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NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

newsroom.co.nz

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Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#21

Post by mikedilger »

Taniwha wrote: post #13
mikedilger wrote: post #9

"Without fast case isolation after restrictions ease, modelling shows that the virus could spread exponentially and ultimately kill 100,000 Kiwis." The left out the word "unreasonable". "Unresaonable modelling shows..." See the Tailrisk analysis: http://www.tailrisk.co.nz/documents/Corona.pdf

Yeah but the Tailrisk guy is not an epidemiologist, he's out of treasury and naturally has is more economy focused outlook. One person's "unreasonable" can be another's "sensible caution"

You're right about that guy. So I'll be more specific. The model that shows large numbers like 14,400 (not even 100,000) presumes we do NO contact tracing at all (not just slower contact tracing). I'd wager most people would agree that is an unreasonable assumption.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#22

Post by anpago »

With all the issues with tracing apps listed. I can see the systems around the world causing more problems than benefits for the person in the street.

Possibly the concern for many of ending up causing massive issues in their social and work circles. Will mean many simply wrap in tinfoil if indeed they bother to carry at all.

No body wants to be known as the person who sat the otherside of a drywall partition to someone covid 19 positive. Which meant they then basically quartined for two weeks all their work mates in a role which was not WFH compatible and hit them all in the wallet.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#23

Post by aaron695 »

Once again we ignore Asia and their clear lessons with covid-19 because they are not enough like us.

Electronic solutions don't work, even in compliant countries like Singapore they don't, it's boots on the ground that does.

Here's a good write up on Australia's attempts as they stand -

https://medium.com/swlh/some-basic-points-on-contact-tracing...

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#24

Post by beatthatflight »

sky_rw wrote: post #17
popped wrote: post #11

Surely just installing an app voluntarily would get enough tracing to be effective? As a kiwi who has spent half my life living in different countries, I can say trust in the government here, while not universal, is higher than anywhere else I've been. I think most people would do it

You literally have a government official who's title is "Chief Censor". I have no doubt that trust in the government is high. Thats what government censorship is for.

Chief Censor...for film and literature publications.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#25

Post by james_s_tayler »

I think if they could both work in conjunction with each other that would be ideal. I'd try the app for sure, but success rate doesn't seem to be high enough in Singapore for an app only to be the sole solution. Use as many approaches as you can make compatible ups the chances of uptake.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#26

Post by james_s_tayler »

popped wrote: post #11

Surely just installing an app voluntarily would get enough tracing to be effective? As a kiwi who has spent half my life living in different countries, I can say trust in the government here, while not universal, is higher than anywhere else I've been. I think most people would do it

I trust our government quite a bit too. Would have no qualms downloading and using an app. I want an app. I'm less keen on the card, but honestly whatever gets the highest ability to trace the most number of contacts is what I'm for. The numbers out of Singapore dont seem to indicate an app alone is a good enough solution.

The hybrid approach the article suggest where perhaps the card + app could be compatible would be ideal.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#27

Post by james_s_tayler »

sky_rw wrote: post #17
popped wrote: post #11

Surely just installing an app voluntarily would get enough tracing to be effective? As a kiwi who has spent half my life living in different countries, I can say trust in the government here, while not universal, is higher than anywhere else I've been. I think most people would do it

You literally have a government official who's title is "Chief Censor". I have no doubt that trust in the government is high. Thats what government censorship is for.

Yet our freedom of press is quite astounding. No daily attacks on journalist. No claiming fake news. The daily news reports when what the government says doesn't line up with what the situation on the ground is like. The government turned down the opportunity to buy a big media company that went bust recently and one of the reasons cited was "we don't want the government owning the media".

Right on.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#28

Post by ElCapitanMarkla »

sky_rw wrote: post #17
popped wrote: post #11

Surely just installing an app voluntarily would get enough tracing to be effective? As a kiwi who has spent half my life living in different countries, I can say trust in the government here, while not universal, is higher than anywhere else I've been. I think most people would do it

You literally have a government official who's title is "Chief Censor". I have no doubt that trust in the government is high. Thats what government censorship is for.

Here we go again...

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#29

Post by bandushrew »

mikedilger wrote: post #9

"Without fast case isolation after restrictions ease, modelling shows that the virus could spread exponentially and ultimately kill 100,000 Kiwis." The left out the word "unreasonable". "Unresaonable modelling shows..." See the Tailrisk analysis: http://www.tailrisk.co.nz/documents/Corona.pdf

That analysis is a perfectly good 'model', but it makes a few interesting/weird choices and assumptions of its own.

"The true burden of the epidemic can be calculated by applying an factor of around 0.15 to the number of account for life years lost. 500 deaths becomes, 75 on an adjusted basis, and can be compared with the 350 lives lost on the roads each year" - He means, of course, the true economic burden, which is a specifically different thing.

Putting that aside (although it clearly reflects his economic bias), actually implementing his model assumes that we can request the public to maintain a variety of distinct contact levels accurately, Im not convinced that we could expect the public to do that effectively over time.

His model is also extremely dependent on accurate testing and contact tracing, which grows exponentially harder as we increase the level of allowable contact.

His model is fine as far as models go, but it definitely makes the assumption that things like level of contact and contact tracing are as easy to adjust and manipulate as his normal treasury numbers, and I personally believe that is a fallacy.

Re: NZ considering $100M contact tracing ‘CovidCard’

#30

Post by teruakohatu »

Taniwha wrote: post #8
teruakohatu wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some media here have claimed a 6 months to a year of battery life. I am very skeptical.

Exactly - I'm not saying it can't be done, just that I'm highly highly skeptical

Just noticed the username. Feel free to shoot me an email, would be keen to hear what kind of work you do in nz.
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