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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Discipline
https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Discipline-Practice-Learning-Or...
Here's an old Flash game that you can play to see how it works: https://forio.com/simulate/mbean/near-beer-game/run/
I played this game during orientation when I started my MBA at MIT Sloan (the game was originated at Sloan). In my second year, I facilitated the game. The most eye-opening thing for me was that a good quarter of students were frustrated and surprised by the bullwhip effect. I'd guess the general population would be even less understanding of a bullwhip effect. I think that help explains why it seems so many people d…
Sure, I’ll just work a few extra hours to grow the crop of plants we extract this drug from.
Or build some more vats that we brew this drug in.
Even when no communication is allowed during the game, some kind of PID control could make the supply chain stable.
It's funny you should mention that, because most PID configurations are not very stable. Once you introduce the Integral and the Derivative, if you're not careful that PID will oscillate into the stratosphere. In fact, I'd say that PID's that are functioning most efficiently are very nearly tuned to the point of oscillating. Even worse is the kinds of adjustments you have to make to PID's when there is significant la…
You can extract more performance out of a system by having a very good predictive model of it and measuring its inputs: This can really improve how you drive the system but it's much more difficult to achieve, and you're still limited by how quickly information moves through the system in terms of how you can react.
I’ve never understood how you win the beer distribution game, people only ever talk about the effects on the supply chain it seems. But how do you mitigate?
1. Push all the inventory to the end of the supply chain (the retailer).
2. Run the inside of the supply chain on a "pass-through" strategy - order exactly what is known to be coming down the supply chain on that turn.
3. Use a control algorithm based on the outflows from the retailer to control production at the factory (the factory player has to watch the retailer's inventory closely). The best parameters for the control system depend on the exact demand deck.
I’ve never understood how you win the beer distribution game, people only ever talk about the effects on the supply chain it seems. But how do you mitigate?
I wrote a paper on what we thought was the optimal strategy for the beer game. My team won a beer game session run at the system dynamics society conference about 10 years ago. 1. Push all the inventory to the end of the supply chain (the retailer). 2. Run the inside of the supply chain on a "pass-through" strategy - order exactly what is known to be coming down the supply chain on that turn. 3. Use a control algorit…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's funny you should mention that, because most PID configurations are not very stable. Once you introduce the Integral and the Derivative, if you're not careful that PID will oscillate into the stratosphere. In fact, I'd say that PID's that are functioning most efficiently are very nearly tuned to the point of oscillating. Even worse is the kinds of adjustments you have to make to PID's when there is significant la…
Indeed. Control loops are generally limited by the bandwidth of the system they are controlling, and lag in the system limits the bandwidth you can achieve. Trying to get a PID loop to move a system faster than that system's bandwidth will just create oscillations, and the more tightly the PID is tuned the worse its behaviour when exposed to shocks (especially when the system becomes significantly non-linear in the p…
I played this game during orientation when I started my MBA at MIT Sloan (the game was originated at Sloan). In my second year, I facilitated the game. The most eye-opening thing for me was that a good quarter of students were frustrated and surprised by the bullwhip effect. I'd guess the general population would be even less understanding of a bullwhip effect. I think that help explains why it seems so many people d…
This doesn't actually demonstrate that it's difficult, just that it's expensive . If the government is willing to eat any sunk cost from oversupply, everything becomes predictable. In the case of COVID, it's hard to imagine any quantity of hand sanitizer and respirators doing more damage than the harm they prevent.
Production hand sanitizer and masks and such is being ramped up, now that Chinese factories are slowly going back online. Things like that take some time, so.
I played this game during orientation when I started my MBA at MIT Sloan (the game was originated at Sloan). In my second year, I facilitated the game. The most eye-opening thing for me was that a good quarter of students were frustrated and surprised by the bullwhip effect. I'd guess the general population would be even less understanding of a bullwhip effect. I think that help explains why it seems so many people d…
This doesn't actually demonstrate that it's difficult, just that it's expensive . If the government is willing to eat any sunk cost from oversupply, everything becomes predictable. In the case of COVID, it's hard to imagine any quantity of hand sanitizer and respirators doing more damage than the harm they prevent.
you deal those with scenario planning, which might be the sole responsibility of pandemic unit. We use casual loop diagrams to understand effects when math cant be drawn out on abstract problems.
Its insanely expensive to satisfy 99% populations requirement versus 95% of populations requirement but when that happens and if the consequence are severe we manage those supply chains with redundancy and the costs are absorbed with other players. Sure, it would profitable to operate without this but my understanding is when this sh*t hits everything falls.
$15 billion savings in 2018 resulted in $12 trillion being wiped out in two weeks.
>https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump...
>https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market...