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Predicting where AI is going in 2020

venturebeat.com

21–30 of 88 posts

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#21
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

I show my 19 month old daughter like three cartoon drawings of owls and she recognises a live one at the bird park instantly, unprompted. We have a way to go.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#22
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

There may be some kind of labeling encoded in genes. One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not.

However, past that, the actual sounds themselves, and any association to meaning, are pretty far from tagged data sets. Stuff like the specifics of language (e.g. that a dog is called 'dog') are definitely learned, and children learn them with typically only a handful of stimuli, often a single one.

For contrast, imagine training a model with raw sound data tagged only with "speech" vs "not speech" (and probably only a few thousand data points at that) and I will be amazed if it can recognize a single word. And babies don't just learn words, they learn their association to things they see and hear, and grammar, and abstract thought.

Do note that it is very likely that human brains can learn all that because they have some good heuristics built in. We definitely know some stuff is "hardware" - object recognition, basic mechanics, recognizing human faces and expression, and others. We are pretty sure higher level stuff is also built in - universal grammar, basic logic, some ability to simulate behavior seen/heard in other humans. This specialized hardware was also most likely learned, but over much, much greater periods of time, through evolution over hundreds of millions of years (since even extremely old animals are capable of picking out objects in the environment, approximating their speed etc).

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#23
post #18

I believe we will (1) find some basic data structures and algorithms to do real AI . (2) At first it will be able to do I/O only via text or simple voice. (3) Due to (1) it will learn very quickly from humans or other sources. (4) Soon it will be genuinely smart , enough, say, to discover and prove new theorems in math, to understand physics and propose new research directions, to understand drama and write good scre…

You believe that we will achieve (1) in 2020? Or do you believe that we will achieve this at some point in general?

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#24

Natural language processing is going to absolutely decimate content on the internet, forcing everyone into walled gardens

This problem is coming from the way providers choose to deliver content, the way they design their data products and the metrics they optimise for. NLP is simply the group of algorithms that power this process, not the underlying cause.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#26
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

There may be some kind of labeling encoded in genes. One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not. However, past that, the actual sounds themselves, and any association to meaning, are pretty far from tagged data sets. Stuff like the specifics of language (e.g. that a dog is called 'dog') are defi…

> One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not.

Well, these sounds come with a face attached and we know babies are hardwired to pay attention to faces.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#27
- individual GPUs will hit a plateau at around 25TFlops in FP32 due to Moore's law and thermal dissipation however it will be easier than ever to interconnect multiple GPUs into large virtual ones due to interconnect tech improvements and modularization of GPU processing units

- only large companies will be able to train and use SOTA models with training costs in $10M-$100M per training run and those models will hit law of diminishing returns quickly

- 50% of all white collar jobs will be automated away, including a significant chunk of CRUD software work. Increased productivity won't be shared back with society, instead two distinct wealth strata of society will be formed worldwide due to scale effects, like in Latin America (99% fighting for their lives).

- AI will make marketing, ads and behavioral programming much more intrusive and practically unavoidable

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#28
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

I show my 19 month old daughter like three cartoon drawings of owls and she recognises a live one at the bird park instantly, unprompted. We have a way to go.

I believe cartoons are our equivalent of adversarial images. They typically look nothing like (photos of) their namesake and yet we recognise them usually without prompting.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#30
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

There may be some kind of labeling encoded in genes. One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not. However, past that, the actual sounds themselves, and any association to meaning, are pretty far from tagged data sets. Stuff like the specifics of language (e.g. that a dog is called 'dog') are defi…

> One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not.

I don't see how that's safe to assume at all. What one could assume is the level of familiarity and comfort (sight, smell, touch) might be somewhat genetic and gives such inputs precedence. OR it might just be that those sources of information are engaging and animated.

> Do note that it is very likely that human brains can learn all that because they have some good heuristics built in.

Nor do I see this assumption having any weight, many of the heuristics we take for granted were hard fought, its just so long ago that we've forgotten the fight. Lets not forget how "little" our species gets over the first few YEARS of child development. If your child can move their body, just about walk and talk a little at TWO WHOLE YEARS in, they're an achiever.

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