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Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

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Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#21

FB down 7% after-markets, while beating estimates TSLA up 12% after-markets, with not so perfect numbers I'm puzzled. Short-Squeeze? Rockstar- vs. Voldemort-CEO? Or did some options-"whale" just sneezed during order execution?

After-hours numbers can be somewhat random and "estimates" are often sand-bagged a bit so that companies will beat them.

With Tesla, deliveries of the Model 3 look good and the company keeps increasing production capacity so if you're a believer in Tesla, they're going in the direction you want with a new plant in China, increased capacity in California, a new model on the way, and a German plant being planned. I think Tesla's earnings beat expectations, but I don't think Tesla is about making money today. Tesla today is more about scaling up production, making cars in more parts of the world, making a new Model Y, etc. And I think along those metrics Tesla is doing quite well. They're shipping a high-volume car that customers are loving, they'll have a cross-over based on that car available soon, they're proving they can open new plants, etc. If you're a believer in Tesla, they're probably hitting the metrics you're interested in and you have realistic expectations about their current earnings which they probably exceeded.

With Facebook, it could be a number of things. Their margins are going down. 2018 had 45% margins which shrank to 34% in 2019. Earnings per share are down 15%. For the quarter, net income was up 8% YoY and margin was only down 4%, but it's not the most encouraging financial numbers. Heck, Facebook increased headcount by 26%, but their daily/monthly active user base is only up 8-9% and revenue is only up 27% so they're employing more people per user and revenue is only scaling with headcount. That's not necessarily bad, but you'd hope that they'd be able to keep margins higher and maybe grow revenue or users faster than headcount.

But it might just be that after-hours numbers don't necessarily indicate what investors will think during a full trading day.

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#22
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

User growth is up, even on Facebook alone. If what you say is true you might expect weekly users to be up-or-flat while daily is declining, as people are locked in to the platform but less engaged with it. But daily users are also up.

Are they your numbers, someone else’s or theirs ? Seems like they’d have a vested interest to claim anything as daily users. Bots, trolls, whatever.

If they're not removing obvious frauds in these numbers, they'll be the target of shareholder class action lawsuits. In general, numbers published by big corporations tend to be reasonably sourced due to this reason - gotchas tend to more subtle.

Privately held company numbers on the other hand are generally much more suspect (Uber before IPO, Snap before IPO, We work, Theranos...)

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#23
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

User growth is up, even on Facebook alone. If what you say is true you might expect weekly users to be up-or-flat while daily is declining, as people are locked in to the platform but less engaged with it. But daily users are also up.

Are they your numbers, someone else’s or theirs ? Seems like they’d have a vested interest to claim anything as daily users. Bots, trolls, whatever.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#24
post #13

They are spending $46 billion a year to keep all that running. Over a million dollars spent per staff member. Wow.

> Over a million dollars spent per staff member. Are you saying that's a lot, or not a lot? At somewhere elite like Facebook many of those staff members are probably being paid about half of that in compensation. And then they have massive server farms to run.

Facebook has 30,000+ employees. There's no way even half of them are getting paid $500k.

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#25
post #13

They are spending $46 billion a year to keep all that running. Over a million dollars spent per staff member. Wow.

Dollars spent per staff member is a metric that should necessarily increase over time as automation increases. Fewer and fewer staff is required for all of the costs.

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#26
post #20
post #13

They are spending $46 billion a year to keep all that running. Over a million dollars spent per staff member. Wow.

Huge spike in general and administrative costs, is that hiring?

Most likely. They still seem to be hiring aggressively at least in Boston and NY

Re: Facebook Financial Results 2019 Q4

#29
post #4

30% of the world is using a Facebook product nearly everyday. What other things do that many people share in their daily routines outside of life's necessities?

That's a good question and really puts it into perspective. From a company-centric focus, and excluding things like "eat food", I thought of:

Google Search/Gmail/Android

iPhone

That was it.

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