm not a vegetarian but if the choice is between people living and me having access to pork i choose the former.

good for you!

are you really being sarcastic? you wouldn't?

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#25

Post by simonh »

vkou wrote: post #9
empath75 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact, government stimulus will just cause hyperinflation as more money chases less goods and services.

1. We would need to print quadrillions of dollars to get hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a boogieman, unless this administration completely loses its mind. 2. Recessions cause the destruction of money (Due to defaults, and lack of new loans). This causes deflation. If the new money created by the printing press does not exceed these deflationary pressures, you won't even get inflation, let alone hyperinflation. 3.…

All good points, deflation is a serious risk in a situation like this. But also a dose of moderate inflation for a few years or even a decade could help. One of the effects of inflation is to erode the value of loans, deficits and liabilities. In a way it spreads out their costs across the economy and over time.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#26

Post by [deleted] »

hpoe wrote: post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#27

Post by perl4ever »

throwlaplace wrote: post #14
hpoe wrote: post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

>Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. i'm not a vegetarian but if the choice is between people living and me having access to pork i choose the former.

I don't need pork, a friend sent me some canned spam!

But seriously, it's never going to be a binary thing. 100 years ago, people ate far less meat, because it was relatively more expensive and scarcer. While avoiding shopping, I've not been eating meat on a daily basis. Once a week or so is fine.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#28

Post by mlyle »

markdown wrote: post #19
hpoe wrote: post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

> or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. I'd love to see some rich people forced to work in meat packing plants alongside men and women infected with this coronavirus. It's inherently immoral to force people to work at great risk to themselves and their families just because "the economy", as would be the case in states where the abhorrent practice of at-will employment is law.

Of course, this raises the question-- what's an unacceptable level of risk?

We obviously don't shut everything down because of 1 in 1,000,000 risks. We don't shut everything down for 250 in 1M risks (the flu).

Here we have what's likely to be a 1,800 in 1M risk, based on the latest infection fatality rate numbers and the estimate of how many people would be infected before herd immunity. It's 7x worse than the flu. It's also not a risk that it's clear we'll be able to avoid. So here it gets hard to reason about what's right to do.

And, of course, we obviously can't act to protect people at a level that will result in worse outcomes, like starvation or famine or collapse of public order.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#29

Post by throwlaplace »

perl4ever wrote: post #27
throwlaplace wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. i'm not a vegetarian but if the choice is between people living and me having access to pork i choose the former.

I don't need pork, a friend sent me some canned spam! But seriously, it's never going to be a binary thing. 100 years ago, people ate far less meat, because it was relatively more expensive and scarcer. While avoiding shopping, I've not been eating meat on a daily basis. Once a week or so is fine.

>But seriously, it's never going to be a binary thing

the person i responded to is portraying it as a necessary dichotomy i.e. some sort of catastrophic disruption to the food supply chain. the article in particular discusses pork, not even chicken or beef.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#30

Post by [deleted] »

vkou wrote: post #5
hpoe wrote: post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

You're missing some key facts. 1. Meatpacking, and its supporting supply chains is an essential business. No state in the US has lifted a finger to shut it down. 2. These plant shutdowns are caused by people working in meatpacking plants getting sick, and being unable to work. I don't understand how you can blame this on an economic shutdown. If anything, without the shutdown, the meatpackers would have gotten sick s…

[deleted]
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