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A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

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Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#21

Post by alasdair_ »

jacquesm wrote: post #6
modeless wrote: post #4

It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

There will also be a whole bunch of completely empty cars waiting close to areas where people get picked up.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#22

Post by rootsofallevil »

optimiz3 wrote: post #15
viburnum wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much transporting is just to mitigate land use failures. More transportation is solving the wrong problem.

So much health care is just to mitigate population control failures. More health care is solving the wrong problem. So much computing is just to mitigate math education failures. More computing is solving the wrong problem. Etc. Thank goodness some people are willing to innovate.

No OP but I think you are misunderstanding the position:

Solve the land misuse problem and everything else follows

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#23

Post by [deleted] »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

[deleted]

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#24

Post by CydeWeys »

alasdair_ wrote: post #20
amarshall wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then you’ll likely have a bunch of extra traffic created from the cars going to and from their owner to parking, rather than just to and from their destination. Or from the car just circling the block because the owner would rather not have to wait long for its return.

The “circling the block” is something that Uber etc. already exacerbate. I think one solution would be to charge for each minute you are in a congested area to avoid having a whole bunch of empty cars clogging the streets.

There's a big limit on how bad it can be with Uber though because each Uber is currently driven by an actual person. That person costs money and places a natural limit on how many unutilized Ubers there will be.

With AVs, this limit no longer exists, and people will start using AVs for runs that currently are prohibitively expensive with care that require drivers.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#25

Post by CydeWeys »

kps wrote: post #12
kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

Single-person cars can be half width and share a lane, and run much closer together at speed.

This is only really a wide savings once manually-driven cars are banned from the roads entirely.

How long, if ever, do you think it will be for that to happen?

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#26

Post by semiotagonal »

mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #19

Isn’t this just Jevons Paradox applied to driving? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

This reminds me of how my own behavior changed when Amazon Locker arrived. I could order what I wanted, and have it delivered up the street without having it stolen off of my porch!

Now I'll order something off Amazon, then 30 minutes later think of something else I need, then 10 minutes after that get another item, and then I've got 3 separate shipments taking up 3 spaces in the lockers, because to me there's no cost to the lack of planning.

When Amazon tells me the lockers are full, I become furious.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#27

Post by beamatronic »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

Cars are a dead end. No matter who drives them. We need subways like Manhattan. Or at least like the DC metro. Eminent domain and political willpower is all it takes.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#28

Post by CydeWeys »

maxerickson wrote: post #14
viburnum wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much transporting is just to mitigate land use failures. More transportation is solving the wrong problem.

Solving it is better than continuing to live with it.

The point they're making is that the only possible solution is to solve the land use problem, so that the majority of people can live lives that don't require individual automobiles. Broadly speaking, this means building densely enough that walking, biking, and mass transit are suitable for most trips.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#29

Post by m-i-l »

mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #19

Isn’t this just Jevons Paradox applied to driving? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Or the Lewis–Mogridge Position[0] which is that "traffic expands to meet the available road space", i.e. building more roads (thinking it will improve traffic congestion) usually ends up making the traffic congestion worse.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis%E2%80%93Mogridge_Positio...

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#30

Post by abyssin »

im3w1l wrote: post #2

Imagine a job where you work for 3h out of an autonomous office-furnished RV, have meetings and lunch for 2.5h and then work for 3h in the car again. You could live where land is really cheap! And you wouldn't need to sit in an open office. Better hope your mileage is good though.

Better hope there's no issue with the pollution caused by the energy needed for the additional commutes.
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