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No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

dominiccummings.com

21–30 of 35 posts

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#21
post #18

That seems surprisingly coherent actually. Freakishly so Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies. Maybe they're better at playing the fool than I gave them credit for

His reading list is excellent.

I enjoy many of the same thinkers he does, and it pains me that Cummings associates himself with the rationalists. Alan Kay and Paul Graham will be unaffected by being name-dropped I’m sure. Lesswrong and slate star I fear might not, which would be a shame.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alanwh...

https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/

I wonder whether Cummings’ main flaw is that he admires scientists and rationalists too much, to the extent that his plans rely on them to solve problems he is deliberately creating, confident they can be overcome.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#22
post #8

Dominic Cummings, Steve Bannon, Olavo de Carvalho, Amit Shah, endless number of similar clones in EU...just amazing to watch what kind of people are getting propped up by the attention economy.

Cummings shares some qualities with the rest of that list, but he’s not a nationalist if you believe his extensive blogging.

Although he is comfortable using the language of nationalism, which perhaps amounts to the same thing practically.

I’m also not sure how right wing he really is. He seems fairly liberal in his own views on immigration, race and so on. Although again, he panders to those with different views.

I don’t agree with Cummings on many things, but I don’t think it’s fair to put him in a list with those other names.

I stand to be corrected. It’s possible I misunderstand him. He’s hard to misunderstand.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#23
A lot of odd and downright false assertions ITT. Anti-Brexit people are too often mistakenly conflating Cummings/Johnson and Farage as if everyone in favour of Brexit has precisely the same views. In reality they ran two different campaigns in very different styles and in fact one of Vote Leave's main aims was to keep Farage off the TV as much as possible because he was (and is) a turn off to the majority and presumably most swing voters.

I voted Remain at the time, but stumbling across Cummings' blogs and subsequently reading about Tetlock [0] + David Deutsch's arguments [1] has left me in favour of Leave (although I don't have strongly nailed down views on this).

This project is a great idea to improve the effectiveness of government by creating tools that will help ministers and officials make better decisions in the face of complex systems. Will it work? I'm optimistic but there will surely be unknown unknowns that could derail progress in addition to plain old politics.

[0] - Superforecasting is a great book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction...

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdtssXITXuE

Also, Timothy Gowers (Fields Medallist) has an interesting piece in favour Remain [2], although he overlooks the fact that differences in institutional design of UK vs EU mean that sovereignty has significant implications beyond just sovereignty for sovereignty's sake.

[2] - https://gowers.wordpress.com/2016/06/02/6172/

Edit: Would love to hear counterarguments from downvoters btw. I don't mean that in a hostile way, I've changed my mind on this topic many times in the past 3 years and I'd be more than happy to be exposed to more good arguments against Brexit and Cummings' ideas.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#24

Dominic Cummings is a problem in UK politics.

If this was Corbyns advisor and Corbyn was in power how would people feel about a data driven approach to disrupting politics? For left leaning folk don't like cummings new style, does that mean they are thinking conservatively about government? I think this is an interesting thought experiment?

Hey, a left-leaning folk here (in that I broadly approve of Labour’s manifesto, if not its execution or current leadership).

The things Cummings gets right are already well-discussed, among the lefties in my social group at least. And he gets a fair bit of not-entirely-negative analysis in the Guardian.

I like almost everything Cummings says about data-driven government. That’s all fine. But that’s also not what people are generally taking exception to.

On the other hand, I think Seumas Milne is terrifying. Perhaps more so than Cummings, were Milne to have actual power.

You use the expression “left-leaning”. Cummings himself demonstrates the limits of simple left/right, liberal/conservative labels. He’s a little bit of all of those things. He’s not a Conservative party member, for example. Immigration doesn’t bother him personally.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#25

Does this sound like Downing Street is gearing-up for mass surveillance, post-Brexit, or is it just me?

I think this is about improving decision-making and effectiveness of government. I'm not an expert but I imagine a surveillance play would be handled via MI5 (domestic security) and not Downing Street. Moreover, Johnson is vaguely libertarian.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#26
post #18

That seems surprisingly coherent actually. Freakishly so Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies. Maybe they're better at playing the fool than I gave them credit for

His reading list is excellent. I enjoy many of the same thinkers he does, and it pains me that Cummings associates himself with the rationalists. Alan Kay and Paul Graham will be unaffected by being name-dropped I’m sure. Lesswrong and slate star I fear might not, which would be a shame. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alanwh... https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/ I wonder…

To me, it's rather strange that he calls on "unusual economists" but apparently one of the requirements for being unusual is simply knowledge of mainstream theories. Surely the unusual economists are the post-Keynesians, Sraffians, Marxians and Austrians. In fact, even a Nobel Prize winner like Sen would be more unusual than anyone he's summoning with that list. From the topics he lists as what might be discussed, it seems he's much more interested in economics grads with an interest in AI than in economics grads with, say, an interest in Veneziani and Yoshihara's work on mathematical proofs of FMT or Roemer's game-theoretical approach to capitalist markets.

For all the talk of being "rational", the "rationalsphere" and unfortunately now a UK government minister have neglected learning about social science, political philosophy, and the critiques of utilitarianism in favour of... what, I'm not sure. One starts to see this repeatedly; Scott Alexander's only encounter with Marxian sociology, for instance, comes from a "Very Short Introduction" book by Peter Singer of all people. Even subject areas one would expect would appeal to them, such as game-theoretic Rational Choice Marxian economics have completely missed their radar.

Perhaps it would be better if Cummings were to educate himself on the wealth of heterodox economics (and I say this just because he wants "weirdos"), political philosophy and sociology - because at the moment it looks like he wouldn't hire a Nozick, Friedman or Roemer, and he definitely wouldn't hire a Rawls, Sen or Marx.

"Unusual" for this man means "rationalist", technocratic, LessWrong reader, and capitalist free market evangelist.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#27
post #18

That seems surprisingly coherent actually. Freakishly so Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies. Maybe they're better at playing the fool than I gave them credit for

> Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies

...which worked. If we accept what you are saying as true then it merely demonstrates the utter incompetence of the Remain crowd at effective communication (that they weren't even able to refute 'low quality lies'), which is kind of an important thing in a political debate.

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#28

This is A+ language to hide that he simply wants to hire people with the same worldview/mindset as himself irrespective of qualifications and civil service rules. Telling also that this is posted on his private blog, not an official government site. He will rip the country apart, make a huge profit for himself and his friends (like Farage) and leave a bloody mess. Damage for decades as we see already now with Britain…

> his friends (like Farage)

Err...

'The Daily Telegraph reported on Cummings's past rivalry with Nigel Farage from the 2016 referendum campaign, and quoted Farage as saying that: "He has never liked me. He can't stand the ERG. I can't see him coming to any accommodation with anyone. He has huge personal enmity with the true believers in Brexit"'

Re: No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos

#30
post #18

That seems surprisingly coherent actually. Freakishly so Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies. Maybe they're better at playing the fool than I gave them credit for

> Everything else the brexit crowd has produced is a steaming PoS of low quality lies ...which worked. If we accept what you are saying as true then it merely demonstrates the utter incompetence of the Remain crowd at effective communication (that they weren't even able to refute 'low quality lies'), which is kind of an important thing in a political debate.

Agreed.

But if we’ve learned anything from the last 4 years it’s that “low quality lies” (which I’ll read as “obvious untruths”) presenting a simple message are fiendishly, fiendishly difficult to defend against when the truth is complex and unpalatable.

It’s an important job to be able to cope with lies, certainly (ideally without lying in turn). But it’s not easy.

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