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Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

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Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#21

Post by taeric »

formerchamp wrote: post #17
taeric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't a chart. Or even a reference. :( Where are you getting these numbers?

There are several MSM sites reporting the death toll of US corona victims and they hover around 500 total at the moment. Note that they're very liberally grouping deaths into the corona bucket so I expect the number to be much lower in a post mortem. It's going to be like Trump's 2016 win where everyone was left scratching their heads and wondering how their math/fake science failed them. My flu death rate of 200/day…

Thanks for referencing the cdc numbers. Google quickly confirmed that, and is what I was asking for. I hoped to have it per month, but don't see that immediately.

Any chance you know where to find this for other countries?

Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#22

Post by bufferoverflow »

formerchamp wrote: post #14
bufferoverflow wrote: post #9

Fake news. Italy has one of the lowest mortality rates from Influenza. https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza... https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/#5o3t8K9BTb https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-t...

The paper I posted was from the international journal of infectious diseases and you give me a site with shaolin monks doing kata as a header.

The source of the data is WHO, a more reputable organization than any single paper, even if peer reviewed.

Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#23

Post by bob33212 »

cjhopman wrote: post #18
formerchamp wrote: post #2

Can we trust Italy's numbers? They're attributing any questionable death to corona to hide their embarrassing influenza death rate. This can almost explain USA's minuscule death toll at 500 (influenza season averages 200/day).

For those wondering if the people minimizing this disease as nothing more than a weaker influenza are correct, here's some data from new york's hospitals: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-s... Visits to emergency for Influenza-likeIllness+Pneumonia is at ~1.5x a bad flu season's peak and ~4x a normal flu season. Admissions for the same are at ~2-3x.

Great dataset! does this get updated frequently? We just need 3-6 more weeks to know how this plays out. Do we hit 50x flu deaths or 5x flu deaths...

Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#25

Post by taeric »

fordred wrote: post #24
Gatsky wrote: post #11

The case fatality is As bad as Italy is, India worries me the most by far.

What's the CFR when you do deaths/(deaths+recovered). Calculating deaths/cases is very misleading, as there are many people still in the "pipeline"

That number requires you to know the total recovered. With asymptomatic becoming popular from this, hard to believe we know that number. And many reasons to believe total cases is undercounted everywhere. To the point that we are seeing negative effects from skyrocketing numbers due largely to testing increases.

Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#26

Post by Gatsky »

taeric wrote: post #19
Gatsky wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No direct evidence. But any reasonable parameters for the viral reproductive number and mortality, along with clear evidence of asymptomatic carriage, lead to this inevitable conclusion.

To be fair, I agree the expected case to death rate is less than one percent normally. The questions this leads to, is why it is higher on Italy? Either in reach of infection, or in deaths? This article implies their infection to death rate was already elevated for the flu. Most accept this is, at best, a deadly flu. That would strengthen this hypothesis. But your hypothesis seems to be there are more infected in Ita…

I don’t think there is anything special about Italy, they just started earlier than other countries (1st cases were 3 weeks before other Euro countries) and in some provinces didn’t take it seriously.

Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza

#27

Post by taeric »

Gatsky wrote: post #26
taeric wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, I agree the expected case to death rate is less than one percent normally. The questions this leads to, is why it is higher on Italy? Either in reach of infection, or in deaths? This article implies their infection to death rate was already elevated for the flu. Most accept this is, at best, a deadly flu. That would strengthen this hypothesis. But your hypothesis seems to be there are more infected in Ita…

I don’t think there is anything special about Italy, they just started earlier than other countries (1st cases were 3 weeks before other Euro countries) and in some provinces didn’t take it seriously.

Per another thread, the US has to start seeing the numbers they have had to date every two days for this to be worse then last year's flu. Per this article, Italy has to continue with their current pace to hit last year's numbers. For another few weeks.

Let that sink in. Italy had 25,000 deaths attributed to flu like illness two years ago. They are at 6000. Accepting that this is a hard flu like virus, we would expect them to have bad numbers. Why? What is so bad about Italy?

Again, comparing to the flu is not minimizing. The flu is already a terrible virus.

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