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Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

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Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#21

Post by starpilot »

avmich wrote: post #16
starpilot wrote: post #11

Blue Origin was founded two years before SpaceX. Knowing only what was public around that time, would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? SpaceX seemed riskier, Musk was all-in and he had a string of spectacular launch failures. BO had the Amazon warchest at its disposal, SpaceX just Musk's personal funds. Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues.

> would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? I'd say both have good chances. I'm actually surprised BO doesn't have better achievements by now. > Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues. I assume some aerospace professionals still consider them jokes, which weights on definition of professional. But SpaceX really does things differently - the pioneers of space era (like von Br…

One thing stands out is how hands-on Musk has been. He's got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering. From his public statements, he shows an understanding of mechanical engineering WAY beyond most executives'. Bezos has been hands-off with BO and is not technical. Similar with Vern Raburn (Microsoftie pilot) trying to run Eclipse Aviation (nearly into the ground, as it was).

The problem is finding someone who understands the science enough, but is not embedded in the old school culture that has been so limiting.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#22

Post by nickik »

fit2rule wrote: post #19

I'm kind of more interested in the political system that the first Martian base-camp will adhere to .. and how it will be organised at a socio-economic level - are the first Martians going to have economy based on Access to Earth, etc? I know its at least 20 - 50 years away from being any kind of reality, but surely there are smart people working on this problem. What's to stop Elons' Martian crew from mutiny and sed…

F.A. Hayek always talked about local knowledge, and he picked up the idea of tacid knowledge from Polanyi.

I think the specific conditions we will face in a second phase of mars expansion, are gone be limited and determined by local condition at that point in time.

I think its a total fools ear fool's errandnd to try to reason this out in a theoretical setting such a long time ahead.

Looking at research from Elenor Ostrom it seems pretty evident that a group of people with local knowledge can far easier and more efficiently solve most common resource problems then remote governments or cooperation can. And the same will very much be true on Mars.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#23

Post by nickik »

starpilot wrote: post #21
avmich wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? I'd say both have good chances. I'm actually surprised BO doesn't have better achievements by now. > Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues. I assume some aerospace professionals still consider them jokes, which weights on definition of professional. But SpaceX really does things differently - the pioneers of space era (like von Br…

One thing stands out is how hands-on Musk has been. He's got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering. From his public statements, he shows an understanding of mechanical engineering WAY beyond most executives'. Bezos has been hands-off with BO and is not technical. Similar with Vern Raburn (Microsoftie pilot) trying to run Eclipse Aviation (nearly into the ground,…

People are still slipping on Elon and how brilliant he is.

He is legit the chief designer of the Falcon 9 rocket and of Starship not just the chief executive. That is not just some honorary title. He made every important choice on every important technical decision.

He knows every detail of these rockets, he knows them inside and out. Nobody knows more about any of these rockets then Elon.

People sometimes want to portray him about a guy that highers smart people and that it, but it is far from true.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#24

Post by nickik »

_zamorano_ wrote: post #18
api wrote: post #4

Whenever I hear someone like Andreessen who is still a cryptocurrency believer, I go and really look for what he's talking about. I find nothing. I also have a routine search that I do when I look for something built on cryptocurrency or the cryptocurrency ecosystem (e.g. Ethereum "dapps") that I might want to actually use. I always come up empty handed. Yet there are many smart people that believe in this stuff. Are…

Shouldn't the blockchain be the best approach to handle public goverment data? I mean, project requirements to build infrastructures, for the private sector companies to bid. The results of those adjudications. Civil servants payroll and bonuses... That would mean no suspicios document shredding when a new party enters the goverment. An open standard way for everybody to access the data. Even different applications o…

All of these things could already be improved by 1000% if the government wanted to. Its not a lack of tools, but a lack of will.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#25

Post by felipeko »

api wrote: post #7
aguyfromnb wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're hoping more will buy in so they can dump at a higher price. We're seeing, right in this moment, why the ability to increase the supply of currency is a necessity for a functioning economy, especially in times of crisis. Somehow the hodlers take the exact opposite lesson from what's happening.

You're referring to what I call "pop Austrianism," and that's definitely an adjacent issue. Austrianism is a rationalistic theory of economics. By rationalistic in this context I mean it's not empirical. It's the sort of thing you get when smart people sit around and reason through something and come to a conclusion based on that alone without bothering to observe, experiment, or evaluate their ideas in practice. A w…

I may be way of my field here, but my understanding is that the whole point of the Austrian school is that human behavior is (purposeful, but) unpredictable.

