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New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

directorsblog.nih.gov

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Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#21

Post by dorfsmay »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Is there a test, or, what are the chances that there will be a test, to check if somebody already had covid19?

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#22

Post by scott_s »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely:

> Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier. I suspect there's a lot more evidence that rules out the "fast and stealthy" hypothesis.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#23

Post by _jal »

duxup wrote: post #10
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

>There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. Is that really the case? I'm finding it to be pretty common knowledge that "confirmed cases" is simply just that.

If conversations with my family are any indication, yes. People see low-looking numbers and place names of faraway cities in headlines and think it isn't serious.

After making them think about incubation times that starts changing, but it takes a conversation.

What is common knowledge depends very much on who you're common with.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#24

Post by addisonl »

scott_s wrote: post #22
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

SK is the exception.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#25

Post by psychlops »

Given the ongoing statistics coming out of South Korea (which I'd suggest are the most accurate) where only one person under 50 has died. It seems that these safeguards would be best spent around those aged 60+ and perhaps those 50+ with other health issues.

Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#26

Post by tejohnso »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

> By the time I am able to get tested it seems likely that I won't be shedding the virus any longer, and will test negative.

Shouldn't the test detect antibodies that your immune system has developed?

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#27

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

krzat wrote: post #18
anon102010 wrote: post #8

Fascinating that they recommend you take OFF masks while on things like crowded BART trains and airports (I had lots leftover from forest fires) if you are "healthy", even though that might mean you are asymptomatic, or not yet diagnosed etc. Despite claims masks (with good adherence to wearing) are highly effective - primarily by reducing hand to mouth/nose contact, secondarily as a direct barrier. And surgical mask…

Really? Where do they recommend this? Sounds insane. Czech Republic recently started requiring face covers so we will have results in few weeks.

I second that request for a source. It sounds like disinformation to make people upset.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#28

Post by sojournerc »

scott_s wrote: post #22
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

If the people who recover after mild/minimal symptoms do so within <5days (hypothetically), but people who have severe cases take 10 days to get severe, wouldn't that account for "would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea"?

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#29

Post by tomerico »

scott_s wrote: post #22
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

The type of testing S Korea does require the Virus to be present in the body and only work in a certain window of time. Once a Serological survey is done, we’ll know the true extant.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#30

Post by thu2111 »

scott_s wrote: post #22
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about

That's a very strong claim. SK has done a lot of testing relative to most places but it's still:

a) A tiny amount relative to the population

b) Not a random sample of the population

Their tests were done at testing clinics that people had to take themselves to, which in many cases had large queues and generally you'd only go there if you actually felt really sick because otherwise why would you expose yourself to lots of probably really sick and infectious people?

So far there's overwhelming evidence that either a lot of people have the disease without symptoms, or the tests have a very high FP rate. There's also a lot of people writing like the person above, who are sure they've had the disease based on symptoms but were never tested. South Korea wasn't deploying their tests on people who were asymptomatic, they are doing the same as everyone else: testing people who present for testing or who otherwise seem to need it.

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