Blue Origin pressures employees to travel to rural TX to test launch New Shepard • Hacker News Board

Re: Blue Origin pressures employees to travel to rural TX to test launch New Shepard

#21

Post by CSSer » Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #12

CSSer wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At best, they’ll get it but just at a rate where they die at an acceptable rate. They’ll save lives by ensuring medical staff can attend to people who would otherwise die of problems that are wholly treatable with modern medicine. > herd immunity Let’s do the math. Based on what I have read, it would take infecting 70 percent of the population to reach herd immunity with this virus based on the R0 value of roughly…

I waded through a 2 hour long presentation by a dozen doctors at UCSF. One of the things that came up was herd immunity. The epidemiologist basically said herd immunity won't happen for this virus because r0 is too high. My thought is people that think herd immunity would be a couple of week long thing have no idea what they are talking about and are working from a place of denial. Consider MERS, MERS is still around…

You’re probably right. It’s like they’re not even really digesting the numbers I and at least one other person have put in front of them. There’s some extreme cognitive dissonance going on if they really think that the results of just unleashing this in force on the population are really the same whether you do it all at once or spread it out over an arbitrary period. These are not fiscal installment payments, and we can’t just wave a magic wand and suddenly make our healthcare system capable of handling it over night.

After thinking about it for a moment, I really hope you’re right, because the alternatives just make me sad.

Re: Blue Origin pressures employees to travel to rural TX to test launch New Shepard

#22

Post by bskap » Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 7:53 AM UTC

pjkundert wrote: post #18

greedo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that math can be challenging for some, but I'll try to help you through this. Say we follow the Kundert Methodology. Intentionally get 100M people in the US sick in over 2-3 weeks. Of those, approximately 15% are requiring hospital care. 15M people. Guess how many hospital beds we have in the US? According to the American Hospital Association, we have roughly 900k beds. So 14.1M patients aren't treated. Not go…

Yes, apparently math can be challenging. Healthy young people with no underlying health issues are at very low risk. South of .1% mortality. The arguments given apply exactly to the presently executed plan, just over a year’s duration. During which time, 75% of businesses will be extinguished. Good luck with that plan, hinging on keeping the elderly and those with health issues isolated for a year. I’m sort of sicken…

Healthy young people with no underlying health issues are at very low risk of dying if they can get medical care. If we run out of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators, the death rate climbs. If we run out of doctors and nurses to care for the hospitalized patients because they're all home sick with COVID-19, the death rate climbs. The death rate isn't a static feature of the disease, it's a function of how well we can care for the ill.

Re: Blue Origin pressures employees to travel to rural TX to test launch New Shepard

#23

Post by lagilogi » Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 11:14 AM UTC

pjkundert wrote: post #2

Enough, already! Get volunteers, and get it done! All “at risk” and any scared people should be self-isolating, and the rest of us should be voluntarily holding raves and getting this civilization to “herd immunity” level by 2-3 weeks from now. For healthy The alternative — a year of social distancing and partial quarantine — stands a good chance of seriously damaging or destroying our civilization. Put on some big-b…

This comment is encouraging and promoting self harm.