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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#21

Post by ogre_codes »

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that.

[1] Yes, I know about the accidents

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#22

Post by listenallyall »

Level 5 means no human intervention, under any circumstance. Ice, snow, night, fog, unmarked roads, tunnels, mega-urban, isolated rural, parking lots/structures, etc, etc. I think he's correct. It's hard to think of any technology that works without human intervention whatsoever, no matter the conditions.

We've had autopilot for decades, we're certainly not flying planes without pilots. Or even getting them from runway to gate without humans. Nor is anyone claiming that pilot-less planes are coming soon.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#23

Post by rgbrenner »

dx034 wrote: post #17
crusso wrote: post #9

Despite that, he's confident in VW's ability to make a Level 4 autonomous vehicle, saying that the upcoming I.D. Buzz electric van will be the first VW to receive the technology. He's poo-pooing level 5 autonomous driving and says that they just about have a level 4 autonomous vehicle? This article makes no sense. Honestly, the CEO of my company has very little idea of the details of the technology that we produce. I…

He's the CEO of the self driving car division. I'm pretty sure he's well aware of their tech.

Here's a summary of his entire background in order: Formula 1 engineer for many years; Technical director for a Le Mans Prototype vehicle; Head of VWs self driving division for the past 1 year.

He has no software background... he specializes in making gas cars go fast. He has no idea how to make a self driving car.. and honestly, why would we think he would? He hasn't exactly been pioneering vision systems, or anything else related to the tech.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#24

Post by ptx »

ogre_codes wrote: post #21

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that. [1]…

So, considering the accidents, maybe Tesla is "better" at self-driving in the same way Intel was better at speculative execution before they had to patch it.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#25

Post by listenallyall »

robbrown451 wrote: post #3

This strikes me as weird: > "This is one of the hardest problems we have. This is like we are going to Mars," Hitzinger said in a comment. "Maybe it will never happen." First of all, it seems obvious that we are going to go to Mars, eventually. Maybe not any time soon, but never? Seriously? But the bigger thing is that there is about 1000 times more economic benefit to self driving cars than of going to Mars, at leas…

Not reaching Level 5 is not synonymous with "giving up." We could get to 4+, with 90+% of driving being automated, but never actually reach 100% (the definition of Level 5)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#26

Post by rayiner »

aplummer wrote: post #5

To go down in a long list of things executives said wouldn’t happen, that ended up happening.

Read an book on space/aerospace engineering from the 1980s and look at how many things happened. Supersonic was a huge bust. (The Concorde is closer in time to wooden biplanes than to today. Routine supersonic travel still nowhere on the horizon.) Energy technology has been a huge disappointment. When I grew up, we were going to have nuclear fusion, expanding the scope of what society can do. Today we’re back to windmills and we’re told to put on a sweater. AI was of course a huge bust once.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#27

Post by NikolaNovak »

ogre_codes wrote: post #21

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that. [1]…

>>I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now

It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can.

- I'm unlikely to utilize self-driving any time soon

- The stories of their firmware terrify me. And I don't want a DAW and computer games running on my ECU :O

- More pragmatically though, the Tesla UI paradigm is completely foreign to my way of driving/thinking.

I'm looking for a "HOTAS" type UI, where I can do anything I want without taking my eyes and focus off the road. A UI that's one giant screen, that may change position of buttons from minor firmware to another, is basically as scary and alienating concept as I can imagine.

I get that I am in a minority nowadays - a lot of manufacturer's are replacing switches, buttons and knobs with a touchscreen and deep menus, but not thankfully all just yet :|

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#28

Post by rayiner »

shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

What would that help?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#29

Post by 01100011 »

ogre_codes wrote: post #21

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that. [1]…

Is Tesla following accepted industry best practices for designing their algorithms? If not, Tesla is exposing itself to a tremendous amount of liability when their autonomous system fails(and, as software engineers, we know it will fail). I applaud them for pushing the technological envelope and driving expectations. I'm not criticizing them for the damage those failures will cause, because it may be offset by reductions in human caused damage. I'm saying there is established legal precedent that will cost them dearly if they're not properly developing and testing their code(ISO26262, MISRA, etc). See the Toyota accelerator debacle for background.
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