Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not advice. It's an opinion piece.
The piece does contain one bit of advice, "young healthy people should try to avoid getting Covid-19 for as long as possible."
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The Virus
21–30 of 31 posts
Re: The Virus
#22If too many people get this simultaneously we will overwhelm the healthcare system and this will switch from tragedy to horror. Everyone please do everything you can to avoid catching and spreading this until we have enough testing to track this and respond effectively.
While simple actions o prevent spread are probably not unreasonable (why aren't we doing these every flu season)? I think the scale of horror is grossly misperceived. For example, It's most likely that the scale of death from covid-19 will be at least one, if not two orders of magnitude lower than annual vehicular deaths in the us.
If this spreads widely enough and quickly enough the numbers we have point to a death rate that isn't even in the same ballpark as traffic fatalities. There are 7 billion people on this planet and none of them have immunity to this.
Re: The Virus
#23> Although I still hope things will go differently, the experts I’ve spoken to think we are likely to face a global tragedy—hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid-19. Even if it’s Sam Altman writing this, I wish he were more scientific instead of appealing to an anonymous authority.
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Re: The Virus
#24A few things to consider:
- What is the chance that we develop an effective vaccine in say 6 months? In 18 months? (I'd love to see this question tackled by the Good Judgement project [1])
- Singapore appears to be doing a good job of controlling the spread of the virus. Perhaps they will soon require all travellers to provide documentation of a negative covid19 test result before entry to Singapore?
- How many fewer flu deaths will result from changes to travel and hygiene?
Re: The Virus
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
For everyone else, this is pegging Covid-19 deaths to ~36,000 [0] (was curious) [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
More like 360-3600 (dnautics said 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than vehicle deaths).
...and there are 3500 recorded deaths so far from COVID-19, so we've very likely already exceeded this estimate as of March 7, 2020.
Re: The Virus
#26> I expect society will shift to a new normal pretty fast. Some of these elements—e.g., much less business travel, much less handshaking, much more handwashing—I expect to just stick. Some others—e.g., people working from home all of the time—I expect to not stick. Why would people working from home not stick? Of all the enumerated changes, this one seems like the most likely to stick. At least for any worker that ha…
> Why would people working from home not stick?
The assumption behind it sticking seems to be that WFH is so obviously better if you just try it you'll be convinced. While I think there's some truth to that (=people objecting to it without actual experience), many companies are going to jump into large-scale WFH badly prepared now, so it could pan out either way. Turning a company remote is a culture shift.
Re: The Virus
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
More like 360-3600 (dnautics said 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than vehicle deaths).
...and there are 3500 recorded deaths so far from COVID-19, so we've very likely already exceeded this estimate as of March 7, 2020.
I think dnautics was just talking about the US, so there are only 19 deaths so far.
Re: The Virus
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
More like 360-3600 (dnautics said 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than vehicle deaths).
...and there are 3500 recorded deaths so far from COVID-19, so we've very likely already exceeded this estimate as of March 7, 2020.
Please don't mix national and worldwide numbers: WHO estimates 1,350,000 traffic related death worldwide [1]. That said, every single loss of life is a tragedy by itself.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
Re: The Virus
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
While simple actions o prevent spread are probably not unreasonable (why aren't we doing these every flu season)? I think the scale of horror is grossly misperceived. For example, It's most likely that the scale of death from covid-19 will be at least one, if not two orders of magnitude lower than annual vehicular deaths in the us.
There are only 37,000 motor vehicle fatalities/yr in the US. Care to show your work, because my numbers come out in the millions on our current no-mitigation, pretend-it-will-go-away trajectory.
If your estimate is in the millions... I'm happy to bet you a thousand dollars that in the US deaths don't go more than 50k, ten thousand dollars it doesn't go more than 500k, to be settled at the close of 2020.
Re: The Virus
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are only 37,000 motor vehicle fatalities/yr in the US. Care to show your work, because my numbers come out in the millions on our current no-mitigation, pretend-it-will-go-away trajectory.
If your estimate is in the millions... I'm happy to bet you a thousand dollars that in the US deaths don't go more than 50k, ten thousand dollars it doesn't go more than 500k, to be settled at the close of 2020.
I have fairly low confidence in the high end numbers, because there's a chance the US would "wake up." Your low number bet seems like a layup! There is something appalling about "rooting" for death that doesn't sit well with my values though.
All that said, I still mostly want to see your work. This isn't my specialty, and if you have well thought out optimistic numbers they would make me and a lot of people feel better--they would relieve a lot of anxiety.