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Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

theatlantic.com

21–30 of 156 posts

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#21
"You might not have heard about these “real tech” companies—like Zscaler, Anaplan, and Smartsheet—because they mostly sell business-to-business software or cloud services. But all of them are trading more than 100 percent above their listed IPO price."

All of those are also down significantly from their all time high though.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#22
post #8
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is real. Uber, AirBnB, WeWork and all the other 'lawbreaking as a service' and 'subsidizing transactions with massive VC' companies are not.

Uber has a market cap of like 50 billion. It's real. It's no Apple or Google though.

The whole thing is asinine.

They've never made money and they never will. If they haven't gotten after 10 years they wont get it.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#23
post #3

“ The problem with tech today isn’t so much that software failed to eat the world, but that the most celebrated unicorns weren’t actually software companies. They have struggled to achieve liftoff because their feet are stuck in the mud of the physical world” This sums it up nicely. Investors got deluded enough to think that if they threw enough money at a non-software company it would magically start making software…

Yeah. Software's marginal cost can theoretically be zero, and in practice is is pretty close to that. Thinking of marginal cost for real estate I don't think there are economies of scale to be had beyond traditional merging of horizontals. Is tenant experience really the real estate largest cost? I don't think so -- land and construction is where you want to focus your efforts. That being said I have no idea what I'm talking out, this is just layman intuition.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxi and hotel businesses deserved a little punch in the gut.

Be gentle please, I understand and agree that these industries got complacent but these are people. I think our societies should integrate this 'kick' phases to make them smoother and more respectable rather than have toxic competitors attack them.

yes, state sponsored 'economic efficiency' purges. what could possibly go wrong?

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#25
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is real. Uber, AirBnB, WeWork and all the other 'lawbreaking as a service' and 'subsidizing transactions with massive VC' companies are not.

Taxi and hotel businesses deserved a little punch in the gut.

Why hotel businesses? There are many different hotel brands to choose from, pricing is transparent, photos/reviews are available on many websites, customer service at the chains take care of complaints pretty well, and there has been a ton of new hotel room supply added.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#26
There's a fantastic book that just came out in ... 1954 ... that I'd highly recommend. John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash, 1929.

https://www.worldcat.org/title/great-crash-1929/oclc/3136579...

The tech and land booms of the time involved Florida real estate, railroads (a/k/a airlines), airlines (actual aircraft involved), "Radio" (RCA), new alternative energy source and distribution plays, and of course, Goldman Sachs.

I'd first read it following the 2007-8 global financial crisis. It's still relevant now. Short, highly readable, entertaining, and informative.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxi and hotel businesses deserved a little punch in the gut.

Why hotel businesses? There are many different hotel brands to choose from, pricing is transparent, photos/reviews are available on many websites, customer service at the chains take care of complaints pretty well, and there has been a ton of new hotel room supply added.

Not as many pervert, I mean, "security" cams in the hotel rooms either.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#28
All that’s happening is that the market is calling BS on companies that lack sound business fundamentals. The days of valuing companies sky high that are deeply unprofitable but “it’s OK because we’re a tech company so it doesn’t matter” are over.

This is ultimately a good thing for companies with real businesses that were for much of recent history valued far less than those that had no clear prospects of making a profit. See all the writings about IWG vs WeWork on some of the previous insanity there.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#29
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is I don’t think investors got deluded, I think investors new exactly what they’re doing. They were hoping some greater fool would take the investment off their hands

That's not investing, that's speculation.

Welcome to Venture Capital.

Re: Today’s correction isn’t much like the dot-com bubble

#30
post #7

It's an incredible mix of hubris (on the startup's part) and delusion (on the investors part) to call some of these "tech companies". Like WeWork. It's a real estate company that should be valued like a real estate company. But somehow everyone concurred that it is, indeed, a tech company. How or why, no one bothered to ask.

It’s easy to get rose tinted glasses and call a firm a “tech company” when it has the growth profile that wework did. What everyone forgot is that the other thing “tech multiples” require is high margins.
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