Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#21

Post by Fjolsvith » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:13 PM UTC

igorkraw wrote: post #18

kzrdude wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When will incentives ever be aligned with one's own long term interests? There is reason for despair, that competition to survive the day to day - everyone needs to get through their week, month and year - will always detract from the larger concerns about long term sustainability of our civilization and prosperity.

> When will incentives ever be aligned with one's own long term interests? Once we've installed a good global governance system (imo some form of confederation of confederation ala Switzerland) that democratically aggregates preferences and can align the incentives. People like to act like competition is inevitable, forgetting that the main hegemon of the last 50 years has competition as a large part of it's ideology…

> Once we've installed a good global governance system (imo some form of confederation of confederation ala Switzerland) that democratically aggregates preferences and can align the incentives.

This is wishful thinking with more than half the world not involved in democratic governance. But be of good cheer. There's profit to be made where there's crisis.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#22

Post by nl » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:13 PM UTC

bureaucrat wrote: post #16

skilled wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you ask me for data when you can look that up for yourself? I speak from experience.

>I was growing up here in the 90s; we had solid -30 Celsius winters for several months. Where? In your imagination? https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148642/1990/Historical-Weather-... https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148509/1990/Historical-Weather-... https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148455/1990/Historical-Weather-... https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148594/1990/Historical-Weather-...

Charitable, Ufa in Russia gets pretty close: https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148894/1990/Historical-Weather-...

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#23

Post by CalRobert » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:18 PM UTC

supercall wrote: post #2

People's financial incentives are not aligned with the climate's necessary modifications. The two won't be aligned until climate passes over its tipping point and enters an irreversible feedback loop.

Or until we discover how many fewer billions Earth can support at +4C

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#24

Post by beefield » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. What I do say is that even if after reframing the discussion from dichotomy to probability discussion, if you really think that the probability of the scientists being collectively wrong is so small that the science can be ignored, in my books you are so f$&king stupid[1] that you should give up your voting rights.

[1] pardon, I think my french is a bit rusty here.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#25

Post by CalRobert » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

kzrdude wrote: post #9

supercall wrote: post #2

People's financial incentives are not aligned with the climate's necessary modifications. The two won't be aligned until climate passes over its tipping point and enters an irreversible feedback loop.

When will incentives ever be aligned with one's own long term interests? There is reason for despair, that competition to survive the day to day - everyone needs to get through their week, month and year - will always detract from the larger concerns about long term sustainability of our civilization and prosperity.

I worry that we have removed people's moral agency by normalizing huge debts for life's necessities. We have the technology to make housing and education cheap and plentiful, but instead create scarcities and credit to have leverage over the workforce and keep them working in ways they'd prefer not to. I mean, every day I think "but guys seriously shouldn't we use all these computers to work on the metaphorical asteroid heading for Earth??? guys??" But we don't, myself included, because bills.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#26

Post by tiatia » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

skilled wrote: post #6

Living in Eastern Europe right now. It's +6 Celsius for the last week. Earth hasn't frozen yet, so if any snow falls it melts in a few hours. In comparison, when I was growing up here in the 90s; we had solid -30 Celsius winters for several months. You had to prepare opposed to nowadays, where buying a winter jacket comes down to preference. Cold or not cold... But climate change is a hoax, right?

Plural of anecdote is not data.

Taking an educated guess: I am likely better qualified to make statements about "climate change" and I would always refrain from such statements due to the complexity of the subject. But I could agree on using the "precautionary principle" and try to limit CO2 emissions. The current hysteria is not helpful but helpful would be building Thorium and 4th generation nuclear reactors. Both may lead to another kind of hysteria, at least in Europe.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#27

Post by chewbacha » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:26 PM UTC

beefield wrote: post #24

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. W…

I don't think that's a very apt analogy because it still frames the question as to whether something is _going_ to happen.

It's more like you contemplating whether your house is going to burn next year while a fire fighter is telling you it's on fire right now.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#28

Post by brobdingnagians » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

beefield wrote: post #24

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. W…

It is important to distinguish the basis of the change. Whether anthropogenic or of other causes (or, likely, a mix of causes). The same change in weather could have different responses based on the cause. It is also important to talk about what to change. Some governmental/industrial changes could cause the deaths of millions or billions of people (doing absolutely nothing might do the same), it is important to have a civil conversation where the ideas and rights of all are respected, understood, and considered. Oversimplifying is not useful. I'm not arguing for any specific reason or changes, only for civility and all around thoughtfulness. It is a very complex issue that may impact a huge number of factors in society. Great caution, civility, and thought should be given. Even to those who disagree with some conclusions. Advocating for the removal of voting rights for those who disagree so that we can arrange their future for them may be counterproductive.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#29

Post by PeterStuer » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

supercall wrote: post #2

People's financial incentives are not aligned with the climate's necessary modifications. The two won't be aligned until climate passes over its tipping point and enters an irreversible feedback loop.

Thing is the world's climate will not fail us gradually.

Past the 'tipping point' the 'Geo-engineers' will be let out of the asylum and get to deploy their crackpot hail-Mary schemes playing fast and loose with a runaway high dimensional complex feedback system they (or we) barely are beginning to understand.

There is no 'backup' on this planet. There is no 'safety net'. There is no 'oh shit, abort!' button.

An optimist would say we are just going to make sure to speed up the inevitable.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#30

Post by SimplePotato » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:32 PM UTC

Yes everything is completely messed up. Flowers blooming at wrong times of the year, animals are confused, crops are being beaten up by the biggest hail, Winds are getting stronger and this and that etc. Mother earth didn't even show the real teeth yet. When one of the the super Vulcanos wakes up we'll see the real hell on the earth. There is also super hostile environment outside earth but this is for some other space debate.