This is a testable claim, and you can bother to observe, experiment and test this claim. Austrians should accept they are wrong if you can empirically prove that humans behavior is predictable.

But if this claim is correct, there's no reason for you to do empirical economic observations to prove or disprove economic laws. Any empirical conclusion will have no predictive power as a law, only as a trend.

Not only that, but any logical consequence of human behavior being purposeful and unpredictable is as correct as the original claim.

Is anything here that I am missing?

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#26

Post by nikofeyn »

starpilot wrote: post #21
avmich wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? I'd say both have good chances. I'm actually surprised BO doesn't have better achievements by now. > Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues. I assume some aerospace professionals still consider them jokes, which weights on definition of professional. But SpaceX really does things differently - the pioneers of space era (like von Br…

One thing stands out is how hands-on Musk has been. He's got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering. From his public statements, he shows an understanding of mechanical engineering WAY beyond most executives'. Bezos has been hands-off with BO and is not technical. Similar with Vern Raburn (Microsoftie pilot) trying to run Eclipse Aviation (nearly into the ground,…

> He's [Musk] got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering.

musk was nearly laughed out of early meetings because he basically knew nothing about aerospace engineering and was viewed as just a guy with a lot of money, enthusiasm, and naivety.

i have never seen any indication that he understands as much as people freely give him credit for.

> Bezos ... is not technical.

bezos has a degree in electrical engineering and computer science from princeton. not sure what you consider technical.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#27

Post by nikofeyn »

nickik wrote: post #23
starpilot wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing stands out is how hands-on Musk has been. He's got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering. From his public statements, he shows an understanding of mechanical engineering WAY beyond most executives'. Bezos has been hands-off with BO and is not technical. Similar with Vern Raburn (Microsoftie pilot) trying to run Eclipse Aviation (nearly into the ground,…

People are still slipping on Elon and how brilliant he is. He is legit the chief designer of the Falcon 9 rocket and of Starship not just the chief executive. That is not just some honorary title. He made every important choice on every important technical decision. He knows every detail of these rockets, he knows them inside and out. Nobody knows more about any of these rockets then Elon. People sometimes want to po…

would you mind pointing out some resources that back up your claims? they read like fiction.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#28

Post by phkahler »

>> Those companies have to be run completely differently because the stakes are so much higher.

I can't dismiss Elons drive, ability to get his hands dirty, and many other characteristics. But the primary difference I see in this comparison is simply risk aversion. YC and their VCs are in it to make money by placing a number of small bets, knowing some will be losers. To go big like SpaceX requires you to be all in. Elon nearly went broke a couple times. He's willing to take that risk because he's in it for the results, not the money.

I used to wonder if it was just hype for employees and investors to say that SpaceX goal was to make humanity multi planetary. The last couple years have convinced me he's for real. The man could retire now. SpaceX could just own the launch industry by cutting cost for a while, or sit back and enjoy higher profits from reusability. But starship and mass production of it? Nonsense unless the stated mission is for real.

People can do so much more if it's about the mission and not the money, and that includes investors.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#29

Post by jobu »

starpilot wrote: post #21
avmich wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? I'd say both have good chances. I'm actually surprised BO doesn't have better achievements by now. > Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues. I assume some aerospace professionals still consider them jokes, which weights on definition of professional. But SpaceX really does things differently - the pioneers of space era (like von Br…

One thing stands out is how hands-on Musk has been. He's got a physics degree and has the raw intelligence and passion to understand aerospace engineering. From his public statements, he shows an understanding of mechanical engineering WAY beyond most executives'. Bezos has been hands-off with BO and is not technical. Similar with Vern Raburn (Microsoftie pilot) trying to run Eclipse Aviation (nearly into the ground,…

The big difference I see is vision and timelines.

Elon Musk wants to live on Mars and he's been very public about it. Everything he's done has been to further technology to make that possible within his lifetime. He's working hard and betting everything to make it happen.

Jeff Bezos is working to build a "road to space", but he doesn't see the technology for space or planetary colonization being viable for a few generations.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#30

Post by usrusr »

fit2rule wrote: post #19

I'm kind of more interested in the political system that the first Martian base-camp will adhere to .. and how it will be organised at a socio-economic level - are the first Martians going to have economy based on Access to Earth, etc? I know its at least 20 - 50 years away from being any kind of reality, but surely there are smart people working on this problem. What's to stop Elons' Martian crew from mutiny and sed…

Company town. What else could it be?

Whatever you do, you will never be more than a subcontractor.

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