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South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

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Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#21
What strikes me is how hard it is to get reliable information on what exactly is being done in specific countries.

In particular: did South Korea shut down its schools?

There is "information" everywhere but no precise or exhaustive data on who did what.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#22
post #9

The US can't follow the South Korean model because the US does not have the testing infrastructure for it: https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-co... This article presents it as dueling narratives: open versus authoritarian. This implies that, as of now, the US has some choice. But we don't. We screwed up testing when it was small and containable, and now it's not.

I think the idea is that if we go in lock-down for 2 weeks, infections can get back to a manageable level - and then we can open up by testing like mad.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#24
post #13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large number of available and accurate tests definitely mattered. But that is not merely enough, someone had to make decisions and coordinate the efforts. I have no idea who that was, but they did a great job.

And they have to do it EARLY. It is useless to compare or even worse suggest these solutions now.

EARLY is key. Experimenting theories in a scenario like is so risky - difficult to understand why the UK went that way.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#25

They are coming back again ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore... ). Numbers are lagging indicators, and the virus grows exponentially. They are going to go up again

The active-case count is flat or perhaps beginning to fall.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#26
post #22
post #9

The US can't follow the South Korean model because the US does not have the testing infrastructure for it: https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-co... This article presents it as dueling narratives: open versus authoritarian. This implies that, as of now, the US has some choice. But we don't. We screwed up testing when it was small and containable, and now it's not.

I think the idea is that if we go in lock-down for 2 weeks, infections can get back to a manageable level - and then we can open up by testing like mad.

Two weeks isn't nearly enough, and nobody is on true lockdown yet. Two weeks from now people are going to be questioning why we did the lockdowns, because they will appear to have had no impact at all.

The general public still doesn't realize that it's going to be two months before the shelter in place and general social distancing rules start to make a difference.

Even then, after months of lockdown, it's just going to flare up again as soon as the rules are relaxed.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#27

On a sort of related note, I presented this as an "Ask HN": Why don't [iWatch, Garmin, Fitbit] wearables have a thermometers? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22581703 I know "core temperature" is hard to take at the wrist, but I'm sure _something_ could be done. Wouldn't this benefit entire nations if the technology could be invented to have hyper-local influenza and pandemic forecasting?

My Garmin has a thermometer, but its purpose is to track barometric pressure. It doesn't accurately reflect my body temperature. When I go running below freezing, it usually drops down to around ~2* C. It may accurately reflect the temperature of the skin on my wrist but it's useless for telling me that I have a fever.

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#28
post #8
post #4

I heard that South Korea had/has a very large supply of very accurate coronavirus tests. Probably lots of testing is also why their death rates are low (not only hospitalizable cases are counted). Maybe a significant motivator in these decisions is whether or not you can test a lot of people?

A large number of available and accurate tests definitely mattered. But that is not merely enough, someone had to make decisions and coordinate the efforts. I have no idea who that was, but they did a great job.

they weren't only testing everybody on a massive scale, they also assigned a team of like 5 people for every positive case to trace everyone they could have come in contact with

Re: South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates Are Falling

#30

But didn't South Korea too have aggressive location tracking and even made those details public? Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y So not exactly CCP style lockdown but not a 2019 style free society either. They did make the hard choices necessary to got it in control. But it wasn't as simple as more testing.

Italy has already started doing something similar with cell-tower data for people located in Lombardy. There's this article in Italian from a few hours ago [1] with the president of the Lombardy region saying that more than 40% of the population (I guess that from the region as a whole, or only from Milano, I'm not so sure yet) had walked/moved for more than 300 meters outside their place of residence in the last 24 hours, all this information supposedly based on that cell-tower data I mentioned earlier.

[1] https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/18/news/coronav...

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