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The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

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Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#21

Post by acqq »

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #11
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes - absolute criminal negligence in the US and UK. Possibly Australia too. The problem isn't just that a lot of people will die because the health system is swamped. That's hardly good news, but when you have a high peak you have a lot of people ill at the same time. And that means you run the risk of losing a significant percentage of critical workers in essential services including food, utilities, logistics, and…

Original poster. I'm from the UK. Looking at the curves only and leaving out politics completely, the UK curve is by far the slowest growing of the 3, for whatever reason. It's the US that has the most to fear at this point, of the 3 countries.

UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the growth characteristic remained the same across the countries with different policies, and it can be observed, from China and Italy, how long it takes for any policy to decrease the growth. Then check and compare the Italian measures with the UK for your estimate when the UK curve will flatten in the weeks that follow. When the flattening will start will indeed make a huge difference in the direct impact of the virus (the number of ill and dead) between the countries, due to the growth characteristics being what they are. Also see my other posts.

The number of "cases" reflects at the moment the capabilities of the whole medical system in each country (it's dependent on who is selected to be tested at all) and the tests used. The number of deaths hides less. Also, even if the specific numbers can't be compared 1 to 1 across the countries, the characteristics of the curves can.

The growth is fast but it is comparable, and the measures take time to affect it.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#22

Post by simonh »

hallohallohallo wrote: post #20
simonh wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is key. We really can't compare countries confirmed case numbers directly because they are operating very different testing programmes. Just look at Germany. More confirmed cases than the USA, but a quarter of the deaths. Germany also has 80% as many cases as Spain, but about 5% as many deaths. All that, without a severe lockdown. Clearly something completely different is going on there than in many other countr…

It is the health care system like number of ICUs, training of doctors and stuff like not being able to get antibiotics simply over the counter like in Italy. If my memory serves me right e.g. in Italy 29% have a resistance to antibiotics, in Germany only 0.4%.

People don't become resistant to antibiotics, bacteria do and resistant bacteria in Italy would just spread to Germany. Anyway Covid-19 is a virus, not a bacterium.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#23

Post by vinniejames »

simonh wrote: post #13
Wowfunhappy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how much of the US’s growth is due to us finally having some (albeit not enough) testing?

This is key. We really can't compare countries confirmed case numbers directly because they are operating very different testing programmes. Just look at Germany. More confirmed cases than the USA, but a quarter of the deaths. Germany also has 80% as many cases as Spain, but about 5% as many deaths. All that, without a severe lockdown. Clearly something completely different is going on there than in many other countr…

We could possibly clean up the numbers, assuming the death rate is predictable across regions.

Take numbers from a region where testing is frequent, say the death rate is 2%. Then scale the numbers in a region with lack of testing to match the 2% death rate.

Not perfect, as there are external factors like hospital capacity/quality and existing population health.

However, it should give a closer approximation of total cases where politicians fail to provide adequate testing.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#26

Post by emmelaich »

Wowfunhappy wrote: post #5
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #3

This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…

But how much of the US’s growth is due to us finally having some (albeit not enough) testing?

Related, there's also the distinct possibility that many had Covid-19 well before it was in public consciousness.

Look for ILI (Influenza-like Illness) stats which were appreciably higher in January. The obvious inference is that many had Covid-19 before it was recognised as such.

This might be a good thing.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#27

Post by notahacker »

cowsandmilk wrote: post #17
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #3

This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…

> the USA curve is fearsomely steep This analysis is difficult because it is related to testing capacity. We all know testing capacity was limited early on. It remains limited, but is growing. The faster capacity grows, the steeper the curve will be. Want to have a less steep curve? Lower the amount of testing. In another comment, you claim looking at the curves leaves out politics completely, but it doesn't. Any pol…

Yep. Ventilator usage [if available] and deaths are more reliable indicators, but they're also lagging ones [and even deaths aren't entirely consistently measured since many of the most severely affected patients exhibit comorbities, and many nations don't test the dead]

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#28

Post by kire2345 »

simonh wrote: post #13
Wowfunhappy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how much of the US’s growth is due to us finally having some (albeit not enough) testing?

This is key. We really can't compare countries confirmed case numbers directly because they are operating very different testing programmes. Just look at Germany. More confirmed cases than the USA, but a quarter of the deaths. Germany also has 80% as many cases as Spain, but about 5% as many deaths. All that, without a severe lockdown. Clearly something completely different is going on there than in many other countr…

I think what is going on is a combination of relatively good testing capacity from the beginning and mostly young people infected, which due to the testing were prevented from spreading it to older demographics. See https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823...

Also there is the purely anecdotal hypothesis of a cultural difference between for example Italy, Spain and Germany. In the southern countries it seems like older people have quite an active social life compared to Germany.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#29

Post by tobltobs »

cowsandmilk wrote: post #17
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #3

This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…

> the USA curve is fearsomely steep This analysis is difficult because it is related to testing capacity. We all know testing capacity was limited early on. It remains limited, but is growing. The faster capacity grows, the steeper the curve will be. Want to have a less steep curve? Lower the amount of testing. In another comment, you claim looking at the curves leaves out politics completely, but it doesn't. Any pol…

> Want to have a less steep curve? Lower the amount of testing.

That works only at the beginning.

Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

#30

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #3

This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…

> if I'm right the US is going to be reeling in just a few day.

considering how the UK handles the crisis it won't be far behind the US either.

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