Italy to close all stores apart from food shops and pharmacies

Post by bpodgursky » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

dugditches wrote: post #9

bpodgursky wrote: post #3

It's funny how the only global crisis deemed worth shutting down society over is the one that impacts 65+ year olds. Global warming, pension underfunding, unsustainable healthcare, and education costs don't count, because the crisis is 15 years away (eg after they die). Crippling the global economy (and shutting down schools!!!) to stop COVID-19 hurts the future of 15-35 year olds the worst. But any reform is STILL g…

So shutting down the schools to stop the spread, so children don't spread it to their older family members will hurt youth the worst? A lot of issues with shutting down schools is in regards to childcare and food(meal programs) in the United States. Not their 'futures'.

Post by cameldrv » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

tathougies wrote: post #10

bpodgursky wrote: post #3

It's funny how the only global crisis deemed worth shutting down society over is the one that impacts 65+ year olds. Global warming, pension underfunding, unsustainable healthcare, and education costs don't count, because the crisis is 15 years away (eg after they die). Crippling the global economy (and shutting down schools!!!) to stop COVID-19 hurts the future of 15-35 year olds the worst. But any reform is STILL g…

> $0 fixing the the damage to Gen Z, whose education and job prospects were delayed by (potentially) years, depending on whether we get sent into a recession. I mean Gen Z and younger millenials are in for the biggest and easiest opportunity to get rich in our lifetimes. A combination of low interest rates, and then high market supply when a lot of old people die leaving their houses vacant, means a reduction in pric…

Post by phreeza » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

chupa-chups wrote: post #8

comboy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand it. Your refrigerator breaks, something goes wrong with your sink, how forcing shops to close is helping? I could understand maybe shops that are selling clothes, but so many things depend on each other. You need working appliances to be able to cook for yourself and keep proper hygiene.

If you can decrease the spread factor (R0) by 0.1, you're going to help a lot of people. t^(r0-0.1) is a lot less over time than t^(r0). That's averaged, of course. If your refrigerator breaks, your individual value will increase. But as a whole, it will still decrease.

Post by chupa-chups » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

phreeza wrote: post #26

chupa-chups wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can decrease the spread factor (R0) by 0.1, you're going to help a lot of people. t^(r0-0.1) is a lot less over time than t^(r0). That's averaged, of course. If your refrigerator breaks, your individual value will increase. But as a whole, it will still decrease.

In the SIR model, a factor 1-1/R0 of the total population end up being infected over time. That means with a reduction of 0.1, you will prevent about 0.1/R0^2 from ever being infected, so something like 2%. Of course there are other effects like less load on the hospitals.

Post by bpodgursky » Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 9:43 PM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #25

bpodgursky wrote: post #3

It's funny how the only global crisis deemed worth shutting down society over is the one that impacts 65+ year olds. Global warming, pension underfunding, unsustainable healthcare, and education costs don't count, because the crisis is 15 years away (eg after they die). Crippling the global economy (and shutting down schools!!!) to stop COVID-19 hurts the future of 15-35 year olds the worst. But any reform is STILL g…

Do you think the response would be any different if this disease primarily affected younger people instead? I could imagine even more aggressive measures in that case.