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Coronavirus Real Time Map

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Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#21

Post by m12k »

akmarinov wrote: post #13
maayank wrote: post #8

Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#23

Post by chippy »

adhoc32 wrote: post #5

So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?

It might mean, out of those patients being treated (i.e. already very ill with it), rather than total infected?

I was reading somewhere that the doubling in cases in China was mainly due to increasing capacity for hospitals to diagnose the infection rather than an actual measurement of the spread of the disease.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#24

Post by mytailorisrich »

akmarinov wrote: post #13
maayank wrote: post #8

Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

> Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks.

They've reported that strong symptoms occur in only 25% of cases, so if you get it chances are you're just experiencing having a cold (which is caused by a coronavirus).

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#25

Post by contingencies »

chrononaut wrote: post #4

One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital announcements and as such I've found j…

Absolutely. It's marketing bullshit. Nobody has current figures.

In fact, multiple specialist academics said ~3 days ago that only 5% of cases are confirmed, now may be less due to reports of equipment shortages, the additional time the virus has had to disperse geographically, and Chinese New Year. Therefore, we can multiply any official figures by 20x. Official figures are nearing 5,000 cases, which extrapolating from those estimates means we're at around 100,000 infections as of today.

Source: I wrote and am maintaining an animated map of the domestic spread (the one on Wikipedia), over here: https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data... .. powered by two scrapers, main one is from DXY, which is ahead of this 'real time' map by many hours, judging by total figures.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#26

Post by ohitsdom »

akmarinov wrote: post #13
maayank wrote: post #8

Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

> even if half the people get infected

You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't this be on the extreme side?

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#27

Post by sarabande »

m12k wrote: post #21
akmarinov wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.

I'm not an epidemiologist. Anyway, I looked up the most recent CDC flu death estimates for 2018-2019[1]:

34157 dead from 35520883 infected, let's see how much hire a 2% corona virus mortality rate is above the normal flu mortality rate in the US:

>>> .02 / (34157 / 35520883.) 20.798596480955588

About 21 times higher.

[1]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#28

Post by adhoc32 »

chippy wrote: post #23
adhoc32 wrote: post #5

So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?

It might mean, out of those patients being treated (i.e. already very ill with it), rather than total infected? I was reading somewhere that the doubling in cases in China was mainly due to increasing capacity for hospitals to diagnose the infection rather than an actual measurement of the spread of the disease.

that's a reasonable explanation

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#30

Post by coldcode »

akmarinov wrote: post #13
maayank wrote: post #8

Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

Also a question if it will be able to mutate in a larger population, given its long incubation period without symptoms it has more opportunity. I don't know how likely this is. Another question is how long will it continue to expand in reach in China and much affect it will have on the economy.
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