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And yet, if every investment (including cash, because there is a near-certainty of the government turning to inflation to solve all these problems) is crashing, then isn't it the case that nothing is crashing?
Take it with a grain of salt but I am hearing (through finance podcasts) that a lot of hedge fund managers and investment bankers are working alone from home and without physical proximity with their teams, the panic levels are setting in. I think it makes sense to me - when we are not physically banded together, we have a lost sense of safety and security.
What were their sources? My experience in finance is that physical groups of traders, advisors and analysts are prone to groupthink, a liability right now. A calm leader should still be able to enforce policy remotely.
By himself he doesn't even have that reassurance. He doesn't have anything to measure his emotions against. Does that make sense?
Lately I've been thinking about all of the "F.I.R.E." and "Boglehead" blogs and forums that have proliferated over the past 5-10 years. What percentage of those people are panicking over their plunging index funds vs. those who are ignoring the day-to-day chaos?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What were their sources? My experience in finance is that physical groups of traders, advisors and analysts are prone to groupthink, a liability right now. A calm leader should still be able to enforce policy remotely.
Let's suppose: what you say is true and they're like sheep. A guy in a group panicking has the rest of them to, kind of, validate his emotion. He might be panicking but he knows where he stands. By himself he doesn't even have that reassurance. He doesn't have anything to measure his emotions against. Does that make sense?
And yet, if every investment (including cash, because there is a near-certainty of the government turning to inflation to solve all these problems) is crashing, then isn't it the case that nothing is crashing?
I wonder - it seems like a hyperinflation spiral would actually benefit people who had, say, 30-year mortgages (not that I want that to happen).
Nobody is actually planning on printing quadrillions and quintillions of dollars, so hyperinflation is a moot point.
No access to article, but an entire generation of money managers have grown up with the Everything Bubble starting in 2009, fueled by Fed largesse. They've never even seen a bear market, let alone a financial panic. Most have completely ignored the alarming rise in valuations and market distortions, engaging in extremely risky behavior for years on end.
If one thing good comes out of this crisis, it might be an end to this widely held belief that the stock market is some magical "risk-free 7% return forever" investment.
I'm a lot more concerned about people's health and well-being. Once the health crisis passes, the rest will probably take care of itself.
Health includes some component of hope and perception of security. It’s not clear to me that a person living check-to-check in a rented property with no stable income can remain healthy without economic stability. For better or worse, Wall Street news pervades our perception of whether times are good or bad.
This narrative is aggressively pushed and everyone from the president to folks on Wall Street think that market health is everything to everyone, but people with no skin in the game really don't care. A lot of Americans have no idea what a DOW even is and only know the stock market as "that place where folks gamble". Additionally those folks with mutual funds are mostly ignorant to the market as well - only those really close to end of life and suffering a financial crisis really need to evaluate how much money they may be able to draw out quickly.
And yet, if every investment (including cash, because there is a near-certainty of the government turning to inflation to solve all these problems) is crashing, then isn't it the case that nothing is crashing?
Lately I've been thinking about all of the "F.I.R.E." and "Boglehead" blogs and forums that have proliferated over the past 5-10 years. What percentage of those people are panicking over their plunging index funds vs. those who are ignoring the day-to-day chaos?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder - it seems like a hyperinflation spiral would actually benefit people who had, say, 30-year mortgages (not that I want that to happen).
Unless we print quadrillions and quintillions of dollars, we are not going to see hyperinflation. Nobody is actually planning on printing quadrillions and quintillions of dollars, so hyperinflation is a moot point.