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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. The only remaining question is when.
Within the year of 2020? Do you think? I really don't know... suppose you don't either.
So should I pull out on all my stocks and stuff everything into bonds then?
Personally, I don't see much upside left in equities for next year or two, but I'm a perma-bear and have been wrong many times before :D
Plus there's not a lot of easy places to stuff money at the moment, hence big investors sitting on piles of cash.
the lenders* themselves had borrowed too much
the lenders didn’t know they had borrowed so much
the ratings agencies were not judging the merit of the investments that lenders had invested in
*by lender I mean the ultimate party reliant on payments from the mortgage borrower
much was done to add transparency and safeguards to that specific issue, so just because lending standards are loose again doesn't mean there is systemic incestuous exposure to losses and collateral calls to the world’s most financially important institutions
happy trading
Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...
So should I pull out on all my stocks and stuff everything into bonds then?
As always, depends on your appetite for risk and your timeframe for using the money. Personally, I don't see much upside left in equities for next year or two, but I'm a perma-bear and have been wrong many times before :D Plus there's not a lot of easy places to stuff money at the moment, hence big investors sitting on piles of cash.
I bought some gold today. Unrelated to this but I have recently decided to have 10% of my portfolio in gold as a safe guard.
Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
One of these days the gold bugs will be right. This might be the one...
Gold has always been touted as a hedge against inflation, it's not, it's a hedge against financial system instability, inflation being a major symptom of such instability.
So should I pull out on all my stocks and stuff everything into bonds then?
this is no different. you have to factor in potential lost growth when you go risk averse mode; it's against our loss aversion bias but has to be done when thinking long term.