Perhaps they’re behaving entirely rationally. Infectious diseases do not kill that many people compared to cancer in America. We may have a bad “flu” year this year, with a spike of elderly deaths, but we have a bad cancer year every year.
Perhaps what's "rational" in a purely economic sense isn't whats best for the nation or for society. In an economic sense, you could make an argument that slavery is "rational" as far as profits for slaveholders are concerned, but we don't allow slavery because its wrong and immoral despite the potential economic benefits to certain vested interests. Similarly, perhaps its time that we as a society reevaluated our re…
With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
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Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
But we don't really develop "cancer" drugs. We develop a drug that treats certain type of pancreatic cancer that give the individuals another 3-6 months to live. But curing an infectious disease can give someone another 40 years.
There are several cancer (lymphomas) that were literal death sentences a decade or two ago, but how have a very high cure rate. It's not fair to say we don't develop cancer drugs because some, very difficult to treat cancers, haven't seen as much progress as others.
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#23Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Great, here is $500M as long as you agree to produce as much drug as needed for free or some nominal cost Why not give $5bn (or whatever the NPV of the drug at a reasonable rate of return might be) in exchange for releasing the drug into the public domain? Then any number of generics manufacturers could be contracted to maintain a stockpile.
Sure you could do that, but manufacturing drugs isn't as simple as hitting a switch - the infrastructure needed along with the scientific expertise is sometimes hard to replicate.
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Artificially distributed? It's no different than paying a drug maker a ton of money to make the drugs and stockpile them. And at any rate, the alternative is what we have now - no drugs to treat these diseases.
I wasn't using the word "artificial" in a negative sense; I was pointing out that this is a narrow example of socialized healthcare and why it's beneficial.
As an aside, the "netflix model" for drug payments is already a reality in Louisiana. Basically the drug maker and state government negotiated a payment for enough hepatitis C drugs to cure everyone in the state.[1]
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#26Perhaps they’re behaving entirely rationally. Infectious diseases do not kill that many people compared to cancer in America. We may have a bad “flu” year this year, with a spike of elderly deaths, but we have a bad cancer year every year.
But we don't really develop "cancer" drugs. We develop a drug that treats certain type of pancreatic cancer that give the individuals another 3-6 months to live. But curing an infectious disease can give someone another 40 years.
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps what's "rational" in a purely economic sense isn't whats best for the nation or for society. In an economic sense, you could make an argument that slavery is "rational" as far as profits for slaveholders are concerned, but we don't allow slavery because its wrong and immoral despite the potential economic benefits to certain vested interests. Similarly, perhaps its time that we as a society reevaluated our re…
Slavery, really? Besides, totally beside the point. The argument for rationality isn't that if we exclude the people who experience downside, maybe it's a net positive (always true by tautology), but rather that maybe even counting the people who experience the downsides it's still rational. The novel coronavirus is likely to end the lives of a lot of elderly people, but the majority of elderly people are going to ha…
And you can construct a "rational" argument for it: the slaves are living under an oppressive government anyway and apparently nobody is going to intervene, so if they're stuck in internment camps, may as well give them something to do with their time. Sure, they don't have freedom, but they weren't going to have it anyway, so it's still rational. Right?
In seriousness - if you don't take into account the economic reliance on slavery that jurisdictions with legal slavery (e.g., the US South in the 1800s) had, and you claim it's solely that irrational slaveholders saw certain people as less than human in the abstract, you've missed a good part of the explanation and risk inaccurately understanding how to prevent it from happening again. People had a strong economic incentive to come up with justifications for their objectively immoral actions.
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#28I thought the "party line" was that private industry doesn't accomplish much if anything, so isn't "big pharma" irrelevant? It makes more sense to demand higher taxes and more basic research.
The reason for this is FDA is fundamentally extremely conservative. The people that run the regulatory system are just faceless bureaucrats and are risk adverse. Their pay is based on seniority and there isn't any financial motivation for them to take risks or stand out. FDA is nothing more then a collection of individuals so the motivation of the agency is a mirror image of the motivations of the people running it.
To put it bluntly:
When diseases like cancer or influenza or kill people the diseases get blamed. But if a drug makes to it market and ends up maiming people or killing them then the FDA gets blamed.
So from the FDA's perspective it's much more important that we have ultra-safe drugs then it is to have new drugs to cure and treat diseases.
The regulators are going to take the default position that more testing and screening and expenses are good. While allowing consumers and doctors to take risks to treat diseases is bad. And over the decades it has just gotten more and more and more and more expensive to get the drugs out to the public.
And since it's too expensive to make new drug companies because of the regulators then you will never see any smaller nimble companies come in and compete with them and force the big companies to behave themselves.
This is why you see all the generic drugs being bought up in the past couple decades. During the Obama administration they signed regulatory changes that rose the cost of validating generic drugs considerably. It wasn't so expensive that it would drive generics from the market, but it's expensive enough that you can't make new generic drug companies. So the big name brand drug companies just buys them all up. And because of that they no longer face competition from generics. They own both the name brands and the generics.
If it was cheaper to make generic drug companies this approach wouldn't work. People would make new companies for the sole purpose of getting bought. It would make buying companies up to kill competition unsustainable.
I've worked in heavily regulated industries before and it's a pretty obvious pattern. Regulators regulate. Costs go up. Competition goes down. And then the big companies become isolated from competition because it's just too expensive to compete with them. Then the government has to bend over backwards to ensure the profitability of these dominate corporations because if they were to go out of business there would never be any replacements.
It's a form of market lock-in. Over regulation effectively becomes a license for these big pharma companies to do pretty much whatever the fuck they want. They love it.
Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#29Re: With no prospects for profits, big pharma neglects new infectious diseases
#30How can you target "new" infectious diseases if they are really "new" every year other than by guessing the right vaccine (as they do e.g. for the flu)? I mean, what worked for SARS won't necessarily work for COVID19, even though it's also a subvariant of SARS. If this is the case, by the time you come up with a drug and take it through all the (extremely costly) stages of testing approval, it'll be too late already,…