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US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

reuters.com

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Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#21

Post by tooltalk »

dirtyid wrote: post #16
xt00 wrote: post #14

Something tells me that ASML will be the target of China hacking them and trying to get technical info on how to build their own machine. Hate to be pessimistic but I’ll be waiting for that news story to hit in a year or so..

A couple years ago, ASML silicon valley based Chinese employees (not all PRC nationals) sold EUV trade secrets to Chinese/Korean owned XTAL. But ASML CEO dismissed it as state level espionage and hinted the primary beneficiary was Samsung semiconductors. From what I heard ASML goes out of their way to prevent Samsung from reverse engineering their hardware. But it's only a matter of time. ASML is tied to Wassenaar tr…

There appears to be some kind of smear campaign waged against Samsung by its foundry competitor TSMC at national level. Not sure about this insecurity or fake rivalry by Taiwanese tech companies who see Samsung as a major threat (https://phys.org/news/2013-04-taiwan-tech-industry-samsung.h...), but according to Reuters:

ASML rejects Samsung's involvement in IP theft case with rival, APRIL 17, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-spying-samsu...

Samsung invested heavily in both companies XTAL and ASML (and owned at least 5% of the company at one point). Further, Samsung was never in semi-equipment/chemical business -- that's simply not their core competence.

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#23

Post by est31 »

Wars will more and more be fought by remote controlled or autonomous drones. People are more ready to become soldiers if they can stay in a safe country, press some buttons, and their life won't be at stake. Wars will be less unpopular in the countries that deploy those drones. Even traditional forms of combat are increasingly supported by technology.

ASML is a key component here: they build the machines needed to build the chip components of drones. In future wars, having microchip fabs will be as important as having steel mills was in WW2. So ASML has huge strategic importance.

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#24

Post by NicoJuicy »

sremani wrote: post #12
the-dude wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we fight the Russians?

Because Russians want to move their borders to Carpathians to secure their borders given their dwindling demographics (since you can protect will lesser numbers). this is not anything to do with Cold war -- it is natural state of survival. One thing East Europeans get and West Europeans are clueless is the Russian Expansionism. The immediate prescription of half-wits is "Cold War". I did not make the North European P…

Fun facts:

- Europe destroyed the USSR without war.

- Putin gets more resistance protests in Russia because of common sanctions

- Gazprom can't sell with profit within Russia, they need Europe

- Russia invests a lot of percentage of their GDP on military. But it's still nothing compared to Europe ( russia vs europe military spend: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=russia+vs+europe+milit... ). Remember, Europe isn't even spending 2%

- Without Ukraine, Russia can't even use their naval fleet. That's why they are being aggressive. The sanctions of being aggressive are hurting them, but cutting off oil to Europe would hurt them a lot more.

- Europe has never been so close to Moscow. They are more scared than you imagine

- Russia has way more borders to defend than any other country. That's why they are willing to get run over by China. Their relationship will fail sooner or later. China doesn't invest in Russia despite longtime promises. Their relationship will hold untill Putin realizes there is not much to gain or till China doesn't need them anymore.

Russia needs China more ( because of borders ) than the other way around. China also wants more security at it's borders, but it's less of a requirement.

- Russia's and Turkeys relationship is also not that stable. It was because of one man that they talked again, by the use of a special Turkish expression that said: sorry, but not that sorry. Their relationship could hold untill one of both actually tries to improve relations with Europe, not happening soon though.

If Europe would want to hurt Russia, they only need to heavily subsidize renewable resources, that would hurt max. 5% of Russia's GDP. No war required and don't bite the hand that feeds you ;)

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#25

Post by deogeo »

xt00 wrote: post #14

Something tells me that ASML will be the target of China hacking them and trying to get technical info on how to build their own machine. Hate to be pessimistic but I’ll be waiting for that news story to hit in a year or so..

Already happened last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19703909

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#26

Post by est31 »

xt00 wrote: post #14

Something tells me that ASML will be the target of China hacking them and trying to get technical info on how to build their own machine. Hate to be pessimistic but I’ll be waiting for that news story to hit in a year or so..

They are certainly at the cutting edge of semiconductor manufacturing. Given this bliss screen in a 2015 promo video and the general approach to security in the hardware sector, I doubt they are at the cutting edge of securing their own computers: https://youtu.be/ttbaaI5xUcg?t=254

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#27

Post by Zigurd »

cies wrote: post #10
sremani wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American Security guarantees do not come for free. Feeling constrained? then raise an Army and a Navy worth fielding and fighting Russians with out American assistance.

Or create a new NATO that does not repeatedly exclude the Russians[1]. And could also hold a rule not to invade other countries (yes looking at you US). https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/fact-russia-pitch...

To "not repeatedly exclude the Russians" is premature. The Russians have invaded a European ally of the US. There is a path to Russia becoming a welcomed part of Europe and that path leads out of Ukraine.

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#28

Post by dirtyid »

tooltalk wrote: post #21
dirtyid wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A couple years ago, ASML silicon valley based Chinese employees (not all PRC nationals) sold EUV trade secrets to Chinese/Korean owned XTAL. But ASML CEO dismissed it as state level espionage and hinted the primary beneficiary was Samsung semiconductors. From what I heard ASML goes out of their way to prevent Samsung from reverse engineering their hardware. But it's only a matter of time. ASML is tied to Wassenaar tr…

There appears to be some kind of smear campaign waged against Samsung by its foundry competitor TSMC at national level. Not sure about this insecurity or fake rivalry by Taiwanese tech companies who see Samsung as a major threat ( https://phys.org/news/2013-04-taiwan-tech-industry-samsung.h... ), but according to Reuters: ASML rejects Samsung's involvement in IP theft case with rival , APRIL 17, 2019, https://www.reu…

I don't think it's a smear campaign per say, Samsung stole their their way to display tech dominance. It's just recognition that these tactics are still being embraced in lagging industries in some countries. ASML has no-touch policy for Samsung employees for their scanners, they've been pretty savvy in mitigating attempts at copying their tech for the last 20 years.

Also I didn't mean to implicate Samsung was behind the attacks, merely they benefited most from stolen trade secrets - XTAL directly compete against ASML in Korean using the secret. The same way Huawei and BOE will benefit from flexible screen tech stolen by Samsung subcontractor Toptek. So far these have been economically motivated - thieves not spies.

I think state level espionage is going to happen soon, now that ASML has been pressured to pick sides.

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#29

Post by Zigurd »

Trying to keep technology from China is a qualitatively different problem from other technology sanctions. Russia, for example, has half the GDP of France. Denying a technology to Russia is effective because the relative price to Russia to work around technology restrictions is much higher. It costs them, measurably, visibly, in resources not applied to other pressing needs.

In the case of China, an import restriction amounts to an endorsement that replicating that technology is a higher priority for a country that, in general, is entering the first tier of technological powers. Picking fights with benefits that won't evaporate in a short time would be wise.

Re: US Pressed Dutch Gov over ASML Sale

#30

Post by deogeo »

est31 wrote: post #23

Wars will more and more be fought by remote controlled or autonomous drones. People are more ready to become soldiers if they can stay in a safe country, press some buttons, and their life won't be at stake. Wars will be less unpopular in the countries that deploy those drones. Even traditional forms of combat are increasingly supported by technology. ASML is a key component here: they build the machines needed to bu…

You don't need to fight traditional wars if you can dominate economically. Which seems to be what China has been doing so far.
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