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Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

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Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#21

Post by jobigoud »

alexanderhorl wrote: post #13
perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.

It does. They are saying it won't continue at this rate for 15 weeks.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#22

Post by sbmthakur »

op03 wrote: post #18
ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

Where its hot and humid and positive cases are still showing up look at travel link density with China.

I guess this factor is not studied enough. Italy had significant presence of Chinese workers due to them being part of BRI.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#24

Post by jwilk »

op03 wrote: post #17
alexanderhorl wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.

Also not taking into account in many parts of the world there is no such thing as Flu Season. And no one knows why.

Could you elaborate on that? Which parts?

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#25

Post by collyw »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9
rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

I am in Catalunya in Spain its humid here, (not quite hot at this time of year) and we have plenty of cases.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#26

Post by mvanaltvorst »

perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#27

Post by jgalt212 »

mvanaltvorst wrote: post #26
perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.

Tell that to the "shutdown the world people". The entire basis of this response is the exponential function.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#28

Post by eatmyshorts »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9
rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

As I understand it, hotter weather helps to prevent the progression of the disease from the upper respiratory to the lower respiratory. When the disease moves to the lower respiratory area, patients typically need hospitalization and a ventilator, and are at a much higher risk of death. If you look at the death rates in Brazil and Australia, they are lower than in the northern hemisphere. Likewise, countries with ample spare ICU beds and ventilators (like Germany) have lower death rates than countries that don't (like Italy).

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#29

Post by hello_1234 »

MR4D wrote: post #14

Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right? I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.

I think we should encourage people to turn off their Air Conditioners, especially in indoor places like malls and bars where people gather. ACs reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for the virus.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#30

Post by hello_1234 »

rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Do people in Brazil and Australia use Air Conditioners? Air Conditioners reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for COVID-19 transmission. The use of Air Conditioners in very low in India because only the richest can afford them.
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